Frédéric Grappe analysis of Froome data

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Jun 18, 2009
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Alex Simmons/RST said:
That's what was reported by Velonews.

And if so people are trying to infer the 60-min : 20-min mean maximal power ratio from power data covering only 18 climbs of unknown duration over a 2 year period.

Right.
not "people", Grappe. Cyclingnews just reported that he got "2 years of data". If he was actually give 18 files, a more appropriate response would have been "I don't have enough information", and it makes the whole thing that much more of a complete joke. Of course, this data can only be deciphered by "professionals".

Selectively releasing data (to one guy) from the time that Froome suddenly became good until now just makes them look like they have something to hide, IMO.
 
Mar 25, 2012
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131313 said:
not "people", Grappe. Cyclingnews just reported that he got "2 years of data". If he was actually give 18 files, a more appropriate response would have been "I don't have enough information", and it makes the whole thing that much more of a complete joke. Of course, this data can only be deciphered by "professionals".

Selectively releasing data (to one guy) from the time that Froome suddenly became good until now just makes them look like they have something to hide, IMO.
I agree , has Sky said why they choose to "release" data only since Vuelta 2011 ?
 
gthx_gthx_ said:
I agree , has Sky said why they choose to "release" data only since Vuelta 2011 ?
It's clear why they didn't.

A seismograph similar during an earthquake would have been produced.

131313 is right. It's looks more suspicious when only "select" data has been offered.

It's looks like they're trying to hide something.

Maybe they are?
 
Mar 18, 2009
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V3R1T4S said:
I don't have the image but it is a histogram containing the total time throughout the entire (or most of) the Vuelta spent at certain powers, binned in 5w increments. The red line and comment exist, as Le Breton said.

If we assume the ~3% inflation factor from the funny rings, a threshold of 420w on them is ~408w or 6 w/kg at 68kg.
Thanks for the clarification. It does indeed appear that his FTP was ~420 W - or ~6.2 W/kg, assuming he weighed 68 kg - (as measured using Osymetric chainrings) during the 2011 Vuelta. The 405/411 W (AP/NP) during the TT could therefore be due to 1) fatigue, 2) difference between climbing/road position and TT position, or 3) both.
 
acoggan said:
I'm afraid that I'm a bit confused - some of what you wrote makes it sound like a power distribution histogram, but others make it sound like a power-duration graph ("mean maximal power chart" in WKO+-speak). Any chance you could scan the print-out and post the image?
Scanning it is no pb, but I never learned to post a pix on this website.

I probably could easily find your email and send it to you, but now I'm on my coffee break after watching the stage.
PS : As I said, it got rained on a bit.

PS2 : I sent it to your earthlink address.
Looks better after scanning than on the paper here :)
Since you are more expert than I am, go ahead and post it if you wish.
 
We can go on indefinitely discussing these values, but the critical data are obviously pre-2011. Suppose they were actually provided. What would we see?

Based on his much poorer performances during these years, the most likely scenario is that he had substantially lower power values. In this case, there would be arguments about whether the increase from pre- to post-2011 was impossible or unprecedented. Since the data, such as they are, indicate consistent power from 2011 on, there would be a sharp increase in just one year. It would be interesting to try to find some precedent for such an increase, to the extent that data are available. To the extent they aren’t, some of the physiologists here could weigh in on what they regard as the likely limits of a single year’s improvement.

Assuming that the increase in power appeared hard to account for, except by doping, Froome supporters would no doubt argue that he was affected by his disease, his first treatment for which he has reported as being December 2010. We would need passport data to back this up, i.e., one would expect to see substantially lower Hb levels up to the time of treatment. If these data actually exist and were made available, it should be possible to correlate Hb levels with oxygen uptake and power, to assess whether most of the power increase beginning in 2011 could actually be attributed to an increase in Hb. As I noted in an earlier post, one study found an average Hb decrease in people with this disease of roughly 15%, which could certainly support a decrease in V02 of 10% if not more. We could certainly get a very rough idea of how much Froome could have been handicapped by schistosomiasis if we know his Hb levels before and after treatment. Passport data could also confirm or dismiss the notion that a single treatment did not cure him of the disease (as it would affect his riding), which appears to be unlikely based on most information about this disease.

Earlier years are also relevant. Froome seems to think he got the disease in late 2009. If this is the case, he should have had normal (i.e., same as after treatment) Hb levels during this period. His power values should have been higher than in 2010, because even allowing for some improvement as he matured as a rider, the decrease in Hb following the disease would be a much more determining factor. Again, passport data would be critical, or lacking that at this time, any blood data that might indicate Hb levels.

As a rough guide, we should see something like this:

pre-schistosomiasis (up to Dec. 2009?) - normal power (arbitrarily set at 1.00)

post-schisto (2010) - decreased power (say, roughly 0.90 of normal)

post-treatment (2011 on) - normal power plus training improvements (roughly 1.05 of normal?)
 
V3R1T4S said:
............
it is a histogram containing the total time throughout the entire (or most of) the Vuelta spent at certain powers, binned in 5w increments.
.
From the area of the graph, without putting much effort into it, I would say it's about 30 000 minutes worth of data, 50 hours.
 
Le breton said:
Scanning it is no pb, but I never learned to post a pix on this website.
:confused:

CNews forum 101:
Upload an image to another website: photobucket comes to mind

then when you're posting click on the yellowish postcard mountain icon
and a pop up URL/link request should come up.
You need to paste the link photobucket (or similar) gives as the "direct link" to your uploaded image.

hope that helps :)
 
131313 said:
No, it's not. NP for the ride is 411. So, that's the upper bound, and often NP can overstate things a little bit. It's definitely not "like 420W".
You are missing the point. The numbers are skewed due to the fact there are large drop offs in the power, particularly the last half which seems there was downhill. I don't know the course and how many turns, but that also affects the numbers clearly.

The first half of the ride was 414w, not NP, which using the same would put it at around 420w NP...which for many segments, nearly 10 minutes in length the first half, he is doing 420w consistently by judging the graph. Straight Wattage, no NP. Actual.

The last half, it is lower due to larger drop offs/non pedaling due to the course, terrain etc. 398w. The NP numbers are not shown below in the screenshot, just the overall NP number for the entire ITT stage.

I'm making an assumption, put this guy on the track, he will sustain an easy 440w+ for an hour. Maybe higher. This is just a ride/power file from an actual stage with variations that taint the numbers.
 
Anyway, that is the type of file that presumably was provided to Grappe.

I had printed it when it appeared on cyclingnews.

I rained a bit on my printed copy but I think it's still useable.

Thanks Netserk
and Thanks
TourOfSardinia. (I did enter the Mare & Monte Tour of Sardinia in 2001)
 
131313 said:
Well, according to Hunter Allen, his FTP is now 10% higher than that. A grand tour podium finisher increasing his FTP by 10%? Interesting.

If you want confirmation on Froome's current power output, you could always look at Cyclingpeaks website and compare the power output to some other guys on Ventoux: http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/2013-tour-de-france.aspx

Oh, wait. That day seems to missing? Weird, that...

The release of data is so contrived it's beyond comical. If Froome is clean, he should be pretty mad at his team director for being such an obvious liar, because he's making Froome look guilty by association. Whether it's the "chemotherapy-like side affects" of an antibiotic, hiring a doping doctor because of a swannie dying from an infection disease, the faux outrage that Michael Barry was doping (or that Yates had tested positive), or releasing Froome's data since AFTER he suddenly became good... at this point Brailsford has less credibility than Johan. Obviously they'll do whatever it takes to win and they have the money to do it.

Since it appears Froome has gained 10% power from the 2011 Vuelta, it would be interesting to see just how much power he's gain from when they first began getting data on him. My guess is that he's increased about 20% or so. I think anyone who's ridden a bike competitively knows just how ridiculous the whole thing is.
It should also be noted that of the released data to Grappe he didn't get all of it. I think they gave him 10 files in total and let him sift through it.

His conclusions were - "i don't know".

Which was turned into "look we released the data, we have nothing to hide".
 
zigmeister said:
20% ROFL...

Good one. If anybody can gain 20% in 18 months, that would be superhuman.

Doubtful..that is a huge increase in numbers for cycling and un-possible.
I think there's been two spikes in Froome's performance. The first the Vuelta breakout and then the Tour 13. 20% may seem high but certainty 20% from pre-Vuetla.

I agree beyond human.

Grappe's tweets on the matter were interesting.
 
thehog said:
I think there's been two spikes in Froome's performance. The first the Vuelta breakout and then the Tour 13. 20% may seem high but certainty 20% from pre-Vuetla.

I agree beyond human.

Grappe's tweets on the matter were interesting.
He wasn't riding as leader, you failed to mention all of 2012's ammmaaaaazing performances including the Olympics.
 
DirtyWorks said:
He wasn't riding as leader, you failed to mention all of 2012's ammmaaaaazing performances including the Olympics.
2012 he was an odd year. He was 10 minutes off the back at Romandie and then back to his best at the Tour a short time later. Similar to Poland then the Vuelta.

Yes then the Olympics.
 

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