We can go on indefinitely discussing these values, but the critical data are obviously pre-2011. Suppose they were actually provided. What would we see?
Based on his much poorer performances during these years, the most likely scenario is that he had substantially lower power values. In this case, there would be arguments about whether the increase from pre- to post-2011 was impossible or unprecedented. Since the data, such as they are, indicate consistent power from 2011 on, there would be a sharp increase in just one year. It would be interesting to try to find some precedent for such an increase, to the extent that data are available. To the extent they aren’t, some of the physiologists here could weigh in on what they regard as the likely limits of a single year’s improvement.
Assuming that the increase in power appeared hard to account for, except by doping, Froome supporters would no doubt argue that he was affected by his disease, his first treatment for which he has reported as being December 2010. We would need passport data to back this up, i.e., one would expect to see substantially lower Hb levels up to the time of treatment. If these data actually exist and were made available, it should be possible to correlate Hb levels with oxygen uptake and power, to assess whether most of the power increase beginning in 2011 could actually be attributed to an increase in Hb. As I noted in an earlier post, one study found an average Hb decrease in people with this disease of roughly 15%, which could certainly support a decrease in V02 of 10% if not more. We could certainly get a very rough idea of how much Froome could have been handicapped by schistosomiasis if we know his Hb levels before and after treatment. Passport data could also confirm or dismiss the notion that a single treatment did not cure him of the disease (as it would affect his riding), which appears to be unlikely based on most information about this disease.
Earlier years are also relevant. Froome seems to think he got the disease in late 2009. If this is the case, he should have had normal (i.e., same as after treatment) Hb levels during this period. His power values should have been higher than in 2010, because even allowing for some improvement as he matured as a rider, the decrease in Hb following the disease would be a much more determining factor. Again, passport data would be critical, or lacking that at this time, any blood data that might indicate Hb levels.
As a rough guide, we should see something like this:
pre-schistosomiasis (up to Dec. 2009?) - normal power (arbitrarily set at 1.00)
post-schisto (2010) - decreased power (say, roughly 0.90 of normal)
post-treatment (2011 on) - normal power plus training improvements (roughly 1.05 of normal?)