GC Contenders in 2011

[Benotti69]

Well, any favourable circumstance can be regarded as piece of luck but it does not negate the fact riders deserved to win. I'd say Contador got lucky when Armstrong couldn't take over maillot jaune after TTT. Perhaps it changed nothing, but it could have changed, I think.

Roche had no problem attacking Italian team leader Visentini to take the maglia rosa in the '87 Giro while Visentini was wearing it , I am sure Contador would have done the same.

 

[airstream]

Roche had no problem attacking Italian team leader Visentini to take the maglia rosa in the '87 Giro while Visentini was wearing it , I am sure Contador would have done the same.

Is it known whether Roche owed his DS sooo much as Contador did Bruyneel?
Just joking.

what living legend are you talking about? certainly can't be armstrong since you dislike contador for reasons that would make you hate armstrong. i wasn't aware that hinault was racing the 2009 tour for astana. . . or was it merckx? happened(which in case you don't remember didn't, so this is a bunch of what if's) would help armstrong instead is lying to himself

Right. Merckx. I don't dislike Contador and even more Armstrong. I just don't understand the general euphoria and the desire to evaluate almost everything from point of view of the latest GT. The things shouldn't be evaluated one-sidedly. 95% of what I read here is about "Contador will go to the TdF'12 having the form of Giro'11 and tear everyone". Naturally, I can't agree with it. The forum is full of "what if" discussions. Not so bad if it has been filled up with another little one.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Right. Merckx. I don't dislike Contador and even more Armstrong. I just don't understand the general euphoria and the desire to evaluate almost everything from point of view of the latest GT. The things shouldn't be evaluated one-sidedly. 95% of what I read here is about "Contador will go to the TdF'12 having the form of Giro'11 and tear everyone". Naturally, I can't agree with it.

what point can`t you agree with actually? the point that Contador wont be as superior next tour or that his top shape won`t be as good as this years giro?

If it is the superior part i can agree with you, i dont think he will beat Andy, Evans ore Samu with 6min+. But if you mean that you dont think he will copy his giro form i dont understand why.

 

[The Hitch]

Right. Merckx. I don't dislike Contador and even more Armstrong. I just don't understand the general euphoria and the desire to evaluate almost everything from point of view of the latest GT. The things shouldn't be evaluated one-sidedly. 95% of what I read here is about "Contador will go to the TdF'12 having the form of Giro'11 and tear everyone". Naturally, I can't agree with it. The forum is full of "what if" discussions. Not so bad if it has been filled up with another little one.

95% of posts before the 2011 World Championships said that Cavendish was going to win.

Does that mean everyone here is pro Cavendish?

 

[airstream]

If it is the superior part i can agree with you, i dont think he will beat Andy, Evans ore Samu with 6min+. But if you mean that you dont think he will copy his giro form i dont understand why.

The Tour field would never let him to feel so much self-confidence as he did on Etna. Fighing against more or less equal rivals ans against totally demoralized (Giro) rivals are 2 completely different stories. Or I'm wrong? Not everything can be measured with only physics in GT, it's a psychological duel too. I see scenarios of his defeat. They are not related to crashes, mechanicals and so on.

95% of posts before the 2011 World Championships said that Cavendish was going to win.

Well done. No wonder considering we talk about the most likely outcome. But Contador chances for the TdF win are not 95%, even having the Giro form in which he will inevitably be you don't doubt.

 

[The Hitch]

The Tour field would never let him to feel so much self-confidence as he did on Etna. Fighing against more or less equal rivals ans against totally demoralized (Giro) rivals are 2 completely different stories. Or I'm wrong? Not everything can be measured with only physics in GT, it's a psychological duel too. I see scenarios of his defeat. They are not related to crashes, mechanicals and so on.

I think self confidence is a personal thing. Not sure how on the day of the first mountain stage the Tour contenders are going to control Contadors self confidence? Flash lazers in his face? If he feels confident he goes, end of.

As I pointed out in the other thread Scarponi has consistently been 1 of the best riders in the world since he came back from his doping ban.

This year he matched a very on form Evans pretty closely in Tirreno for example, and came 2nd to Contador ahead of a golden list of climbers in Catalunya.

So enough with this anti Scarponi campaign. The guy is a world beater, 1 of the best climbers in the world.

And he cracked very quickly.

So, I can definately see Contador dropping all the Tour contenders with an Etna like attack.

Andy Schleck on form might have something to say about that of course, I wouldnt be surprised to see him hang on, but of course Andy has a different weakness.

 

[airstream]

I think self confidence is a personal thing. Not sure how on the day of the first mountain stage the Tour contenders are going to control Contadors self confidence? Flash lazers in his face? If he feels confident he goes, end of.

Andy wouldn't let him go away

As I pointed out in the other thread Scarponi has consistently been 1 of the best riders in the world since he came back from his doping ban.

Sure. But as for Giro. I like Scarponi. He was the only who didn't fear fighting against Contador in the open and tried to take up the challenge. The only who planned to attack in the mountains, besides Contador and Rujano (what we found out during the race)! But with all due respect it's not that type of climber who could keep up Contador. He's not mobile, not flexible, has a frying pan instead of gear rings and would never be able to succeed in the TdF. I don't write off on TT.
You put = between Evans and Scarponi or Sanchez and Scarponi (as you want) as climbers?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Andy wouldn't let him go away

Andy's the only guy who can climb with Contador when Contador is in superhuman mode, it seems from the past. A few selected others have climbed with a good Contador over time - Antón, Mosquera, and the likes of Valverde and Rodríguez have managed their losses well. I'd see Evans in that kind of group. He needs to use all his smarts and what will likely be a stronger team (unless they hamstring him by trying to do everything at once and having Hushovd and Gilbert in the team too), because peak level Contador beats peak level Evans over three weeks unless Contador makes a mistake or Evans does something audacious.

Schleck, well, he's the only guy that I feel confident in saying could climb with a top level Contador, but that's not truly representative since a top level Contador would kick his scrawny Lëtzebuergesch behind all over l'Hexagone in the chrono, whereas Evans is much more likely to be competitive by dint of not losing minutes against the clock.

 

[Havetts]

I like Scarponi for the sole fact that he was the only, besides Rujano attacking earlier, to even bother reacting to Contador on the Etna, there were only few who did that this Giro and even less, who stayed with him. Only Rujano, Scarponi & Kruijswijk could cope or try to cope when Contador accelerated this Giro..

But I don't think Scarponi is of the level of the Schleck, Evans and Samu. More of the level of Gesink & VDB2 when riding GC, Scarponi always has been good in hilly classics, even before his doping suspension so it shouldnt really surprise that he's good at races like T-A. And to say this year's Catalunya is a real way to say 'I'm up here for the GC for a Grand Tour' is pretty awkward as the only thing that was remotely hard was the climb to Vallnord/Sector Pal..

 

[The Hitch]

Contador and Schleck dropped everyone at will twice in the 2010 Tour. So its clear they are a level above the rest, and while Contador was equal to Schleck there, the other performances seem to indicate that Contador is better than Schleck

You put = between Evans and Scarponi or Sanchez and Scarponi (as you want) as climbers?

I think Evans and Sanchez are slightly better than Scarponi.

On PCM i would give it 80 vs 79 personally.

I like Scarponi for the sole fact that he was the only, besides Rujano attacking earlier, to even bother reacting to Contador on the Etna, there were only few who did that this Giro and even less, who stayed with him. Only Rujano, Scarponi & Kruijswijk could cope or try to cope when Contador accelerated this Giro..

But I don't think Scarponi is of the level of the Schleck, Evans and Samu. More of the level of Gesink & VDB2 when riding GC, Scarponi always has been good in hilly classics, even before his doping suspension so it shouldnt really surprise that he's good at races like T-A. And to say this year's Catalunya is a real way to say 'I'm up here for the GC for a Grand Tour' is pretty awkward as the only thing that was remotely hard was the climb to Vallnord/Sector Pal..

Im glad you give Scarponi the Gesink and VDB praise since most Dutchies and Belgians claim he is not at there level.

Yes Catalunya was a 1 climb race. and Scarponi was very good on that 1 climb.

Scarponi finished 10 seconds behind Evans on Zoncolan 2010, which showed he really can handle the biggest baddest mountains. He was poor their this year, but I would say his best performance was on Gardeccia this year. When Contador launched the attack it looked like he was going get another minute on the pack, and after Garzelli crosses the line you see Scarponi coming up just behind Contador.

 

[richo36]

Airstream what you trying to argue? is it for the better rider or are you saying who had the greatest challange to overcome to win?

If you are argueing for the later, i agree withyou. Evans had more challanges to overcome to win than contador. contador had the giro wrapped up by week 2. mentally and physically. Evans however went right down to the TT where he had to face a mental battle after losing prevously in the TT (sastre 2008).

However if you are argueing who was better overall you have to say contador. He smashed the giro then came to the tour after the hardest GT in years and came 5th after losing some time earlier on. When you look at how the giro affected other riders throughout the year that is amzing.

 

[richo36]

Scarponi finished 10 seconds behind Evans on Zoncolan 2010, which showed he really can handle the biggest baddest mountains. He was poor their this year, but I would say his best performance was on Gardeccia this year. When Contador launched the attack it looked like he was going get another minute on the pack, and after Garzelli crosses the line you see Scarponi coming up just behind Contador.

I dont really rate Evans to highly on the steeper climbs like the zoncolan. I think he is better on the 6-10% with no steep ramps. on this type of climb he is better than scarponi but on the Zoncolan or anything really steep it is who shows up on the day who is better.

 

[airstream]

Airstream what you trying to argue? is it for the better rider or are you saying who had the greatest challange to overcome to win?

If you are argueing for the later, i agree withyou. Evans had more challanges to overcome to win than contador. contador had the giro wrapped up by week 2. mentally and physically. Evans however went right down to the TT where he had to face a mental battle after losing prevously in the TT (sastre 2008).

Certainly he's #1 favourite. I just wonder why so many people are sure that he would have smashed everyone the same way or.. ok, with slightly smaller advantage, in Tour. Probably, I just see the difference between Giro and Tour more than most do.

By the way, it looks like Scarponi likes exceptionally steep ramps. He feels uncomfortably on usual gently sloping 5-8% uphills. I mean long climbs for sure.

 

[El Pistolero]

I think self confidence is a personal thing. Not sure how on the day of the first mountain stage the Tour contenders are going to control Contadors self confidence? Flash lazers in his face? If he feels confident he goes, end of.

As I pointed out in the other thread Scarponi has consistently been 1 of the best riders in the world since he came back from his doping ban.

This year he matched a very on form Evans pretty closely in Tirreno for example, and came 2nd to Contador ahead of a golden list of climbers in Catalunya.

So enough with this anti Scarponi campaign. The guy is a world beater, 1 of the best climbers in the world.

And he cracked very quickly.

So, I can definately see Contador dropping all the Tour contenders with an Etna like attack.

Andy Schleck on form might have something to say about that of course, I wouldnt be surprised to see him hang on, but of course Andy has a different weakness.

Yup, shifting gears.

 

[The Hitch]

Yup, shifting gears.

Pff. It happened once. Nibali crashed on a descent once, I guess that makes it a weakness for him too

 

[The Hitch]

Yup, shifting gears.

Pff. It happened once. Nibali crashed on a descent once, I guess that makes it a weakness for him too

Certainly he's #1 favourite. I just wonder why so many people are sure that he would have smashed everyone the same way or.. ok, with slightly smaller advantage, in Tour. Probably, I just see the difference between Giro and Tour more than most do.

By the way, it looks like Scarponi likes exceptionally steep ramps. He feels uncomfortably on usual gently sloping 5-8% uphills. I mean long climbs for sure.

Scarponis greatest win came on Aprica. 13km at 3.5%

 

[ferryman]

Certainly he's #1 favourite. I just wonder why so many people are sure that he would have smashed everyone the same way or.. ok, with slightly smaller advantage, in Tour. Probably, I just see the difference between Giro and Tour more than most do.

By the way, it looks like Scarponi likes exceptionally steep ramps. He feels uncomfortably on usual gently sloping 5-8% uphills. I mean long climbs for sure.

I'm glad your english has improved the longer your troll has lasted

 

[richo36]

Certainly he's #1 favourite. I just wonder why so many people are sure that he would have smashed everyone the same way or.. ok, with slightly smaller advantage, in Tour. Probably, I just see the difference between Giro and Tour more than most do.

By the way, it looks like Scarponi likes exceptionally steep ramps. He feels uncomfortably on usual gently sloping 5-8% uphills. I mean long climbs for sure.

I agree with this. i dont think he would smash everyone like people are saying. He would win, i dont question that at all but i think it would be closer than some think. my personal opinion is that if he rode this years tour with his form from the giro he would of beat andy by the TT, and maybe a little more but not much (10-15 seconds on 1 mountain stage). cadel most likely third only alittle behind schleck because he lost time in the mountains but gained it back in the TT.

 

[richo36]

I'm glad your english has improved the longer your troll has lasted

Why does everyone immediately say someone is trolling on this forum if they are going against the grain? Maybe you should stop being so one sided and open your eyes before commenting.

 

[Ferminal]

No one gets "smashed" at the Tour, unless something weird happens like your team deserts you, or there are multiple climbers who are "up for it".

 

[BM1979]

Contador and Schleck dropped everyone at will twice in the 2010 Tour. So its clear they are a level above the rest, and while Contador was equal to Schleck there, the other performances seem to indicate that Contador is better than Schleck



I think Evans and Sanchez are slightly better than Scarponi.

On PCM i would give it 80 vs 79 personally.





Im glad you give Scarponi the Gesink and VDB praise since most Dutchies and Belgians claim he is not at there level.

Yes Catalunya was a 1 climb race. and Scarponi was very good on that 1 climb.

Scarponi finished 10 seconds behind Evans on Zoncolan 2010, which showed he really can handle the biggest baddest mountains. He was poor their this year, but I would say his best performance was on Gardeccia this year. When Contador launched the attack it looked like he was going get another minute on the pack, and after Garzelli crosses the line you see Scarponi coming up just behind Contador.

Surely you can agree Evans timed his peak to perfection and rode like he never has before at the Tour , Everyone is saying how Contador and Schleck were off but dont want to take into account it's the best form Cadel has ever been in at the Tour.

I dont think he would beat Contador but I also believe he climbed better than he ever has before at the Tour this year.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

No one gets "smashed" at the Tour, unless something weird happens like your team deserts you, or there are multiple climbers who are "up for it".

This is true; Andy and O'Grady choose the Vuelta to get "smashed"

 

[airstream]

Scarponis greatest win came on Aprica. 13km at 3.5&#37]
Exactly, but that victory once again characterizes his ability to go rather Mortirolo than Aprica. Scarponi just happened to be in the group who needed more and whose interests added up very good.

I'm glad your english has improved the longer your troll has lasted

Thanks, I'm trying to improve. Don't know what "troll" means, only light irony though.

Andy's the only guy who can climb with Contador when Contador is in superhuman mode, it seems from the past...

Difficult to say. So many factors affect on them. To my mind, it's possible to win being stronger and being classier. In the Giro Contador was classier because he didn't need to compete with the field in strength, barring the stage to Etna. But his pure class wouldn't be sufficient to get top-3 or maybe even top-5 in the Tour.
I watched Etna stage 3-4 times. The tempo was damn slow if Contador decided to attack on 4-5% sector. I don't try to belittle his remarkable riding. That was a great victory. But that stage is not only about how brilliant he was, about how awful Nibali, Menchov and the others were miserable too. Even Sivtsov, Dupont and Arroyo (!) tried to go away. Could you imagine this on any other MTF?
In short, I mean that I watched him " in superhuman mode" the only time on Verbier.

 

[El Pistolero]

Exactly, but that victory once again characterizes his ability to go rather Mortirolo than Aprica. Scarponi just happened to be in the group who needed more and whose interests added up very good.



Thanks, I'm trying to improve. Don't know what "troll" means, only light irony though.


Difficult to say. So many factors affect on them. To my mind, it's possible to win being stronger and being classier. In the Giro Contador was classier because he didn't need to compete with the field in strength, barring the stage to Etna. But his pure class wouldn't be sufficient to get top-3 or maybe even top-5 in the Tour.
I watched Etna stage 3-4 times. The tempo was damn slow if Contador decided to attack on 4-5% sector. I don't try to belittle his remarkable riding. That was a great victory. But that stage is not only about how brilliant he was, about how awful Nibali, Menchov and the others were miserable too. Even Sivtsov, Dupont and Arroyo (!) tried to go away. Could you imagine this on any other MTF?
In short, I mean that I watched him " in superhuman mode" the only time on Verbier.

Lol? Nibali said he didn't even try to follow Contador because he was going way too fast for him. He even called it the fastest acceleration he has ever seen with his own eyes on a mountain. Tempo was damn slow? Contador was putting out 6.87 watts/kg for 3km long with strong winds affecting his tempo(from km 6 to km 3 on the Etna), so the real number must be even higher! To compare: the guys behind him were putting out an average of 5.79 watts/kg between km 6 and km 3. The watts/kg in the Tour mountains this year barely hit 6 watts/kg.

From dr Ferrari:
On the ascent to Verbier (638m of difference in height at 7.5%) Alberto Contador (62kg) climbed at 1852 m/h, equal to 6.73 w/kg, developing an average of 417w.

Lance Armstrong (72 kg) climbed at 1720 m/h, equal to 6.25 w/kg, developing 450w.

The difference between their VAM's is 7.4% in favor of Alberto, while Lance, whose body weight is 16% heavier, pushed 8% more watts: a suggestion that in the upcoming time trial in Annecy it could be a very close and uncertain duel.

In Arcalis (751m of ascent at 7.1%) Contador climbed at 1671 m/h, equal to 6.18 w/kg, with Armstrong and all the other best riders at 1649 m/h (6.10 w/kg); but in the last couple of km Alberto had already showed a power that was 7.2% superior to his rivals'.

 

[airstream]

Lol? Nibali said he didn't even try to follow Contador because he was going way too fast for him. He even called it the fastest acceleration he has ever seen with his own eyes on a mountain. Tempo was damn slow? Contador was putting out 6.87 watts/kg for 3km long with strong winds affecting his tempo(from km 6 to km 3 on the Etna), so the real number must be even higher! To compare: the guys behind him were putting out an average of 5.79 watts/kg between km 6 and km 3. The watts/kg in the Tour mountains barely hit 6 watts/kg.

I'm saying about the tempo set by Lampre riders. It's my personal impression because usually they don't even think of budging at such sectors. Can you give any example, when Nibali easily kept up after serious explosive pull? Actually Menchov reacts on attacks having less difficulties than Nibali.
Thanks. I've seen this statistics.