GC Contenders in 2011

[El Pistolero]

It's my personal impression because usually they don't even think of budging at such sectors. Can you give any example, when Nibali easily kept up after serious explosive pull? I'm saying about the tempo set by Lampre riders.

The tempo set at the climbs by the Lampre riders was higher than the tempo set at the climbs by Leopard-Trek riders at the Tour, trust me

 

[Angliru]

Well, any favourable circumstance can be regarded as piece of luck but it does not negate the fact riders deserved to win. I'd say Contador got lucky when Armstrong couldn't take over maillot jaune after TTT. Perhaps it changed nothing, but it could have changed, I think.

Contador would've dropped Armstrong in all eventuality in the upcoming mountainous stages. Contador wasn't riding as a super-domestique, he was riding as co-leader. Once things heated up, Armstrong showed that he couldn't keep up with the Contador and Andy Schleck throughout the race and on Verbier he struggled to keep up with the rest of the contenders and was dropped, eventually escorted to the finish by Kloden. Don't be fooled into believing that he was holding his own w/ Contador and AS on Ventoux. Contador was riding to keep Armstrong on the podium and AS was riding trying to get Frank up there.

 

[Angliru]

Andy wouldn't let him go away

Is this the same Andy that couldn't distance his opponents on the first set of mountains in the Tour when it was most important for him to establish a cushion on those that would definitely put time into him in the ITT?

 

[Angliru]

Pff. It happened once. Nibali crashed on a descent once, I guess that makes it a weakness for him too

Actually twice. In another race in a ITT he lost his chain at the very beginning. May have been in a race early this season. I'm sure someone else can help in identifying the exact race.

 

[Angliru]

Certainly he's #1 favourite. I just wonder why so many people are sure that he would have smashed everyone the same way or.. ok, with slightly smaller advantage, in Tour. Probably, I just see the difference between Giro and Tour more than most do.

By the way, it looks like Scarponi likes exceptionally steep ramps. He feels uncomfortably on usual gently sloping 5-8% uphills. I mean long climbs for sure.

I think many are basing it on the what appeared to be Andy Schleck's regression instead of progress in his Tour performance coupled with Contador's seeming return to 2009 form/level as evidenced by his Giro performance. A fully rested Contador with no Giro in his legs was still for the most part able to climb with the elite riders until his fatigue and injuries from his multiple crashes caught up with him. Add to this a team that was also fatigued from the Giro and you have a rider that often had to fend for himself even on the flats and especially in the mountains.

 

[Angliru]

In short, I mean that I watched him " in superhuman mode" the only time on Verbier.

So you must have missed Andorra Arcalis in 2009 against a headwind?

 

[airstream]

The tempo set at the climbs by the Lampre riders was higher than the tempo set at the climbs by Leopard-Trek riders at the Tour, trust me

No need to bold the discussion down to personal preferences. Stuey, Voigt and Monfort did an excellent job. Andy didn't want to attack in the Pyrenees for the reason we will never know about.

Is this the same Andy that couldn't distance his opponents on the first set of mountains in the Tour when it was most important for him to establish a cushion on those that would definitely put time into him in the ITT?

Probably, if Contador had been attack, Andy would have done the race the other way. We don't know. Unfortunately, Andy refused to answer honestly about Plateau de Beille, preferring an idiotic explanation about "the climb wasn't steep enough".
OK, agreed. Though I don't see a big difference between fatigued Saxobank and fresh one, given the helpers' capabilities. Contador was tired rather mentally, lacked in concentration partially. It influenced him more than a physical fatigue. He didn't lose in Pyrenees almost nothing at all. But I don't think he could have done it a lot better without Giro as the race could have turned out to be quite differently.
It is a bottomless debate.

 

[ramjambunath]

Actually twice. In another race in a ITT he lost his chain at the very beginning. May have been in a race early this season. I'm sure someone else can help in identifying the exact race.

I think it was the Tour de Suisse prologue.

Edit: Yes, confirmed
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/75th-tour-de-suisse-upt/stage-1/results

Andy Schleck (Leopard Trek) continued to have problems with his drivetrain. Early on, a chain problem forced him to change bikes, and he came through the intermediate time check at 3km, near the top of the climb, as 93rd. He finished way down, about 1:18 behind Cancellara.

 

[Angliru]

OK, agreed. Though I don't see a big difference between fatigued Saxobank and fresh one, given the helpers' capabilities. Contador was tired rather mentally, lacked in concentration partially. It influenced him more than a physical fatigue. He didn't lose in Pyrenees almost nothing at all. But I don't think he could have done it a lot better without Giro as the race could have turned out to be quite differently.
It is a bottomless debate.

Riis' admitted strategy was to attempt to expend as little energy in Contador and the rest of Saxo as possible by having them ride mid pack, instead of constantly battling for position for the front, which was a never ending war on each stage. He also admitted it was a gamble of course and ultimately one that they lost on, considering the multiple crashes and one in particular that caused Contador to lose over a minute, although he luckily wasn't injured nor hit the pavement in that incident.

 

[Angliru]

I think it was the Tour de Suisse prologue.

Edit: Yes, confirmed
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/75th-tour-de-suisse-upt/stage-1/results

Thanks! I thought it was TdS but I wasn't certain.

 

[Publicus]

No need to bold the discussion down to personal preferences. Stuey, Voigt and Monfort did an excellent job. Andy didn't want to attack in the Pyrenees for the reason we will never know about.


Probably, if Contador had been attack, Andy would have done the race the other way. We don't know. Unfortunately, Andy refused to answer honestly about Plateau de Beille, preferring an idiotic explanation about "the climb wasn't steep enough".
OK, agreed. Though I don't see a big difference between fatigued Saxobank and fresh one, given the helpers' capabilities. Contador was tired rather mentally, lacked in concentration partially. It influenced him more than a physical fatigue. He didn't lose in Pyrenees almost nothing at all. But I don't think he could have done it a lot better without Giro as the race could have turned out to be quite differently. It is a bottomless debate.

Do I understand you to mean that Contador wouldn't have finished higher at the Tour if he hadn't done the Giro this year? That, in effect, the Giro had no impact on his Tour performance? Do I understand you correctly?

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Do I understand you to mean that Contador wouldn't have finished higher at the Tour if he hadn't done the Giro this year? That, in effect, the Giro had no impact on his Tour performance? Do I understand you correctly?

Welcome to the jungle sings Guns N Roses.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Do I understand you to mean that Contador wouldn't have finished higher at the Tour if he hadn't done the Giro this year? That, in effect, the Giro had no impact on his Tour performance? Do I understand you correctly?

i was wondering the same thing

 

[gustienordic]

This year he matched a very on form Evans pretty closely in Tirreno for example, and came 2nd to Contador ahead of a golden list of climbers in Catalunya.

So enough with this anti Scarponi campaign. The guy is a world beater, 1 of the best climbers in the world.

And he cracked very quickly.

So, I can definately see Contador dropping all the Tour contenders with an Etna like attack.

Andy Schleck on form might have something to say about that of course, I wouldnt be surprised to see him hang on, but of course Andy has a different weakness.

I think it would be interesting to do an analysis of each of the top GC riders, taking note of what kind of MTFs they are best at, what their other strengths are, etc.

For example, Schleck is great on long MTFs that are not overly steep, Scarponi is best on short climbs that are super steep, Samu is best on long climbs with an average gradient. With the right course, anyone of these guys would be able to crack the others. Scarponi could certainly drop Schleck on a short steep climb, but Schleck could easily drop Scarponi on a 25 km climb at 7%

 

[airstream]

Do I understand you to mean that Contador wouldn't have finished higher at the Tour if he hadn't done the Giro this year? That, in effect, the Giro had no impact on his Tour performance? Do I understand you correctly?

Not really. Read a couple of pages back. He would have been higher. But I don't think he could have been able to do the show like on Verbier or Etna and no more. I just try not to exaggerate the Giro impact. No matter how someone is great unlikely that Contador could have ridden the Pyreenes so good as he did being fatigued. To my mind it's obvious now that allegedly injured neck was a cheap trick to justify possible failure. Riis and Contador couldn't dream that the Schlecks act so hesitantly.
Yeah, you have a reason to laugh..

 

[Publicus]

Not really. Read a couple of pages back. He would have been higher. But I don't think he could have been able to do the show like on Verbier or Etna and no more.
Yeah, you have a reason to laugh..

Based on what? No more as in never again and if so, how do you arrive at that conclusion?

 

[sultanofhyd]

Based on what? No more as in never again and if so, how do you arrive at that conclusion?

Because it's the Tour and against Sir Andy Schleck.

 

[airstream]

Based on what? No more as in never again and if so, how do you arrive at that conclusion?

I don't want to post the same over and over again. If it's interesting for you, read previous pages, please.

 

[Publicus]

I don't want to post the same over and over again. If it's interesting for you, read previous pages, please.

Just read it. So basically you think that the Tour riders would never let him get that kind of psychological advantage by smashing the field a la Etna? You say that like they have a choice in the matter. Do you really think the entire Giro field conceded the race because they wanted to? By implication, you are arguing that it was not Contador's physical dominance but the mental weakness of the other riders that produced the result on Etna.

On more than a couple of occassions Andy has made comments about Contador wasn't that strong that he got away because 'x' or 'y' (see, e.g., Arcalis and Verbier), but the reality is that even accounting for the element of surprise, Contador ALWAYS built his advantage beyond whatever he gained as a result of his attack. Arcalis--Andy was only slightly caught off guard and yet he couldn't close down the attack. Verbier--the Schlecks were in fact the protoganists here (at least initially), but when AC went, only Andy tried and well, what was a 10 second gap became 43 seconds.

I don't dismiss Andy's considerable talents or strengths, but I think you are doing AC's considerable physical and mental strengths a disservice in your assessments.

 

[airstream]

You say that like they have a choice in the matter. Do you really think the entire Giro field conceded the race because they wanted to? By implication, you are arguing that it was not Contador's physical dominance but the mental weakness of the other riders that produced the result on Etna.
On more than a couple of occassions Andy has made comments about Contador wasn't that strong that he got away because 'x' or 'y' (see, e.g., Arcalis and Verbier), but the reality is that even accounting for the element of surprise, Contador ALWAYS built his advantage beyond whatever he gained as a result of his attack. Arcalis--Andy was only slightly caught off guard and yet he couldn't close down the attack. Verbier--the Schlecks were in fact the protoganists here (at least initially), but when AC went, only Andy tried and well, what was a 10 second gap became 43 seconds.
I don't dismiss Andy's considerable talents or strengths, but I think you are doing AC's considerable physical and mental strengths a disservice in your assessments.

It's not about choice. He wouldn't drop Andy at all or win 10-15 sec maximum. In 2009 Schleck wasn't so strong and lost to Contador the first mutual fight.

In 2005 Basso said something like: "The Giro climbs are harder, but the Tour ones are passed twice faster" This thought is deeply ingrained into my mind. There is a gulf between Scarponi and Andy.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Difficult to say. So many factors affect on them. To my mind, it's possible to win being stronger and being classier. In the Giro Contador was classier because he didn't need to compete with the field in strength, barring the stage to Etna. But his pure class wouldn't be sufficient to get top-3 or maybe even top-5 in the Tour.

So Contador in the form of the Giro wouldn't be sufficient to do better in the Tour than he actually did in the Tour? Did you forget that Contador has already won the thing 3 times?

Contador has won the Tour 3 times, but at no point had he been as impressive, as seemingly untouchable, as he was in the Giro this year.

 

[airstream]

Our discussion always collides with the fact that we see his Giro victory differently.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I think it would be interesting to do an analysis of each of the top GC riders, taking note of what kind of MTFs they are best at, what their other strengths are, etc.

For example, Schleck is great on long MTFs that are not overly steep, Scarponi is best on short climbs that are super steep, Samu is best on long climbs with an average gradient. With the right course, anyone of these guys would be able to crack the others. Scarponi could certainly drop Schleck on a short steep climb, but Schleck could easily drop Scarponi on a 25 km climb at 7%

Is that true? The only meaningful race Schleck has ever won was an Ardennes Classic.

 

[Publicus]

It's not about choice. He wouldn't drop Andy at all or win 10-15 sec maximum. In 2009 Schleck wasn't so strong and lost to Contador the first mutual fight.

In 2005 Basso said something like: "The Giro climbs are harder, but the Tour ones are passed twice faster" This thought is deeply ingrained into my mind. There is a gulf between Scarponi and Andy.

I see. Well hopefully AC learns how to ride the Tour so we can see if he can ever match Andy's 3 TDF victories....

In all seriousness, I think I pegged you right in my first comment. You are undervaluing AC's relative strengths.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Our discussion always collides with the fact that we see his Giro victory differently.

OK. I can agree to that.

Let me ask, in your opinion, who would have won the Tour de France, if Contador had not raced the Giro, and showed up with the form he showed at the Giro in France?