GC Contenders in 2011

[airstream]

Gadret > Rolland.

Just saying.

Wow. Agreed. So far. Probably, Gadret's peak passed this year, whereas Rolland has many many years. Unfortunately, I guess we won't be able to compare them head to head next year.

 

[Zoncolan]

Next year I wouldnt be shocked to see Sylvain Chavannel finish ahead of Gadret.

But we werent talking about next year, but in general.

In general at the Tour, Gadret's highest placing is 19th last year, Rolland's is 11th this year. Next year, the edge is going to be even more with Rolland, and the year after that, and the year after that...
So, in general, I'd say Rolland is a better Tour rider/prospect than Gadret.
Rolland is only gonna get better with time, whereas Gadret...

 

[The Hitch]

In general at the Tour, Gadret's highest placing is 19th last year, Rolland's is 11th this year. Next year, the edge is going to be even more with Rolland, and the year after that, and the year after that...
So, in general, I'd say Rolland is a better Tour rider/prospect than Gadret.
Rolland is only gonna get better with time, whereas Gadret...

You do know Gadret did a very brutal Giro that time he came 19th in the Tour. You cant really compare a rider who is peaking for a race to one who is doing it after his main event.

 

[airstream]

Next year I wouldnt be shocked to see Sylvain Chavannel finish ahead of Gadret.

But we werent talking about next year, but in general.

Gadret is unlikely to make his mind up to participate in the Tour. A hundred to one after 4th place he realizes the Giro may be his last chance to fight for GT podium. However, it's a difficult question who of them will finish higher if Gadret goes.

 

[Zoncolan]

You do know Gadret did a very brutal Giro that time he came 19th in the Tour. You cant really compare a rider who is peaking for a race to one who is doing it after his main event.

Yes, I do know that.
The FACT is that Gadret isn't a Tour rider. For the Giro, with few ITT km and super steep climbs sure, he can top 5 there, as he has proven already. Those Tour climbs aren't for riders like him. He will never top 5 at the Tour, maybe never even top 10 IMO, whereas Rolland will probably have multiple top 10 finishes there.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

stage 14 Plateau de Beille: contador attacks dropping everyone except schleck and maybe samu. cadel 4th 10 secs back. so no time gains

I have no beef with your surmisals of what might have happened, except for this. Plateau de Beille is very hard, and unless Contador's attack came in the last 2km (which would be uncharacteristic) I would expect time gaps to be much bigger than that. He might not flatten everybody like he did on Großglockner, but I can't see 4 guys within ten seconds there. Hell, if they've been subjected to a true Contador attack almost everybody will be solo or in twos and threes, and you could easily see people lose 10 seconds just in the sprint to the line.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, I do know that.
The FACT is that Gadret isn't a Tour rider. For the Giro, with few ITT km and super steep climbs sure, he can top 5 there, as he has proven already. Those Tour climbs aren't for riders like him. He will never top 5 at the Tour, maybe never even top 10 IMO, whereas Rolland will probably have multiple top 10 finishes there.

Gadret podiums the Giro and Contador gets banned --> 2013 Tour with MTFs on Mont du Chat and Laberouat, and a stage like my Pays-Basque Français stage over Elhursaro and Errozate:

Mont du Chat:

Laberouat:

Elhursaro/Arnostegi:

Errozate:

All of a sudden Gadret going top 10 at the Tour becomes more likely (though I know he'll actually be pretty old by then, but I can dream of seeing a Tour route like this still).

 

[Zoncolan]

but I can dream of seeing a Tour route like this still).

That's all we can do, dream.
With Zomegnan gone, the Giro will also revert to a more tame parcours.

 

[airstream]

I have no beef with your surmisals of what might have happened, except for this. Plateau de Beille is very hard, and unless Contador's attack came in the last 2km (which would be uncharacteristic) I would expect time gaps to be much bigger than that. He might not flatten everybody like he did on Großglockner, but I can't see 4 guys within ten seconds there. Hell, if they've been subjected to a true Contador attack almost everybody will be solo or in twos and threes, and you could easily see people lose 10 seconds just in the sprint to the line.

The penultimate km of Plateau de Beille has average gradient about 6-6.5%, the last one is false flat at all. That's why as for such an assumed attack he would really have gained about 10-15sec. Another thing is he would have tried earlier for sure. By the way Arcalis has the similar to Plato de Beille finish configuration. How many kms out did Contador attack then?

Are these your climbs situated within the traditional TdF mountain routes?

I'm afraid in this case his top-10 would be impossible all the same because Basso, Scarponi and Cobo would inevitably want to start as well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The penultimate km of Plateau de Beille has average gradient about 6-6.5%, the last one is false flat at all. That's why as for such an assumed attack he would really have gained about 10-15sec. Another thing is he would have tried earlier for sure. By the way Arcalis has the similar to Plato de Beille finish configuration. How many kms out did Contador attack then?

That was when he already had a big lead thanks to the ITT and TTT though. The bigger your advantage, the less you have to attack. Contador had an advantage on Großglockner but he didn't wait for the last 2km then, did he! No, Contador, in his Giro '11 form, would have gone for it earlier on the climb. And maybe Andy Schleck could have stuck it, but nobody else. They'd have been limiting their losses, and if he did attack, riders wouldn't have been coming in as one big cosy group of GC favourites, that's for sure.

Are these your climbs situated within the traditional TdF mountain routes?

I'm afraid in this case his top-10 would be impossible all the same because Basso, Scarponi and Cobo would inevitably want to start as well.

Inevitably.

These climbs are all totally feasible to use. Mont du Chat is close to Chambéry and Aix-les-Bains, not that far north of Grenoble. It's on the edges of the Alps, but certainly usable. Laberouat is just to the west of the area of the Pyrenées they tend to use (lots of very good climbs in the western and eastern Pyrenées they never use, always using the same central bit). It can be attached to Bouesou and Pierre St Martin in the west, and with a bit of false flat to Marie-Blanque and Aubisque in the east. The two French-Basque climbs are a bit further from the Tour's traditional spots, but you could easily do them back to back followed by Sourzay and Irati (my stage in the Race Design thread used this approach), and you could even descend from there and finish on the Port de Larrau if you wanted. It would make an awesome first Pyrenean stage if you began it somewhere like Bayonne, Biarritz or Orthez; it's probably a bit too far to do it from Pau and still climb the toughest sides of the two.

 

[airstream]

That was when he already had a big lead thanks to the ITT and TTT though. The bigger your advantage, the less you have to attack. Contador had an advantage on Großglockner but he didn't wait for the last 2km then, did he! No, Contador, in his Giro '11 form, would have gone for it earlier on the climb. And maybe Andy Schleck could have stuck it, but nobody else. They'd have been limiting their losses, and if he did attack, riders wouldn't have been coming in as one big cosy group of GC favourites, that's for sure.

Yeah he attacked with Rujano seeing that Nibali and Scarponi were dying very slowly... For sure, but considering how the things go nowadays, I don't think he could have attacked a lot earlier than from 2k out. In 2007 Contador had made a decisive move from 5.6k out, the tempo before this was crazy in comparison to what we saw this year though. But that times left us forever...

Whoah...It would be great to watch such steep climbs in decorations of the Tour. Hopefully Prudomme will risk including them one day.

 

[Angliru]

The penultimate km of Plateau de Beille has average gradient about 6-6.5%, the last one is false flat at all. That's why as for such an assumed attack he would really have gained about 10-15sec. Another thing is he would have tried earlier for sure. By the way Arcalis has the similar to Plato de Beille finish configuration. How many kms out did Contador attack then?

Are these your climbs situated within the traditional TdF mountain routes?

I'm afraid in this case his top-10 would be impossible all the same because Basso, Scarponi and Cobo would inevitably want to start as well.

He delayed his attack because of a strong headwind and the fact that Leipheimer had flatted/had a mechanical at the base of the climb and Contador had to wait till he regained contact with the elite group. Shortly after Leipheimer made contact, a series of attacks took place: first by Evans and then by JVB2. Contador countered/responded to the 2nd attack and just kept going. Had Leipheimer not had a mechanical and there not have been such a strong headwind, he likely would've attacked much earlier since his goal was to put some distance between himself and his opponents, especially Armstrong! Additionally the fact that this first mtf was in Spain everyone had to know that he wanted to put on a good performance.

 

[airstream]

He delayed his attack because of a strong headwind and the fact that Leipheimer had flatted/had a mechanical at the base of the climb and Contador had to wait till he regained contact with the elite group.

Wow. I didn't know it. Very interesting whether he could have been able to make a fire and go away successfully from 70 people pack. The favourites looked so passive on that stage. Though, Contador obviously had his own strategy, different from team one.

 

[El Pistolero]

Wow. I didn't know it. Very interesting whether he could have been able to make a fire and go away successfully from 70 people pack. The favourites looked so passive on that stage. Though, Contador obviously had his own strategy, different from team one.

Contador also wasn't allowed to attack from Bruyneel and was waiting for other people to attack, so he could do a counter-attack and not have to explain him self to scum like Bruyneel afterwards.

 

[Angliru]

Contador also wasn't allowed to attack from Bruyneel and was waiting for other people to attack, so he could do a counter-attack and not have to explain him self to scum like Bruyneel afterwards.

LOL!! Your's is the "Keepin' it real" version of the events. Mine was edited for Armstrong/Bruyneel fans to keep the peace.

 

[airstream]

El Pistolero helps me get what troll means.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Contador also wasn't allowed to attack from Bruyneel and was waiting for other people to attack, so he could do a counter-attack and not have to explain him self to scum like Bruyneel afterwards.

amen to that

 

[c&cfan]

El Pistolero helps me get what troll means.

yes. but you aren't better. you are either ignorant or blind.

 

[Angliru]

Wow. I didn't know it. Very interesting whether he could have been able to make a fire and go away successfully from 70 people pack. The favourites looked so passive on that stage. Though, Contador obviously had his own strategy, different from team one.

It was give in to the failed strategy of getting Armstrong in yellow over all else and then be stuck in the "can't attack the yellow jersey/teammate" role or take matters into his own hands to eliminate that plan from the realm of possibilities.

You say they were passive but did you miss that I mentioned there was a strong headwind on the final climb? Why Evans attacked is a mystery to me other than maybe he thought that the slow tempo was a mistaken (on his part and his team's) sign of weakness in his opponents since the only 2 riders from that group to attack were both from Silence-Lotto. Bruyneel and Armstrong explained afterwards that an attack on that climb was not in their plan but of course Armstrong said he didn't expect Contador to follow the plan.

 

[airstream]

It was give in to the failed strategy of getting Armstrong in yellow over all else and then be stuck in the "can't attack the yellow jersey/teammate" role or take matters into his own hands to eliminate that plan from the realm of possibilities.

You say they were passive but did you miss that I mentioned there was a strong headwind on the final climb? Why Evans attacked is a mystery to me other than maybe he thought that the slow tempo was a mistaken (on his part and his team's) sign of weakness in his opponents since the only 2 riders from that group to attack were both from Silence-Lotto. Bruyneel and Armstrong explained afterwards that an attack on that climb was not in their plan but of course Armstrong said he didn't expect Contador to follow the plan.

Cadel was far behind in GC and had to try to do something even if it doesn't work. Sure, there was the factor of headwind, but it is seldom decisive. Probably, headwind killed the action completely on Bonette over the last years, as for GT's, at least. Who could attack barring Contador? Schleck, who rode his first TdF MTF as a captain? - I don't think so, LA, Wiggo and Nibali - all the more so.

yes. but you aren't better. you are either ignorant or blind.

I've already understood you're the only man who roots for cyclists being absolutely unbiased. Respect.

 

[Angliru]

Cadel was far behind in GC and had to try to do something even if it doesn't work. Sure, there was the factor of headwind, but it is seldom decisive. Probably, headwind killed the action completely on Bonette over the last years, as for GT's, at least. Who could attack barring Contador? Schleck, who rode his first TdF MTF as a captain? - I don't think so, LA, Wiggo and Nibali - all the more so.

Really??? It discourages many a rider from launching an attack and is the cause of many a rider who is fooled by the comfort of the peloton and launches a failed attack into a wind that they drastically underestimated.

I had forgotten about Evans' time loss in the TTT.

 

[greenedge]

Talking about Basso, does anyone think he would have at least podiumed the Tour if not for the crash in the lead up to the race.

I thought he might have as he said his "Stamina" would come to the play in the 3rd week. Unfortunately it did not but on stage 12/14 i thought he looked strongest out of the GC contenders. I think he might have but Andy, Contador, Samu and Cadel i think would have realistically finished ahead of him without the crash on stage 1.

 

[airstream]

Really??? It discourages many a rider from launching an attack and is the cause of many a rider who is fooled by the comfort of the peloton and launches a failed attack into a wind that they drastically underestimated.

I had forgotten about Evans' time loss in the TTT.

Hm, I put it a bit incorrectly. Of course, headwind is very important, but not so much to abandon an attack. Etna has more open for blowing by wind landscape than Arcalis has, however it did not confused Contador at all.

 

[El Pistolero]

Hm, I put it a bit incorrectly. Of course, headwind is very important, but not so much to abandon an attack. Etna has more open for blowing by wind landscape than Arcalis does, however it did not confused Contador at all.

Notice how all your examples on climbs with heavy wind only include a certain mister Contador attacking?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Notice how all your examples on climbs with heavy wind only include a certain mister Contador attacking?

I just wanted to post something similar.