I can see why this is confusing lol
Let me try to explain.
In the first group of riders I mentioned those, who in the past season have showed me enough, for me to not be hugely surprised, if they top3 a GT next year. For example, Hindley, he was 2nd in the Giro. So if he podiums again next year I won't be surprised anymore. Next, Kuss. He has shown amazing climbing ability in the past two seasons. So if he podiums the Vuelta next year, if he gets the chance to ride for himself (or if the supposed GC team leader gets in difficulty), I wouldn't be that surprised. Much the same for Vlasov. Almeida had a tremendous Giro. As I expect him to improve even more next season, I don't find a top 3 result in a GT that far fetched if the stars align. Martinez is a different case. He hasn't shown the same GT performances like the other riders in this group. But he has won a Dauphine with a very strong field. Because he hasn't had his chances/luck in a GT yet and because he is still young, I give him the benefit of the doubt. If he gets the chance next year, he might have a strong GC showing. Let's say the jury is still out on him.
Those are 5 examples I gave you, but there are more riders I could add to this group. Another of those would be Remco. He has definitely shown me enough, for me to think he can podium or even win the Giro next year and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. But he was such an obvious choice, I wanted to skip him. Another great example would be Carthy.
The second group of riders in my OP consists of riders, who are yes talented (some of them extremely talented as you mentioned), but there are a lot more questions surrounding them. They'd have to make a huge leap in performance for next season, for them to be considered podium contenders in a GT. Bagioli and Simmons are obviously too young and haven't shown anything in a GT for us to think they can contend. We don't even know if they'll become GC riders. Next, Kämna. A very strong rider who had a very strong Tour, but as a stage hunter. To be in contention for GC for three weeks in a GT is another story. He also hasn't been among the best in short stage races. His 8th place in CdD 2020 is probably his best GC result so far. Maybe he should be somewhere in between the two groups, because I think he can become a good GT rider in the future, maybe in 3, 4 years, but not yet next year.
Burguil is probably an odd name on my list. I wanted to name a rider who represents those, who showed a lot of promise in their early years but lately haven't improved as much, and seem to be at, or close to their peak, but their peak is just not good enough to win or even podium a GT. While Barguil didn't have a bad season at all, especially in the one day races after the Tour, I would be very surprised if he suddenly has a jump in performance and podiums a GT. Although, after thinking about it some more, if he gets the chance to focus on the Giro or the Vuelta, a top 3 wouldn't be impossible. But then again it becomes almost impossible when you are on a PRT French team.
De Plus is a complicated case right now. His year was completely lost. It was supposed to be his breakthrough season yet he hardly even raced for different reasons, mainly because of illness (officially). Because he is still relatively young, I expect (and hope) him to bounce back. But because he was almost a year away of competitive racing and because of GC hierarchy in team INEOS (he is like the 8th GC rider in line), I don't expect it to be next year.
I hope it's understandable and a little less confusing now