Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[nightowl]

Most overrated climber ever. And poll should have a "no one" option

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta at 21, then went as secondary leader to Pogacar this year. So not exactly surprising he hasn’t won a GT yet.

He’s shown the ability to perform for 3 weeks, the ability to do high-level TTs, and flashes of truly elite climbing level - and he’s only just turned 22. He’s kind of the obvious choice in this poll, it just looks worse because he was the obvious choice the last 2 years as well.

 

[Potomac]

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta

Kuss beat Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta.
He should get some pointers from him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

In fairness to Ayuso, he hasn’t exactly been in a winnable GT position yet in his career. Vuelta 3rd at 20, then went up against Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta at 21, then went as secondary leader to Pogacar this year. So not exactly surprising he hasn’t won a GT yet.

He’s shown the ability to perform for 3 weeks, the ability to do high-level TTs, and flashes of truly elite climbing level - and he’s only just turned 22. He’s kind of the obvious choice in this poll, it just looks worse because he was the obvious choice the last 2 years as well.

I'm yet to see where he is challenging 2nd tier climbers in the mountains (Remco, Kuss, Yates, etc)

 

[Pantani_lives]

Do you have any specific criteria for who to put in the poll? I'm guessing the bookies would give lower odds for winning a GT at some point in their career for some big talents who are earlier in their development, like Nordhagen, Del Toro or Widar, than for Skjelmose or Gaudu, for example. But I can also see how there's not enough space to have all the promising U23 climbers in the poll.

There are no strict criteria, but I mostly look at those who were in the top 7 of a GT this year. I can also include someone who has won an important one-week race, like Ayuso this year or Skjelmose last year. Sometimes I leave out riders who are already in their thirties, because they're unlikely to improve. Very young riders like Del Toro etc. can be included next year if they show further development. It's always hard to choose.

 

[Netserk]

I think the best criterion for including someone in the poll is how likely they are to be the next first time winner. So while young riders have many more years to land a victory, they are not necessarily the most likely to do so within a year or two. And so, if their most likely years for success is a couple of years down the road, they can be included in a later poll.

I don't think Adam Yates need to improve, he just needs to ride the Giro next year in a similar form to what he achieved for the Tour the past two years to have a better opportunity than some of the poll options will ever have (again).

So if it was just up to me (also somewhat weighting which options others would likely find plausible):

1. Adam Yates
2. João Almeida
3. Carlos Rodríguez
4. Enric Mas
5. Juan Ayuso
6. Antonio Tiberi
7. Matteo Jorgenson
8. Derek Gee
9. Cian Uijtdebroeks
10. Felix Gall

 

[Tonton]

2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 Juan Ayuso
2023 Juan Ayuso
2024 ???

Landa or Ayuso then? I'm surprised that Mas never got the top vote.

Castrillo, I hope. He was riding like he didn't give a crap, Having fun on a bike. The kind of rider that I like. Tiberi for Italy...

Joao can be a superdom for Pog on one GT and have one shot per year. Can he make the best of it?

I was a couple of hours late for the poll, but that's my view,. No French revival at this time, Sorry....

 

[nightowl]

Kuss beat Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta.
He should get some pointers from him.

Should’ve gotten in the break at the Tour and got twitter to force Pogacar to gift it to him

 

[Netserk]

Derek Gee is the most underrated bet to win the Giro next year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1869058658136686902

View: https://x.com/IsraelPremTech/status/1869058658136686902

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

Apparently I voted Almeida and Ayuso in a rare moment of benevolence.

I really enjoy Almeida, so that was more a vote from the heart, would like nothing better than a GT win for him. Hopefully he can stay healthy throughout the season.

Ayuso has had a couple of seasons hampered by injury and illness, where he nonetheless managed some really good results. I'm sure the 2023 and 2024 seasons were nothing like he and the team imagined them to be, but he's still really young. I have no idea if he has hit his ceiling as a climber and/ or GT rider, but hopefully he too can stay healthy from now on and maybe he'll show us all in 2025!

 

[Potomac]

So Ayuso has won this poll three years in a row.
At the start of his next GT I can see all the microphones thrust in his face and he is asked if he feeling the pressure from the PCS Cycling News forum poll.
Anyone would wither under this forum's pressure.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

So Ayuso has won this poll three years in a row.
At the start of his next GT I can see all the microphones thrust in his face and he is asked if he feeling the pressure from the PCS forum poll.
Anyone would wither under this forum's pressure.

PCS?

 

[Cookster15]

I didn't get my vote in before it closed - couldn't make up my mind.

But hopefully João Almeida can deliver. I like him, a dogged diesel in the mountains, a strong time trialist and a selfless team player for his team leader who is the greatest rider we've seen since Merckx.

Juan Ayuso is amazing for such a young rider but too selfish. He might be more talented climber than Almeida but he doesn't deserve my respect or even team support at UAE. Hopefully this attitude is simply immaturity and he can grow up and swing opinions on him and that of his teammates who he will need support from to win a GT.

 

[Potomac]

PCS?

doh! where are my meds?

 

[42x16ss]

None of the above. I do expect most to get podiums/top 5 though, and those to have done it before to do it again at least once

 

[Netserk]

The Giro startlist is taking shape. With Vingegaard (and likely also Pogi) doing Tour-Vuelta, it will be the best chance for a first time winner.

GT winners:

• Rogla
• Hindley
• Carapaz
• Yates, S.
• Quintana
• (Bernal?)
• (Geoghegan Hart?)

Potential first time GT winners:

• Yates, A.
• Ayuso
• Gee
• Tiberi
• Gaudu
• Landa
• Martínez, D.
• Bardet
• Del Toro
• (Rodríguez?)

Potential first time GT winners who likely won't go (and are therefore unlikely to win a GT this year):

• O'Connor
• Mas
• Lipowitz
• Almeida
• Skjelmose
• Blobloblo
• Gall
• Jorgenson
• Martinez, L.

 

[Potomac]

So for the 2025 Vuelta candidates to win their first GT
PCS ranking of top GC riders in the Vuelta 2025

Pos.	Rider	Team	GC Ranking position
1	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	1
2	ALMEIDA João	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	3
3	O'CONNOR Ben	Team Jayco AlUla	6
4	LANDA Mikel	Soudal Quick-Step	10
5	AYUSO Juan	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	13
6	JORGENSON Matteo	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	15
7	TIBERI Antonio	Bahrain - Victorious	23
8	GALL Felix	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	24
9	KUSS Sepp	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	25
10	BERNAL Egan	INEOS Grenadiers	28
11	HINDLEY Jai	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	29
12	FORTUNATO Lorenzo	XDS Astana Team	30
13	BUITRAGO Santiago	Bahrain - Victorious	32
14	PIDCOCK Thomas	Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	35
15	LÓPEZ Harold Martín	XDS Astana Team	36
16	MARTIN Guillaume	Groupama - FDJ	37
17	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek	38
18	GAUDU David	Groupama - FDJ	44
19	POELS Wout	XDS Astana Team	48
20	RODRÍGUEZ Cristián	Arkéa - B&B Hotels	50
21	PEDERSEN Mads	Lidl - Trek	51
22	SHEFFIELD Magnus	INEOS Grenadiers	52
23	CARUSO Damiano	Bahrain - Victorious	53
24	GROßSCHARTNER Felix	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	54
25	KELDERMAN Wilco	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	59
26	SOLER Marc	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	61
27	LECERF Junior	Soudal Quick-Step	62
28	HIGUITA Sergio	XDS Astana Team	64
29	RICCITELLO Matthew	Israel - Premier Tech	69
30	CASTRILLO Pablo	Movistar Team	70
31	PELLIZZARI Giulio	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	73
32	FISHER-BLACK Finn	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	74
33	GANNA Filippo	INEOS Grenadiers	75
34	ALEOTTI Giovanni	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	76
35	TEJADA Harold	XDS Astana Team	81
36	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious	83
37	MEINTJES Louis	Intermarché - Wanty	85
38	SCHACHMANN Maximilian	Soudal Quick-Step	86
39	VINE Jay	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	87
40	ROMO Javier	Movistar Team	89
41	BUCHMANN Emanuel	Cofidis	94
42	DE LA CRUZ David	Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	98
43	VERMAERKE Kevin	Team Picnic PostNL	100
44	PARET-PEINTRE Valentin	Soudal Quick-Step	102
45	HOWSON Damien	Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	103
46	HARPER Chris	Team Jayco AlUla	106
47	DUNBAR Eddie	Team Jayco AlUla	111
48	LANGELLOTTI Victor	INEOS Grenadiers	114
49	SEGAERT Alec	Lotto	119
50	ZWIEHOFF Ben	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	124
51	TULETT Ben	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	126
52	CEPEDA Jefferson Alveiro	Movistar Team	130
53	BENNETT George	Israel - Premier Tech	132
54	ZINGLE Axel	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	137
55	STAUNE-MITTET Johannes	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	142
56	VANSEVENANT Mauri	Soudal Quick-Step	146
57	CANAL Carlos	Movistar Team	158
58	TRÆEN Torstein	Bahrain - Victorious	161
59	GARCÍA PIERNA Raúl	Arkéa - B&B Hotels	163
60	RYAN Archie	EF Education - EasyPost	164
61	RIVERA Brandon Smith	INEOS Grenadiers	169
62	SOBRERO Matteo	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	172
63	HIRT Jan	Israel - Premier Tech	175
64	KRAGH ANDERSEN Søren	Lidl - Trek	179
65	AULAR Orluis	Movistar Team	180
66	SEPÚLVEDA Eduardo	Lotto	182
67	ARMIRAIL Bruno	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	186
68	FRIGO Marco	Israel - Premier Tech	187
69	PHILIPSEN Jasper	Alpecin - Deceuninck	193
70	VERONA Carlos	Lidl - Trek	194
71	CHAVES Esteban	EF Education - EasyPost	195
72	FOLDAGER Anders	Team Jayco AlUla	201
73	GRUEL Thibaud	Groupama - FDJ	204
74	BOUWMAN Koen	Team Jayco AlUla	209
75	SCOTSON Callum	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	213
76	VERGALLITO Luca	Alpecin - Deceuninck	214
77	HERRADA Jesús	Cofidis	217
78	SILVA Guillermo Thomas	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	218
79	OTRUBA Jakub	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	223
80	KÜNG Stefan	Groupama - FDJ	225
81	MOLARD Rudy	Groupama - FDJ	241
82	FAGÚNDEZ Eric Antonio	Burgos Burpellet BH	243
83	BONNEU Kamiel	Intermarché - Wanty	248
84	APARICIO Mario	Burgos Burpellet BH	250
85	CHRISTEN Fabio	Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	268
86	BISIAUX Léo	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	271
87	BOU Joan	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	272
88	MARTINEZ Juan Guillermo	Team Picnic PostNL	288
89	BARCELÓ Fernando	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	293
90	KWIATKOWSKI Michał	INEOS Grenadiers	305
91	CAVAGNA Rémi	Groupama - FDJ	310
92	SHAW James	EF Education - EasyPost	313
93	TURNER Ben	INEOS Grenadiers	319
94	HAMILTON Chris	Team Picnic PostNL	326
95	BJERG Mikkel	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	328
96	BALDERSTONE Abel	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	340
97	PETERS Nans	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	361
98	COQUARD Bryan	Cofidis	362
99	CONCI Nicola	XDS Astana Team	370
100	CARR Simon	Cofidis	384

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

If ever there were a table that could have been cut shorter...

Unless the intention is to provoke discussion as to whether Nans Peters is in fact more likely to win than Abel Balderstone. (I don't even follow cricket, and I still have to fight an instinct to call him "Chris"),

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I think Jasper Philipsen might rank behind Esteban Chaves.

 

[SHAD0W93]

What you’re saying is Kwiatkowski still has a chance.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I think Jasper Philipsen might rank behind Esteban Chaves.

I also think that more than 16 riders in the list have a greater chance of winning a GT than Mads Pedersen.