Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Armchair Cyclist]

I can only conclude that you are applying some sort of logical fallacy whereby you conclude that if Red Bull are very unlikely to win using the balanced team approach, they become more likely to do so with an unbalanced selection.

If we say that they have a 5% chance of victory by a traditional team selection, do you accept the logical possibility that a different strategy might have a lower, say 2%, possibility?

And if you believe that there is a selection that would give a significantly higher possibility, do you think that you are being reasonable by claiming that you know what that is, and that it is as simplistic as you suggest, and yet it is something that you cannot point to any example of any professional team manager ever having tried? (and did you not know that GT teams comprised 9 riders for many decades?)

If we take a figure of 5% as Red Bull's chances of winning with the sort of balanced team that most here are advocating, what probability of victory would you suggest your proposed line up might offer?

 

[bNator]

and did you not know that GT teams comprised 9 riders for many decades?

What good are those decades if Roglic didn’t race back then? 🤪

 

[Cycling111]

Primoz Roglic: "Winning the Tour de France is still the big dream"

Primoz Roglic: "Ganar el Tour de Francia sigue siendo el gran sueño"

El corredor repasó en MARCA durante el Criterium de Saitama su momento actual, su ambición, la espina clavada de 2020 y la evolución del equipo, con la mirada puesta en volver a luchar por la 'Grande Boucle'

www.marca.com

 

[Berniece]

Primoz Roglic: "Winning the Tour de France is still the big dream"

Primoz Roglic: "Ganar el Tour de Francia sigue siendo el gran sueño"

El corredor repasó en MARCA durante el Criterium de Saitama su momento actual, su ambición, la espina clavada de 2020 y la evolución del equipo, con la mirada puesta en volver a luchar por la 'Grande Boucle'

www.marca.com

Stacked team with Roglic, Lipo and Evenepoel

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Armchair Cyclist

While we are at professionalism, do you reckon you would get selected, as the Tour DS for RBH, claiming you will send a balanced team with 5% chance for the overall win in the 2026 season?

As for the suggestion, to sends the climbers orientated roster, compared to fearing the Tour might get lost on the flats and just to be sure to send a couple of stage hunters and sprinters along. IMHO yes, that has substantially higher chances to win the overall, compared to RBH leader isolated whilst reaching each penultimate climb. I read in RBH thread people would send a RBH sprinter section to the Giro in the 2026 season, last year most still suggested the Tour and a bunch of riders for stage hunting. So there is that, an improvement.

This is obviously the most feasible RBH strategy for the Tour 2026:

Rogla, Lipo and Remco to persistently apply pressure on the ultimate climb(s), strong climbers orientated team to support them to launch successfully and/or to apply some pressure early on, riders from the plan B moving in the break often to apply pressure, for a potential stage win, or more.

Dunking Devils na najdrznejšem zračnem poligonu na svetu

Slovenska ekipa Dunking Devils Squad je v Red Bullovem globalnem spektaklu Ultimate Aerial Obstacle Course navdušila s svojim trojnim človeškim katapultom, ki je postal eden ključnih prizorov projekta. Sodelovanje predstavlja vrhunec njihovega

www.dnevnik.si

Can they crash and burn? Possibly. And even if they would then still a plethora of options for stage wins involved. Will they fail with the "flat" approach? Nobody is saying otherwise.

What good are those decades if Roglic didn’t race back then? 🤪

So true and it applies for at least mid term future too, after Rogla.

Stacked team with Roglic, Lipo and Evenepoel

As for the ego debate, they can use their egos to fight people that give them low chances to succeed, compared to using their egos to prove the doubters right.

ANALYSIS: The three career-defining landmarks Primoz Roglic could hit in 2026

Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe may be heading into 2026 with what many are already calling a “fantasy team”, but Primoz Roglic could still define the season ahead in ways that go far beyond the transfer...

cyclinguptodate.com

Seems like a record packed season is ahead. Before that some much needed Goni Pony at play to ease the tension:

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[Armchair Cyclist]

@Armchair Cyclist

While we are at professionalism, do you reckon you would get selected, as the Tour DS for RBH, claiming you will send a balanced team with 5% chance for the overall win in the 2026 season?

You seem determined not to engage seriously enough in discussion to pay attention to what I wrote, so a far as I am concerned the discussion is over.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Armchair Cyclist

I feel that this answered your question:

As for the suggestion, to sends the climbers orientated roster, compared to fearing the Tour might get lost on the flats and just to be sure to send a couple of stage hunters and sprinters along. IMHO yes, that has substantially higher chances to win the overall, compared to RBH leader isolated whilst reaching each penultimate climb. I read in RBH thread people would send a RBH sprinter section to the Giro in the 2026 season, last year most still suggested the Tour and a bunch of riders for stage hunting. So there is that, an improvement.

 

[AmRacer]

@Armchair Cyclist

I feel that this answered your question:

The best RBBH TdF team isn't the team you think.

 

[CyclistAbi]

The best RBBH TdF team isn't the team you think.

We'll see.

 

[Berniece]

@CyclistAbi whats your preferred schedule for Roglic next year? It’ll be announced tomorrow

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Berniece

Tour with Remco and Lipo plus with additional strong climbers support. As for the rest that is a bit less important to me as Rogla can win the rest with weaker team too. I would like if Rogla is there on when Remco wins his first prestigious one week stage race, maybe early in the season, and if they split the wins in between them whilst both racing LBL and Flèche, that works for me too.

If nothing will come of that and Rogla goes to races like ToS and Vuelta, due to team rather choosing other riders for the Tour, them believing Rogla should sit at the bench in 2026 season, regarding Tour, that is perfectly fine with me too. There is always season 2027 after and my heart says Vuelta anyway.

 

[red_flanders]

We'll see.

We won’t, because they’ll obviously not send the team you imagine. Because they’re, you know…accountable for the teams performance, not myopic Roglic fans posting on a message board.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I forgot to mention Giro above. As for if Rogla won't undertake the Tour then Giro route is IMHO rather perfect for him and i wouldn't mind Giro-Vuelta attempt in the 2026 season.

We won’t, because they’ll obviously not send the team you imagine. Because they’re, you know…accountable for the teams performance, not myopic Roglic fans posting on a message board.

Accountable for losing upfront?

 

[aphronesis]

ToS and Vuelta are unrealistic?

 

[CyclistAbi]

ToS and Vuelta are unrealistic?

Likely scheduled regardless of any other goals.

 

[YavorD]

@Armchair Cyclist

I feel that this answered your question:

But your leader won't be isolated because (if we imagine it's Evenepoel), you'll have Lipowitz plus one more climber.
Besides, there are really not many stages where you may lose because you're isolated. If your leader(s) can't stay with Pogacar/Vingegaard it really doesn't matter how much support they have.

 

[aphronesis]

Likely scheduled regardless of any other goals.

I know. I was wondering (not you) about the nonpolemicized takes.

 

[CyclistAbi]

But your leader won't be isolated because (if we imagine it's Evenepoel), you'll have Lipowitz plus one more climber.
Besides, there are really not many stages where you may lose because you're isolated. If your leader(s) can't stay with Pogacar/Vingegaard it really doesn't matter how much support they have.

No, on the ultimate climb you won't have Rogla, Remco or Lipo at your side, that as you say would be to easy for Pogi and Jonas. If in good form you might have somebody like Alex, Dani or Giulio. Rogla, Remco and Lipo are always attacking, on the part of the terrain that suits them the most. Obviously always with a stellar prep done by the rest of the team.

 

[YavorD]

No, on the ultimate climb you won't have Rogla, Remco or Lipo at your side, that as you say would be to easy for Pogi and Jonas. If in good form you might have somebody like Alex, Dani or Giulio. Rogla, Remco and Lipo are always attacking, on the part of the terrain that suits them the most. Obviously always with a stellar prep done by the rest of the team.

Yeah, right. Because UAE and Visma doesn't have strong enough teams to control whoever of the ones you mentioned attacks.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yeah, right. Because UAE and Visma doesn't have strong enough teams to control whoever of the ones you mentioned attacks.

Whilst climbing they don't, as for the flats i am rather counting on that. Here RBH will be rather weak but who cares. They would lose anyway if they would be strong on the flats. And besides, there isn't a crosswind strong enough that would cost Rogla and Remco more then a minute, worst case, after all both Olympians and can even afford to drag along somebody like Quintana. When heated battle for positions on the flat is ongoing, here they will be weak(er), but in the end who cares. In the end they don't even have to be at the front, for as long as there is at least six of them emerging on the ultimate climb, emerging consistently.

 

[YavorD]

Whilst climbing they don't, as for the flats i am rather counting on that. Here RBH will be rather weak but who cares. They would lose anyway if they would be strong on the flats. And besides, there isn't a crosswind strong enough that would cost Rogla and Remco more then a minute, worst case, after all both Olympians and can even afford to drag along somebody like Quintana. When heated battle for positions on the flat is ongoing, here they will be weak(er), but in the end who cares. In the end they don't even have to be at the front, for as long as there is at least six of them emerging on the ultimate climb, emerging consistently.

Lol at climbing they don't...
Narvaez dropped Lipowitz, Sep Kuss dropped him twice (I think), fairly sure a full strength Jorgenson might be able to. Almeida/Del Toro are without a doubt capable of dropping him, same goes to Simon on a good day.
So in short, if UAE/Visma helpers are capable of dropping Lipowitz, no climbing support will help you.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@YavorD

As i wrote above the idea here isn't for somebody like Lipo to get dropped in the first place, he instead will need to go for the win. All of them will, at some point. As for riders like Kuss, Narvaez, Almeida, Del Toro, Jorgenson chasing them. Obviously, that is the whole point. That is at least until they don't.

 

[YavorD]

@YavorD

As i wrote above the idea here isn't for somebody like Lipo to get dropped in the first place, he instead will need to go for the win. All of them will, at some point. As for riders like Kuss, Narvaez, Almeida, Del Toro, Jorgenson chasing them. Obviously, that is the whole point. That is at least until they don't.

But the point is, even if he goes, the above mentioned riders are strong enough to control him.
And once they catch him, he'll naturally be dropped and will lose minutes. Thus will be out of contention while Roglic and Evenepoel are probably dropped in the process, so no. Your climbing oriented team won't help you, unless a storm takes half of the UAE and Visma teams down.