GC Contenders in 2011

[The Hitch]

It's not about choice. He wouldn't drop Andy at all or win 10-15 sec maximum. In 2009 Schleck wasn't so strong and lost to Contador the first mutual fight.

In 2005 Basso said something like: "The Giro climbs are harder, but the Tour ones are passed twice faster" This thought is deeply ingrained into my mind. There is a gulf between Scarponi and Andy.

2005. In 2005 the Giro was contested between 2 Italians. Another 4 Italians made the top 10.

Italians won over half the stages and the last 10 winners of the race had been Italian.

Today the situation is very different.

Italians have won 1 out of the last 4 Giros.

Rather than 6, Italy had only 2 members in the top 10 this year.

They only won 5 stages. Spain won more.

Today its a global event. Dont confuse it with 2005.

The competition is bigger, badder, better.

 

[richo36]

Exactly. Not sure what the big deal is. Once you understand his perspective, it's no different than anyone else's opinion around here.

Cut him some slack.

I agree with part of his argument. I do think that if contador rode the tour in his "giro" form he would of won by TT not in the mountains. but depends on how you look at it. If you look at how he would beat cadel, frank, wiggins, etc you would say he beat them in the mountains. Comparing him to andy you would say he beat him in the TT.

this is How i feel the race would of went if contador was in his giro form. Assuming no crashes. just the main stages.

stage 2 TTT: Andy gains 24 secs over contador (actual gain this year)
stage 4: Contador gains 8 seconds over andy
stage 8: No gains.
stage 12: No gains. (without being injuried and fully fit contador would not lose time)
stage 14 Plateau de Beille: contador attacks dropping everyone except schleck and maybe samu. cadel 4th 10 secs back. so no time gains
stage 16: ok here is a point we could argue all day but my feeling is that contador not being behind on time, he wouldnt of attacked here, even though he is a good decender i feel he would of waited for galibier and alp. Not worth the risk on the descent.
stage 18: There would of been no huge attack from andy so far out. Would of come down to the galibier. Here andy and contador would smoke everyoneelse but i still think think they would finish together on this climb as i believe it suits andy.
stage 19: no 90km out attack from contador but i feel contador would crack andy today in the final couple kms of the alpe gaining between 10-20 secs.
stage 20: contador smashes the TT winnining the tour.


So thats my logic in saying contador wins in the TT as i feel it will be very tight after stage 19.

then again i could be completly wrong and i think andy is better than he really is. I feel andy just lacks tactics so with contador there making the moves he would have no choice but to follow.

 

[The Hitch]

you are right of course.
actually it might be you. or me. or is it the hitch?!
hitch u've been flagged. now reveal yourself!

lol yeah. Its not like I spend enough time here as it is

 

[Publicus]

I agree with part of his argument. I do think that if contador rode the tour in his "giro" form he would of won by TT not in the mountains. but depends on how you look at it. If you look at how he would beat cadel, frank, wiggins, etc you would say he beat them in the mountains. Comparing him to andy you would say he beat him in the TT.

this is How i feel the race would of went if contador was in his giro form. Assuming no crashes. just the main stages.

stage 2 TTT: Andy gains 24 secs over contador (actual gain this year)
stage 4: Contador gains 8 seconds over andy
stage 8: No gains.
stage 12: No gains. (without being injuried and fully fit contador would not lose time)
stage 14 Plateau de Beille: contador attacks dropping everyone except schleck and maybe samu. cadel 4th 10 secs back. so no time gains
stage 16: ok here is a point we could argue all day but my feeling is that contador not being behind on time, he wouldnt of attacked here, even though he is a good decender i feel he would of waited for galibier and alp. Not worth the risk on the descent.
stage 18: There would of been no huge attack from andy so far out. Would of come down to the galibier. Here andy and contador would smoke everyoneelse but i still think think they would finish together on this climb as i believe it suits andy.
stage 19: no 90km out attack from contador but i feel contador would crack andy today in the final couple kms of the alpe gaining between 10-20 secs.
stage 20: contador smashes the TT winnining the tour.


So thats my logic in saying contador wins in the TT as i feel it will be very tight after stage 19.

then again i could be completly wrong and i think andy is better than he really is. I feel andy just lacks tactics so with contador there making the moves he would have no choice but to follow.

I could see it playing out this way. That being said, no Giro in his legs Contador would have been a lot more aggressive (and effective) than the post-Giro 2011 Tour Contador. We'll never know, but this is what we have until next year (assuming, of course, that Contador will be allowed to ride).

 

[airstream]

2005. In 2005 the Giro was contested between 2 Italians. Another 4 Italians made the top 10.

Italians won over half the stages and the last 10 winners of the race had been Italian.

Today the situation is very different.

Italians have won 1 out of the last 4 Giros.

Rather than 6, Italy had only 2 members in the top 10 this year.

They only won 5 stages. Spain won more.

Today its a global event. Dont confuse it with 2005.

The competition is bigger, badder, better.

I understand you like the Giro very much, but it will always be sort of event of local scale compared to the Tour. Certainly '08, '09 editions had an international color. '10 was dominated by Italians mostly. This year Contador went to the Giro but this sharpened the rivalry in no ways. He simply tore an italian field. It gave a foreign winner but unlikely to make "competition is bigger, badder, better". Yeah, my point doesn't take into account the guys like Gadret or Purito, but they are not able to fight for the top-3 and maybe even a top-5.

 

[Ferminal]

I understand you like the Giro very much, but it will always be sort of event of local scale compared to the Tour. Certainly '08, '09 editions had an international color. '10 was dominated by Italians mostly. This year Contador went to the Giro but this sharpened the rivalry in no ways. He simply tore an italian field. Yeah, my point doesn't take into account the guys like Gadret or Purito, but they are not able to fight for the top-3 and maybe even a top-5.

Italy didn't win a stage (sans Liquigas) for two weeks. Wiggins, Evans, Vinokourov, Porte and Arroyo all wore Pink. Australians won 3 of the 4 major classifications. Aside from Mortirolo-Aprica and Monte Grappa, they hardly dominated at all.

 

[airstream]

Italy didn't win a stage (sans Liquigas) for two weeks. Wiggins, Evans, Vinokourov, Porte and Arroyo all wore Pink. Australians won 3 of the 4 major classifications. Aside from Mortirolo-Aprica and Monte Grappa, they hardly dominated at all.

But we're talking about GC underlinedly, as I see, aren't we? Naturally somebody was doomed to wear maglia rosa until Basso takes it over. OK, I mean the final result.

 

[Ferminal]

Yes, but it's easy to look at the final GC and see three of the top four being Italian without actually looking at how the race progressed, and isolating the stages. They had the top three climbers on what ended up being the two most important mountain stages. Much of the first two weeks the GC was "dominated" by foreigners. Basso, Nibali and Scarponi (no one actually thought he would be able to climb anyway) were all less favoured to win by this point than Evans and Vino, and guys from L'Aquila like Arroyo, Tondo.

Evans goes on to win the Tour the next year... essentially he only had one bad day in the Giro last year, I guess that's enough to be "dominated".

 

[ramjambunath]

Talking about Basso, does anyone think he would have at least podiumed the Tour if not for the crash in the lead up to the race.

 

[richo36]

Talking about Basso, does anyone think he would have at least podiumed the Tour if not for the crash in the lead up to the race.

If the race panned out the exact way it did, i.e. all the crashes, both samu and contador losing time, i think he would of. As long as he TT better than frank.

 

[richo36]

Yes, but it's easy to look at the final GC and see three of the top four being Italian without actually looking at how the race progressed, and isolating the stages. They had the top three climbers on what ended up being the two most important mountain stages. Much of the first two weeks the GC was "dominated" by foreigners. Basso, Nibali and Scarponi (no one actually thought he would be able to climb anyway) were all less favoured to win by this point than Evans and Vino, and guys from L'Aquila like Arroyo, Tondo.

Evans goes on to win the Tour the next year... essentially he only had one bad day in the Giro last year, I guess that's enough to be "dominated".

As an evans fan i was getting really excited. Really thought he was going to win 2010 giro. Was riding so well. I think it was more the australia show that year than the italian show.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I understand you like the Giro very much, but it will always be sort of event of local scale compared to the Tour. Certainly '08, '09 editions had an international color. '10 was dominated by Italians mostly. This year Contador went to the Giro but this sharpened the rivalry in no ways. He simply tore an italian field. It gave a foreign winner but unlikely to make "competition is bigger, badder, better". Yeah, my point doesn't take into account the guys like Gadret or Purito, but they are not able to fight for the top-3 and maybe even a top-5.

This is what I take issue with, rather than your stance on Contador..
Your infer that the Giro is some sort of backwater, rather than the second biggest cycling race on the planet. Since the arrival of the PT/WT, the race has become totally international.
If the 2010 Giro was a "local" affair, then so too was the 2011 Tour.
The only difference being that the standard of Italian riders is higher than the French.
Something virtually everybody agrees upon, although something tells me I shouldn't include you in that majority.

But we're talking about GC underlinedly, as I see, aren't we? Naturally somebody was doomed to wear maglia rosa until Basso takes it over. OK, I mean the final result.

Again, the only difference from this year's Tour was that Voeckler was doomed to eventually lose the maillot jeune.

 

[airstream]

Well, either you're overdoing by taking only that part of my opinion which can be challenged or I can't just express my thought clearly and understandably. Possibly, the second one. But it's not about prestigeness or status of the 2nd race in the world. It's exceptionally about a degree of contention, its general level, how to put it.. about its internal nerve and hardball. I haven't called the Giro sort of backwater. This Tour was different from the others. French showed themselves so brightly for the first time over many years whereas the Giro was always the race for Italians mostly

 

[Zoncolan]

the Giro was always the race for Italians mostly

Koblet, Gaul, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Roche, Fignon, Hampsten, Indurain, Rominger, Berzin, Contador, and Menchov are just some of the winners.
Van Steenbergen, Bobet, Van Springel, Fuente, De Muynck, Millar, Breukink, Mottet, Kubler, and LeMond are just some of the podium finishers.
I'll just mention De Vlaeminck's 3 points jerseys and 22 stages. The list is too long to go through all jersey and stage winners.
Who's who of cycling pretty much.

 

[airstream]

Koblet, Gaul, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Roche, Fignon, Hampsten, Indurain, Rominger, Berzin, Contador, and Menchov are just some of the winners.
I'll just mention De Vlaeminck's 3 points jerseys and 22 stages. The list is too long to go through all jersey and stage winners.

Yeah. But if to take the last 10-15 years the impact of foreigners in the TdF is immeasurably more than in the Giro. I'm looking into GC, for sure.

 

[Zoncolan]

Yeah. But if to take the last 10-15 years the impact of foreigners in the TdF is immeasurably more than in the Giro. I'm looking into GC, for sure.

That's more to do with the lack of a good French GC rider than the race being more international. Moreau, Jaja? Not exactly top GC riders.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Well, either you're overdoing by taking only that part of my opinion which can be challenged or I can't just express my thought clearly and understandably. Possibly, the second one. But it's not about prestigeness or status of the 2nd race in the world. It's exceptionally about a degree of contention, its general level, how to put it.. about its internal nerve and hardball. I haven't called the Giro sort of backwater. This Tour was different from the others. French showed themselves so brightly for the first time over many years whereas the Giro was always the race for Italians mostly

The Giro was quite international from the 60's al the way up to the early nineties, but after that it indeed changed to an almost all-italian affair. But in recent years (since Schlecks 2nd place in 07 I'd say) it's becoming more international(08 Contador, 09 Mensjov, 10 Basso, 11 Contador again, also more foreigners in the top 10) and prestigious again.

I do agree with the first bolded part, as the Tour is the only race, where everyone, from the biggest champion to the smallest domestique is in absolute top form(except for some that time their peak wrong ). In other GT's/ classics you've got some big man in really good form, but some are there just to fill up the team...

 

[The Hitch]

French showed themselves so brightly for the first time over many years whereas the Giro was always the race for Italians mostly

Yeah it was, and now it isnt.

So what Basso said in 2005 when Italians were the only ones doing it doesn't hold.

When Basso said that he wasnt facing Armstrong at the Giro. Neither was he facing Ullrich nor Kloeden nor Vino.

This year Armstrong successor as the best gc rider in the world was doing the Giro. So was the guy who came 3rd in the previous Tour de France. So was the guy that came 3rd on the main mtf, won a stage and came 8th.

So this idea that they go twice as fast in the mountains in the Tour belongs in 2005 not 2011.

 

[airstream]

Yeah it was, and now it isnt.

Very likely next year itll be again.

So what Basso said in 2005 when Italians were the only ones doing it doesn't hold.

I'm not saying that only they make the race,but simply most of the contenders are always Italians. I don't think the fact Italians were the main protagonists in 2005 weakened the race.

When Basso said that he wasnt facing Armstrong at the Giro. Neither was he facing Ullrich nor Kloeden nor Vino.

I can confirm this, replacing Basso by Contador and Ulle, Klodi and Vino by the Schlecks and Evans. Though I dont quite understand what you want to prove, considering 4-5 main Tour favourites not often participate in the same year Giro. Rujano'05 would defy these 3 guys, that prefer sloping ascents, on the Finestre, trust.

This year Armstrong successor as the best gc rider in the world was doing the Giro. So was the guy who came 3rd in the previous Tour de France. So was the guy that came 3rd on the main mtf, won a stage and came 8th.

I assume, many riders would agree with Basso about that, having much less achievements.

So this idea that they go twice as fast in the mountains in the Tour belongs in 2005 not 2011.

Hard to say. It's rather the matter of emotional perception of the Giro and the TdF.
I understand why many fans like the Giro more. It has more poetry and heart. But watching the stages like Plateau de Beille'07 or Galibier I find myself thinking things like these can happen only in Le Tour.

 

[Mellow Velo]

That's more to do with the lack of a good French GC rider than the race being more international. Moreau, Jaja? Not exactly top GC riders.

Exactly the point I was trying to make.

 

[airstream]

Exactly the point I was trying to make.

I'm bringing the fact, you're giving its explanation. But by and large it changes nothing. The TdF needs to have 3-4 Rollands to get the same national cue as the Giro has.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I'm bringing the fact, you're giving its explanation. But by and large it changes nothing. The TdF needs to have 3-4 Rollands to get the same national cue as the Giro has.

like Mellow and zoncolan said what the hell can anyone do if they are not good enough

 

[The Hitch]

I'm bringing the fact, you're giving its explanation. But by and large it changes nothing. The TdF needs to have 3-4 Rollands to get the same national cue as the Giro has.

Gadret > Rolland.

Just saying.

 

[Zoncolan]

Gadret > Rolland.

Just saying.

Next year especially with all the ITT km

 

[The Hitch]

Next year especially with all the ITT km

Next year I wouldnt be shocked to see Sylvain Chavannel finish ahead of Gadret.

But we werent talking about next year, but in general.