Oldman said:
[/color]
Sorry for any confusion. RICO would be applicable but I was speaking to probable charges. The degree of involvment is the key and proving it can be difficult. LA saying "I need drugs to go fast" is not the same as arranging, acquiring or distributing to others. As pointed out earlier; drug abusers are not a real priority for a Grand Jury investigation should that be the venue. They'd have to have airtight evidence to convict for a criminal offense and the Special Prosecutor may have it. These type of investigations tend to be more about the institutionalized "cheating" problem if it follows MLB and the NFL stereotype of prosecution. That and the political difficulty of USPS resources being involved-without those Federal funds there would not be a Special Prosecutor assigned to the case. It would be a simple criminal case and they'd leave it to USADA to pursue and they're not going to bust a small drug ring. Congress didn't care about criminal use of steroids in baseball; they had to care about the special Monopoly rights they granted MLB (and partial monopoly the NFL enjoys) as it was a politically sensitive issue. That set the model for this case IMO.
I agree that this is a very unique situation.
The USPS as "sponsor" is what makes it really problematic for Tailwind/LA. I agree that absent that, it would be far less likely to gain traction, and might even fail.
Since it does feature, the seriousness of this, which is downplayed by the loyalists, ratchets up day after day. It is this seriousness that is "scaring straight" (as I hear it) so many of the accused riders. I don't believe cooperation or corroboration will be an issue. Where this will stall is post-indictment.
To me, LA retires and their whole crew digs in for a legal battle that lasts 2-4 years. The sudden and shocking impact of LA being indicted, along with the others, will be so shocking and so contrary to the general public conception of LA it will be irreparable.
Post-indictment, I think the lawyers for the defense will make crazy fees wrangling on every point, delaying every hearing and contesting every motion. Should it ever get to trial, it will be quick and bloody, as the facts are not on his side and the evidence will be overwhelming.
You mention the other sports leagues as the model for this case and as compared to the interest in doping in the big league sports, this is quite a departure, first on the USPS point but also on the narrowness of the focus. This is not about 100 ballplayers, it is about 1 massive sports entity. For that reason the baseball issue was like grasping water or sand, whereas this can be taken by one skinny neck and twisted.