Future GT Winner (Edition 2016)

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

Yeah, Pinot winning the Giro, that wouldn't really surprise me, maybe some of the Italian descents could be a bit of a problem for him, but other than that the Giro would be perfect for him.
I somehow have the feeling that Kruijswijk will never again come this close.

Kruijswijk's the Dutch Basso as we saw this year and Pinot's descending is even worse. Zero chance at the Giro. Should go for the Vuelta instead as he showed some quality on punchy climbs at last year's il Lombardia.

Pinot's descending has gotten better since his issues a few seasons ago and with his confidence growing then so will his descending, it was always mental issue and not a technique problem with his descending.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Why only one Yates?

Simon isn't quite good enough on the longer climbs and the TT to win. He'll get plenty of stages and top 10s, but I can't see him ever standing on the top step.

He'll very likely bag a Liege, San Sebastian and/or Lombardia win though, that's the type of rider he is. Hopefully Orica back him as early as Lombardia this year.

Apparently all the climbers at OBE are doing two lead up races in Italy and then Lombardia - Have no idea who will be the leader.

 

[burning]

This poll is missing the legend Zakarin

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Adam Yates: If he decides to target the Giro/Vuelta one day. I think his engine is a little bit too limited for the high mountains. Shorter, steeper climbs suits him a bit more, therefore i think his chances in la Vuelta is bigger then in the Tour.

Esteban Chaves: Will be difficult. I compare him to Purito. His TT is slighty better, but he still loses 3 minutes in a long flat TT on the best GT-rider (Froome). That's too much. Therefore he's got no chance at all in a Tour, and also in a GT with more then 1 TT. A hard Giro is maybe his best option. But he still has to show he can dominate in the mountains, not following just really well. I think he's got a 30% chance to win one.

Miguel Ángel López: If he progresses the way we all think he will do, he can win a Giro for sure. Don't know yet about his chances in a Murito-Vuelta. Also his TT is uncertain too atm. So winning the Tour will be more complicated. But winning a Giro in the future? For sure.

Mikel Landa: I really hope so, but i don't think he will do. His TT is a bit vulnerable, and he has too many off-days. He seems to lack the mentality to stay focused for three weeks. So no, onfortunately not

Rafal Majka: No. He can podium in a Vuelta or Giro, but nothing more. He climbs well, but not among the very very best. His TT is reasonably well, but not top-material.

Richie Porte: No. Because he will target the Tour in the next 5 years. And he is a lesser version of Froome. His TT is good, but not Indurain or Froome material. He can dominate a mountain stage, but he's too inconsistent too be on the top for three weeks. I think he can win a Giro, but he will not target it. So no.

Romain Bardet: No. Good rider, but i don't see all the fuzz. Like Pinot, he lacks a really good TT and his climbing is not that spectaculair. He can reach the podium by attacking/picking the right moment. But in a mano-o-mano against guys like Quintana and Froome, he's really no threath.

Steven Kruijswijk: I fear he's a typical one-day fly, in terms of winning a GT. His biggest chance is the Giro, but in La Vuelta (too many short steep climbs) and Tour (level a bit too high) he has no chance.

Thibaut Pinot: No. Overrated rider. He doesn't belong to the 5 best climbers in the world. And he's mentally weak.

Tom Dumoulin: No. Got his chance in La Vuelta. Only in a Vuelta/Giro with no multiple big mountain stages and a long ITT + prologue. But hey, Wiggo has already retired

Very good post. Disagree with you on Yates and Kruijswijk but apart from that sums up my opinions nicely too

Fwiw, if Kruijswijk turned up to the this year's Tour in the same shape as his Giro shape, I strongly believe he would have finished minimum 2nd (barring any crashes ofc, which can't be guaranteed when Froome attacked over the Peyresourde and certainly not up to Finault)

As for Adam Yates, he would probably have finished 3rd this year ahead of Quintana if Ventoux had been full length and hadn't been neutralised. Not bad for a 24yo and certainly has potential to win any of the Grand Tours (he's proved this year that he can handle the long climbs as well as the muritos)

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Why only one Yates?

Simon isn't quite good enough on the longer climbs and the TT to win. He'll get plenty of stages and top 10s, but I can't see him ever standing on the top step.

He'll very likely bag a Liege, San Sebastian and/or Lombardia win though, that's the type of rider he is. Hopefully Orica back him as early as Lombardia this year.

If Porte Majka and Pinot are on this list, Simon should be too. He's certainly got the potential to win a Vuelta

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Why only one Yates?
it will be very difficult for anybody to win a GT over the next 2-3 years, the big 4 have won 11 of the last 12, and it would have probably been all 12 if Froome and Quintana hadn't dropped out of the Vuelta last year. Therefore although i think if all the stars align Richie Porte is talent wise the best of the rest, i really can't see him winning a GT.
If Landa can get his Giro legs back he will win a GT.

I think this is a smart post. It's really hard to see who has potential when Froome/Nibali/Contador/Quintana have been dominating. Take them away, and I also agree that Porte has the best overall game. Dumoulin could win a TT-heavy race but that's not the trend. I really liked the way Kruijswijk raced last year, so if there aren't any snowbanks he might have a chance. Plus he seemed really angry that he screwed up in the Giro.

Of the others, I could see one of the Yateses upping their game a level, Chaves I agree need to improve time trial but with full team support I wouldn't be surprised if he nabbed a Giro or Vuelta. Landa remains an unknown but with full Sky support he definitely has a chance. Bardet is certainly talented enough but don't think he's strong enough to avoid a bad mountain day. Plus he's French and French riders never win the TdF...

Honestly I see Froome/Quintana winning the next 3-4 TdFs barring accident/injury. Contador may have one more GT win in him; Nibali too.

I voted Landa, Porte, Kruijswijk and Chaves. I'd be surprised if one of them doesn't win a GT in the next 3 years.

 

[JRanton]

I'll go with Chaves. Orica should send him and their A team to the Giro and prevent Nibali from stealing another grand tour.

 

[JRanton]

Re:

I'd vote for Richie but he's genuinely and frightfully unlucky.

Therefore Chaves.

Richie's top level is what makes him so interesting. He can genuinely match Froome and Quintana on his best days. The only rider in the peloton who can, but his focus on the Tour will probably prevent any GT win.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

I'd vote for Richie but he's genuinely and frightfully unlucky.

Therefore Chaves.

Richie's top level is what makes him so interesting. He can genuinely match Froome and Quintana on his best days. The only rider in the peloton who can, but his focus on the Tour will probably prevent any GT win.

On his day, he can outclimb Quintana, and he's also a better TTist than Quintana. But while he didn't have any terrible days on the key days this year and had seriously rotten luck, it should also be noted that he faded quite a bit in the last week. Even without bad luck, he faces an uphill battle to win a GT if he continues targetting the Tour, as you said

Age isn't on his side either, being 4 months older than Froome

 

[JRanton]

Re:

Chaves can win a GT or two, but not if he focuses on the Tour. I voted Lopez, but now that I think about it a bit more, he is still too much of an unknown. It's great that he won a one week race already, but he had too many mediocre placings last year.

Of the ones remaining, I think Yates has the most potential. The others are all very good, but have too many weaknesses.

I also like Adam Yates. I think he has the character and mentality to win grand tours. He needs to make another step in his climbing and time trialing to win a GT but that's very doable at his age.

 

[burning]

Re: Re:

Chaves can win a GT or two, but not if he focuses on the Tour. I voted Lopez, but now that I think about it a bit more, he is still too much of an unknown. It's great that he won a one week race already, but he had too many mediocre placings last year.

Of the ones remaining, I think Yates has the most potential. The others are all very good, but have too many weaknesses.

I also like Adam Yates. I think he has the character and mentality to win grand tours. He needs to make another step in his climbing and time trialing to win a GT but that's very doable at his age.

What

He was scared to attack to get 20 odd seconds in the last stage in Tour, how on earth that he has the character and mentality to win grand tours?

 

[Bogotano]

Angel Lopez HASNT EVEN FINISHED A GT YET! Most overrated rider in history
No way is he the next winner. It's basically depends on who we think we will the Giro.
Ie Chaves or Yates imo

Yea but it's who will win in the future, not necessarily the next new GT winner.

Fair enough my bad! Yeah he might win one some day. Still think we should wait till he finished a GT.

While we are at it, Egan Bernal to win a gt in 2019

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Chaves can win a GT or two, but not if he focuses on the Tour. I voted Lopez, but now that I think about it a bit more, he is still too much of an unknown. It's great that he won a one week race already, but he had too many mediocre placings last year.

Of the ones remaining, I think Yates has the most potential. The others are all very good, but have too many weaknesses.

I also like Adam Yates. I think he has the character and mentality to win grand tours. He needs to make another step in his climbing and time trialing to win a GT but that's very doable at his age.

What

He was scared to attack to get 20 odd seconds in the last stage in Tour, how on earth that he has the character and mentality to win grand tours?

Good point. Humans never mentally mature after 24.

 

[42x16ss]

Rob Power. Colossal potential, if he stays healthy.

 

[StryderHells]

I'll go with Chaves. Orica should send him and their A team to the Giro and prevent Nibali from stealing another grand tour.

Nibali has never stolen a GT, he's wins his races

 

[RedheadDane]

Kellan Froome!
You didn't say anything about how far into the future we were going.

Of course it's entirely possible Kellan won't even want to become a pro.

 

[Bolder]

If we are talking way way n the future, Adrien Costa. I could see an American team being built around him if he continues to develop. Of course the pressure of being "the next Lemond/Armstrong" will be unbearable.

 

[PremierAndrew]

In all honesty, I can see Costa dominating GTs for a while. His climbing and TTing ability are both absolutely insane for his age

 

[gospina]

Re:

In all honesty, I can see Costa dominating GTs for a while. His climbing and TTing ability are both absolutely insane for his age

Costa Bernal and Hugh Karthy will be taking all the GTs that Lopez doesn't target. 2020 though

 

[Pantani_lives]

So it looks like Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio is the winner of this poll. Not surprising, given the fact that he was the revelation of the year with his two podium places. He has the biggest smile, loves the sport and is not afraid to take initiative. His weak point is his time trial, but he makes a lot of that up with his climbing ability and his motivation. Another Colombian lightweight seems to mean business. Let's see if he can fulfill the expectations and fly like a hawk. (I hope I have the bird right.)

Thanks to anyone who voted and for the many interesting reactions.

 

[Mr.White]

I'll go with Chaves. Orica should send him and their A team to the Giro and prevent Nibali from stealing another grand tour.

Well he was there this year, and Nibali didn't stole anything from him, he lost fair and square, And his team was quite good there actually...

 

[Brullnux]

I'll go with Chaves. Orica should send him and their A team to the Giro and prevent Nibali from stealing another grand tour.

Well he was there this year, and Nibali didn't stole anything from him, he lost fair and square, And his team was quite good there actually...

Yeah Chaves just faded really badly in the last two days, it seemed as if the really high altitude didn't suit him

He was dropped on Agnello, Risoul and Colle della Lombarda by Nibali and Uran and Bala also dropped him on the latter. I think Nibali is still just better than Chaves.

 

[Red Rick]

Chaves was just blowing himself up in the last 2 days of the Giro. Trying too hard to hang on.

 

[dastott]

To win a GT a big engine is required. Therefore:

Dumoulin - very possible. I sense a Wiggins-like development but he has already shown he can handle steep climbs and attack in the mountains. A future winner of any of the three, providing a balanced course is on offer.

Landa - has shown potential to be best climber in the world. A Tour like 2015 would be very good for him. Giro or Vuelta also possible.

Porte - could win the Vuelta for sure. Very good on short steep climbs, decent TTer. Wish he would have a crack at it.

The others on the list all seem a step below in terms of physical attributes and/or bike handling.

 

[tristecsinamigos]

I'll go with Chaves. Orica should send him and their A team to the Giro and prevent Nibali from stealing another grand tour.

Well he was there this year, and Nibali didn't stole anything from him, he lost fair and square, And his team was quite good there actually...

Yeah Chaves just faded really badly in the last two days, it seemed as if the really high altitude didn't suit him

He was dropped on Agnello, Risoul and Colle della Lombarda by Nibali and Uran and Bala also dropped him on the latter. I think Nibali is still just better than Chaves.

I think he caught a cold:

...Sabía que no estaba en su mejor momento por la gripa que traía desde hace algunos días y cometió un error ya que quiso guapear cuando fue atacado por Nibali pegándose a su rueda en sus dos primeros arrancones y ese esfuerzo le “cortó” las piernas mientras que se alejaba su gran rival...

http://www.elespectador.com/deportes/ciclismo/todo-se-alio-contra-chaves-articulo-634937