Teams & Riders Fabio Aru discussion thread

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Re: Re:

SafeBet said:
Jspear said:
Was it that impressive? I mean who did he beat?
Moscon, Caruso, Nibali, Felline, Colbrelli, Trentin, Ulissi among others.
Pretty much every good italian rider atm.
I know. I guess I was reacting to this hype being applied to a good result at the Tour. He might get a good result at the Tour, but beating this field doesn't really give you any indication of that. These riders are far from having what it takes to compete in the Tour.
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
SafeBet said:
Jspear said:
Was it that impressive? I mean who did he beat?
Moscon, Caruso, Nibali, Felline, Colbrelli, Trentin, Ulissi among others.
Pretty much every good italian rider atm.
I know. I guess I was reacting to this hype being applied to a good result at the Tour. He might get a good result at the Tour, but beating this field doesn't really give you any indication of that. These riders are far from having what it takes to compete in the Tour.
Well, Nibali is a pretty good rider. Caruso came in stellar form off a great result in Switzerland and Ulissi is a decent rider as well. And he did put time into all these riders on the flat as well. That said, I do agree that this is no guarantee that he will perform well at the Tour, but the form certainly seems great.
 
Re: Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
Jspear said:
SafeBet said:
Jspear said:
Was it that impressive? I mean who did he beat?
Moscon, Caruso, Nibali, Felline, Colbrelli, Trentin, Ulissi among others.
Pretty much every good italian rider atm.
I know. I guess I was reacting to this hype being applied to a good result at the Tour. He might get a good result at the Tour, but beating this field doesn't really give you any indication of that. These riders are far from having what it takes to compete in the Tour.
Well, Nibali is a pretty good rider. Caruso came in stellar form off a great result in Switzerland and Ulissi is a decent rider as well. And he did put time into all these riders on the flat as well. That said, I do agree that this is no guarantee that he will perform well at the Tour, but the form certainly seems great.
Nibali had no business in the championship, first race in a month, though he hanged on until the last part. Visconti should have been Bahrain's card but he abandoned. Anyway, impressive win by Aru, first one day race which means it is indicative for his current form but in no way should mean he is elevated to one of the favorites for TdF. I'd say a podium would be a very good result but realistically he is top 5 material, Froome, Quintana, Porte and Contador are all normally better than the best Aru.
 
Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
Hugo Koblet said:
Jspear said:
SafeBet said:
Jspear said:
Was it that impressive? I mean who did he beat?
Moscon, Caruso, Nibali, Felline, Colbrelli, Trentin, Ulissi among others.
Pretty much every good italian rider atm.
I know. I guess I was reacting to this hype being applied to a good result at the Tour. He might get a good result at the Tour, but beating this field doesn't really give you any indication of that. These riders are far from having what it takes to compete in the Tour.
Well, Nibali is a pretty good rider. Caruso came in stellar form off a great result in Switzerland and Ulissi is a decent rider as well. And he did put time into all these riders on the flat as well. That said, I do agree that this is no guarantee that he will perform well at the Tour, but the form certainly seems great.
Nibali had no business in the championship, first race in a month, though he hanged on until the last part. Visconti should have been Bahrain's card but he abandoned. Anyway, impressive win by Aru, first one day race which means it is indicative for his current form but in no way should mean he is elevated to one of the favorites for TdF. I'd say a podium would be a very good result but realistically he is top 5 material, Froome, Quintana, Porte and Contador are all normally better than the best Aru.
Well I would put a question mark on how good is Porte in 3 week race. I rate best Aru higher than him. Porte could prove me wrong in couple of weeks though...
 
Apr 9, 2017
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Aru looked in flying form at the National Championship. He didn't beat anyone in Tour-contending form, but he did what he was supposed to against lesser riders. He smashed them up the climb and actually extended his time gap against a chasing group of 4.

The biggest wildcard is the route. It feels like everybody believes that the parcours suit their favorite's rivals.
 
Re:

Pippo_San said:
Nibbles in 2014 wore the Italian Champ jersey at the Tour.
We all know how it ended.
Made me wonder how many times the Tour has been won by a reigning national champion. My initial thought was "not that often," but it does happen from time to time;

Ullrich (97), Riis (96), Fignon (84), Hinault (78), Merckx (1970), Kubler (50), Coppi (49) all did it.

Andy Schleck was national TT champ in 2010, as was Contador in 09.
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
movingtarget said:
Blanco said:
[quote="

Yet is was Aru that cracked last year and finished behind Porte.

True, but looking at 2014/2015 (and 2013 Giro) that seems to be the exception rather than the rule. He seems in much better shape this time round too.


I think you have to admit also that Porte is an improved rider especially over the past season and a half. When he was a domestique, Aru was already riding for GC. Aru has been off with an injury so I'm not sure why his prep would be better this year. But the break has probably freshened him up. Remains to be seen if his form continues until the end of the Tour. I have some doubts about both the Astana riders but then I have doubts many of the others being able to win or podium as well. On paper this race looks unpredictable which isn't a bad thing for the fans. As usual it's all about Froome and Sky and how they turn up but with the short TTs Froome will have to be more aggressive in the mountains this year. Last year I think he was thinking of the Vuelta and riding conservatively on the climbs knowing that he could make good time in the longer TTs.
 
Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
Mayomaniac said:
Rollthedice said:
It was a dominant performance. After Cataldo pulled like mad making the final selection, Aru dropped all with a vicious attack on the last climb and never looked back. He is definitely ready for Le Tour., might surprise a few.
He also said that Cataldo will ride the Tour with him as a domestique.
TdF team: Aru, Cataldo, Fuglsang, Grivko, Gruzdev, Kozhatayev, Lutsenko, Valgren, Zeits
Cataldo is the only one, who can be expected to be there in the mountains, when there is 25-30 riders left..... while both Sky and Movistar will be there with 4-5 riders each.

It leaves the team with fewer options.... though ofcourse, in the end, options mean nothing, if you don't have the legs.

For us viewers it's great, because it forces either Fuglsang or Aru (more likely) to attack early - especially in a tour with few mountain finishes.... at least if they have ambitions to win, rather than just placing top 5.

- unless ofcourse Lutsenko or Valgren really step it up on the big climbs..... like we saw Voigt do a couple of times.... I could see Valgren doing something extraordinary, because he is riding for a countryman for the first time.

I'll be looking for Fuglsang to attack downhill several times - like his former boss used to do ;) - The Dauphine showed only Froome can match him downhill (with obviously Bardet and Valverde in the mix, if they are in position when it goes down)..... and it showed that Porte is vulnerable.... which is also somewhat true for Quintana, Contador and indeed Aru.

If we get rain some of those days, the differences made downhill can be huge.

On the flipside, I see Porte, Quintana, Contador and Aru, attacking the climbs a bit earlier.

And then it's anybodyes guess, what the shape of the Yates/Chavez 1-2 punch is..... they might also very well try early, though I must admit I don't recall their downhill skills...

Should get interesting.
 
Re: Re:

[/quote]Cataldo is the only one, who can be expected to be there in the mountains, when there is 25-30 riders left..... while both Sky and Movistar will be there with 4-5 riders each.

It leaves the team with fewer options.... though ofcourse, in the end, options mean nothing, if you don't have the legs.

For us viewers it's great, because it forces either Fuglsang or Aru (more likely) to attack early - especially in a tour with few mountain finishes.... at least if they have ambitions to win, rather than just placing top 5.[/quote]

I think that on the early GC relevant stages that Astana will be on the defensive. As you say, when there are 25-30 riders left in the bunch (and there will be with only 5 kms to go on many early stages) is when Astana will be at a numerical disadvantage.

However, on stages such as 12, 17 and 18 we should see a much clearer "heads of state" picture, and still some way out from the finish we might be down to just a half a dozen riders, and now it might be Astana who have the numerical advantage, being the only team with two riders.

The one-two punch here could be very effective.
 
Re: Re:

gregrowlerson said:
I think that on the early GC relevant stages that Astana will be on the defensive. As you say, when there are 25-30 riders left in the bunch (and there will be with only 5 kms to go on many early stages) is when Astana will be at a numerical disadvantage.

However, on stages such as 12, 17 and 18 we should see a much clearer "heads of state" picture, and still some way out from the finish we might be down to just a half a dozen riders, and now it might be Astana who have the numerical advantage, being the only team with two riders.

The one-two punch here could be very effective.
Quintana/Valverde
Chavez/Yates
Froome/Thomas

All duos where you can't just let either ride off up the mountain.

I think there are so many contenders this year, that we will not see the usual 5-6 rider favorites groups as much, at the end of mountain stages.

Instead we will see attacks earlier, from larger groups, because too many riders can't shake eachother off, if they leave it till the last few Ks of a climb.
 
Aru was impressive in the Italian national title. Simple as that and he's lean, very lean indeed. He's got excellent form, is a year older and the drama of the Scarponi tragedy has toughened him and ironically given him perspective and serenity. I'm expecting a strong performance and I wouldn't underestimate his chances of reaching the podium.
 
May 25, 2016
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This shows again that the (ex-)Britons and Northern-Europeans on this forum need to calm down and get out that euro-centricbubble, Vino will make sure Astana always has a contender. I had a 500 stake at 3.9 for this guy. I'm buying Astana wear be sure of that.
 

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