hektoren said:
I'll keep this short, to make it readable in one go, but I do have to say that some of your tentative conclusions have a lot of built-in assumptions in them. For example, you state that a lot of tests have been passed "when they were doping". That needs qualifying. Says who? And "when they were doping", What does that mean? What kind of dope, when did they shoot up (sometimes converts to the cause can provide very helpful notes to detail exactly when and where), when were they tested in relation to infusions, transfusions, injections, pills etc. etc. Putting this puzzle together is a meticulous job combined with retro-testing, and all intel gathered paints an ever more detailed picture to help with future testing regimens. In short, don't take "tested negative when doping" at face value as an expression of how inefficient the testing regimens are. What one knows isn't necessarily found in published positives/exclusions.
Also, a lot of people, like Landis, stress that the dopers get better at it. Well, not to the tune of the combined budgets of the antidoping community, customs, police authorities, lab-industry and pharma industry working in tandem etc. etc. Even the EU has stepped up to the plate, pledging, what was it, 300 million euro for antidoping? That's a lot of money and brainpower to counteract by the doping community if they want to keep ahead.
I'll keep it "short" too. There is a wealth of data around, and I am not gonna rehash the history of doping, just to convince you. I'm happy with my reading of the field, and nothing I have heard has given me ground to revise my assumptions downwards on how things were, are now, and will be in the immediate future.
Not sure where you pitch me in your head, but I am too careful to assume many things upwards from where I am as "proven". Still, I would be amazed if reality doesn't lie a lot more in that direction.
And I certainly trust my own judgement and reading skills more than yours. You don't need to tell me I have assumptions, trust me I know. There is a lot on this planet I can't "prove". Doesn't mean I am not damn sure it is or isn't likely.
Still, on the whole, I tend/try to underassume, and it has served me well. Time will tell how well it served me in the next doping chapter in cycling, and sports in general. I might well be wrong.
Still, undeniably, most dopers tend to get caught after passing many test under the influence. "Somehow". Detection efforts and capabilities might be getting a bit better, but positives are still a mere splash on a heat rod plate (even if you just look at those individuals alone). You would be foolish to ignore the observations by those that "fess up to their history" and state over and over again that it was dead easy (and with detailed descriptions of how they go about it).
I have yet to hear one argument from you how known and self-confessed dopers were able to pass "all these wonderful tests that are well ahead of the dopers", and how come we just happened to have caught the dopers more often than not, when we finally caught them on an off-day, whilst "the rest" was of course clean. In case you are curious, I am a long way away from considering that the case that they all dope as made convincingly. Just curious how you stack up the doped riders we know losing against so many other clean riders in the field or head to head? The new generation of dope is pretty good.
Sire, dope in sports is a bit more on the governmental authorities radar than it was, but it isn't exactly a medium priority for a thinly stretched police outfit either, in the vast majority of the nations, if not all.
My "it's all a drop in the ocean" maths and assumptions stack up better, logically, than being bowled over by the magnitude of the new anti-dope fight, certainly based on the evidence for substantial new efforts and money.
A single thorough doping test costs how much? (test alone, ignore the legal side that kicks in if a single positive emerges, etc). How many top sporters are engaged in how many sport events across the EU, on a yearly basis. With how much money at stake? And how much if we included gambling? 300 million? Peanuts. Porbably doesn't even cover football by a wide margin, if you want to test adequately, let alone thoroughly.
Ignoring the fact that good money after bad testing regimes and enforcement policies is just more money mostly wasted on rotten systems. Sure, it will make a difference. But it is too little given the terrain to cover.
What do you think the Contador process is costing, roughly? One event by one rider in one sport. It is scary.
As I said, things are getting a bit better in cycling, we don't disagree on that.
But I am not gonna do your homework for solid data when you are standing on the top of a Clinic that has tons of utterly well researched data collated for you already. Some solid substance, and a lot more speculation and outrageous claims too. Trust me, I know.
I am able to read, weigh, and do my own follow up reading and research for what I think is worth it. I take you trust your own reading skills to figure out what data is good and what data needs a second or third look too.
I made my mind up. I also know enough to know I won't convince you given what you keep pushing back in my direction (basic objections, hurdles long crossed by many, with conclusions that we sometimes agree upon - open doors in particular- and sometimes we don't).
So I am out of this exchange. Too many questions from you for me, most with instantly available answers if you cared to look yourself. Not enough counters on points I raise, just picking the next thing and running with it. I've got better things to do.