Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

[Breh]

-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...

Grouchy? Realist... Next year he will do le tour and he won't be top5. I agree with you about zakarin, I think he is a little bit overrated, even his aggressiveness is overrated.
I won't bet with you because the starlist in lombardia is usual weak compared with other monuments.
I didn't lose the giro bet. I said that pinot wouldn't do top5 in giro (and he did) but you said that he would top3 (and he didn't), so no one won

Well, well, well ...
viewtopic.php?p=2120507#p2120507

 

[Tonton]

Re:

-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.

 

[Breh]

Re: Re:

-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.

1. They climbed about equally fast appearently, sorry.
2. He wouldn't lose 18seconds in a flat stage if he had a decent "bodyguard" like Bennati or something to guide him in these sprint finales. Having a teammate infront of you who knows how to decent helps. Or they can you drag back to the main group if you do happen to lose time.
3. We're unlikely to fix them. Zakarin isnt considering he has done more than decent before on these first MTFs.

Well, he did lose more than a minute despite his good third week.

Anyway, I suppose they're both riding LeTour next year so let's see how it turns out

Good luck in Lombardia.

 

[perico]

Enric Mas

 

[Pantani_lives]

With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.

1. They climbed about equally fast appearently, sorry.
2. He wouldn't lose 18seconds in a flat stage if he had a decent "bodyguard" like Bennati or something to guide him in these sprint finales. Having a teammate infront of you who knows how to decent helps. Or they can you drag back to the main group if you do happen to lose time.
3. We're unlikely to fix them. Zakarin isnt considering he has done more than decent before on these first MTFs.

Well, he did lose more than a minute despite his good third week.

Anyway, I suppose they're both riding LeTour next year so let's see how it turns out

Good luck in Lombardia.

Zakarin has a problem with the first week, Pinot has a problem with rest days.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.

You might be right about Pinot. I think the Giro may be the best race for him. The French also ride under a lot more stress at the Tour and I think it affected Bardet going into the TT where he had a really off day even for him. Not that the result would have been any different for the podium. I am in two minds about Zakarin. If he does win a GT I don't think it will be soon.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.

You might be right about Pinot. I think the Giro may be the best race for him. The French also ride under a lot more stress at the Tour and I think it affected Bardet going into the TT where he had a really off day even for him. Not that the result would have been any different for the podium. I am in two minds about Zakarin. If he does win a GT I don't think it will be soon.

I didn't vote Zakarin myself, but I just wanted to explain why I think Zakarin has greater chances than Pinot. I only voted Lopez and Landa, but wouldn't be surprised at all if Zakarin or Chaves won a GT at one point. Menchov, a rider very similar to Zakarin IMO, won 2 GTs after all.

 

[barmaher]

Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.

The big difference between Zakarin and Porte, and probably the reason why Zakarin has so many and Porte so few votes, is which gt's they target. I agree that right now Porte is the better gc rider but he seems like he only cares about the tour and I despite being strong, I'm not sure if he can win against the absolute best. Zakarin however will probably keep riding the giro and the vuelta, since Kittel has now joined the team, and there you can sometimes get a lucky win due to a weak field. For example I don't think that Aru in 2015 or Nibali in 2010 were stronger than Zakarin this year.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.

I wonder if a previous winner of the poll should be allowed as an option.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.

I wonder if a previous winner of the poll should be allowed as an option.

Well, if the winner of the poll hasn't won a Grand Tour, technically he is eligible for the other polls.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.

Landa in top form would beat a top form Nibali. I think he could have even beaten a 2017 Tour Froome.

 

[barmaher]

Maybe a modern top form Nibali, but not the Tour 2014 version. I don't think he could reach such heights.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Maybe a modern top form Nibali, but not the Tour 2014 version. I don't think he could reach such heights.

Sure. And If he's gonna win a gt now he doesn't need to beat a 2014 Nibbes.

 

[telencefalus]

i'm pretty sure MAL will win a gt in 2018 or 2019