GC Power Ranking

[Tonton]

As often, I agree with @Red Rick, the spaces between 1 on a 2, 2 and 3. For me 3-4 with Remco and Primoz. After that, a 24 and a 22 year-old just exploded the rankings and move to the top...with this field, in the biggest bike race, for three weeks, Florian is 5 and Oscar is 6. Joao and Simon at 7-8. A few more very, very close...No Italian, no French...yikes...

 

[AlfaLum]

1. Pogacar
5. Vingegaard
7. Lipowitz
9. Del Toro

Nobody in between

 

[SHAD0W93]

I’ll wait till the Vuelta for the rest but clear cut top two is:
1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard



3.


Then I still have this for week stage races:

At this point of the year I’d have:
1. Pogacar

2. Roglic
3. Vingegaard

4. Almeida
5. Jorgenson/Ayuso/Evenepoel
8. The rest

 

[Gigs_98]

I think many of the disagreements are just due to "What is your GC power ranking" not being a well posed question. Do we rank peoples peak, do we ask how we would expect everyone to finish if they were to enter the same GT? If yes, which GT?

Take Yates vs Del Toro for example. Yates beat him so it seems he should be higher. But you cannot really rate someone based on one outlier performance on an outlier climb, so perhaps Del Toro should be ahead. But then there were only two hard raced mountain stages and Yates dropped him on both. However on the not so hard raced mountain stages like stage 16 and stage 19 Del Toro dropped Yates so which mountain stages were more representative for the "typical GT mountain stage". Then you can argue that Del Toro has had only one good GT performance so who tells yout that's not an outlier? But Yates hasn't come close to winning a GT in like 7 years so isn't that the real outlier?

I think either of those standpoints can be the correct one depending on what exactly you are arguing. I think Yates deservedly beat Del Toro based on being the overall better gc rider on routes with tough mountain stages (of which the Giro didn't even have a lot) but if they were now both peaking for the Vuelta I'd favor Del Toro over Yates.

The one guy I have no idea what to do with is Remco. I'm still quite convinced his peak level is clearly #3 but something always seems to get in the way. The guy has been spoken of as a GT threat for 6 years. In that time frame he has finished a GT riding for gc twice. That's just an absurdly bad rate. I don't know what this is down to, I don't know how much of it is bad luck and not predictive of the future. But it's getting striking. I think I would keep him in third for now but only because Roglic seems to have dropped off a bit, Almeida has not finished 2 of his last 3 GTs either and I'm not sure I totally trust Lipowitz yet. But once again I think what you rank him to a large degree depends on what factors you are taking into consideration.

 

[Red Rick]

I think many of the disagreements are just due to "What is your GC power ranking" not being a well posed question. Do we rank peoples peak, do we ask how we would expect everyone to finish if they were to enter the same GT? If yes, which GT?

Take Yates vs Del Toro for example. Yates beat him so it seems he should be higher. But you cannot really rate someone based on one outlier performance on an outlier climb, so perhaps Del Toro should be ahead. But then there were only two hard raced mountain stages and Yates dropped him on both. However on the not so hard raced mountain stages like stage 16 and stage 19 Del Toro dropped Yates so which mountain stages were more representative for the "typical GT mountain stage". Then you can argue that Del Toro has had only one good GT performance so who tells yout that's not an outlier? But Yates hasn't come close to winning a GT in like 7 years so isn't that the real outlier?

I think either of those standpoints can be the correct one depending on what exactly you are arguing. I think Yates deservedly beat Del Toro based on being the overall better gc rider on routes with tough mountain stages (of which the Giro didn't even have a lot) but if they were now both peaking for the Vuelta I'd favor Del Toro over Yates.

The one guy I have no idea what to do with is Remco. I'm still quite convinced his peak level is clearly #3 but something always seems to get in the way. The guy has been spoken of as a GT threat for 6 years. In that time frame he has finished a GT riding for gc twice. That's just an absurdly bad rate. I don't know what this is down to, I don't know how much of it is bad luck and not predictive of the future. But it's getting striking. I think I would keep him in third for now but only because Roglic seems to have dropped off a bit, Almeida has not finished 2 of his last 3 GTs either and I'm not sure I totally trust Lipowitz yet. But once again I think what you rank him to a large degree depends on what factors you are taking into consideration.

There's still the silly cheat code left in the question that it doesn't even specfiicy GTs. I take the question more that if everyone shows up for a GT today having targeted it and not crashing out, who performs best.

I take the very lazy approach of dividing them in tiers rather than making a specific ranking because that way you can avoid a lot of the nitpicking and focus on what the tier represents. And for me the tier below Vingegaard should be all the guys that should be the favorites if Pogacar and Vingegaard don't show up.

If you don't use tiers and have to pick a #3, I think you have to drop Evenepoel from there and have to go with Roglic based on his Vuelta last season or Lipowitz if you think he's washed. Lipowitz dropped less time in the mountains than Evenepoel did, and he was closer to Vingegaard than he was to the rest of the field on several occasions in this Tour, while Evenepoel was so only once.

For all the questions about reliability, Almeida and Ayuso also got no reliability, and they're basically keeping their reputation up through 1 week races alone. And I guess I index Ayuso too high becaus he made his only GT (a depleted Vuelta podium) 3 years ago and is apparently so unreliable Pogacar himself has a restraining order against him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

How would a top-10 look like if everyone raced in top shape in this TdF? Thats how I approach it.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Remco
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic
7. Ayuso
8-10. Carapaz, Simon, Del Toro, Onley, Landa, Mas, idk and care

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's pretty funny how Mas is always on almost everyone's list when we do this right after a Vuelta and on barely anyone's list when we do this right after a Tour, when his results in both races have been the most consistent of any non-big 2 GC rider. Makes me think we collectively aren't that good at doing this.

As always, GT-only ranking:

1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard

3. Evenepoel (nobody feels even remotely worthy of this spot. However, I don't want to penalise Evenepoel too much for a Tour where he started with compromised prep + broken rib, and when you figure that Roglic seems to have started his decline in earnest, Almeida has never finished on a Tour podium or in the top-2 of a Giro/Vuelta and Lipowitz is a less impressive Tour third place than Evenepoel was last year, I don't know who else is supposed to go here)
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic (would be lower if I didn't think his Tour prep was suboptimal too, but otoh I don't see how you can put him over Lipowitz after the past 3 weeks)
7. Mas
8. Ayuso (hardest rider to rank right now)
9. S Yates
10. Carapaz
11. Landa (the other type of rider a lot of us are prone to forgetting about)
12. Del Toro (will be higher, possibly by a lot, with one more year of development, but I can't put someone who was the third-best climber in a depleted Giro with zero other results to back it up in my top-10)
13. Onley (yes, I know that seems like a big difference between him and Lipowitz, but ultimately the only mountain stage he beat Lipowitz is the one where Lipowitz killed himself in the valley and he's also a bad time trialist. In addition, Lipowitz has more results to back up his Tour)

[biggest gap since the one between 2nd and 3rd]

14 and beyond. Nobody remotely worth considering for a top-10

So compared to last year, when I felt we had a fairly clear top-10: no more DFM, three new riders in the mix with Lipowitz, Del Toro and Onley, and the return of Simon Yates. Otherwise, little has changed.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Regarding the discussion about the question itself, what a power ranking is, etc., as the OP my intention was to make this like a power ranking in American football. Something that gets updated frequently, reflects actual results but isn’t just a rote recital of results, takes into account context and relative strength, and so on. Of course, that means it’s inherently ill defined and subjective because everyone has their own system. And sure you can use tiers instead of ranking but it’s just for a fun, a way to pass the timed, so might as well commit.

For me, I still believe Roglic is the third best GC rider, but it seemed tough to put him as third given what I saw the last two GTs. Then again, there was a lot of bad luck that got in the way, so I dropped him but kept him higher than he would have been just based on the tour. Similar with Remco. Some of that reflects each of their likelihood that they will experience mishaps that get in the way.

If I were ranking on how I thought they’d finish without mishaps and in top form in a randomly selected GT, each supported as sole leader by their team, it’d be:

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Roglic
4. Remco
5. Almeida
6. Ayuso
7. Lipowitz
8. Yates
9. Del Toro
10. Carapaz

 

[Peyroteo94]

Del Toro is in the top5 for me after what he did in the Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

It's pretty funny how Mas is always on almost everyone's list when we do this right after a Vuelta and on barely anyone's list when we do this right after a Tour, when his results in both races have been the most consistent of any non-big 2 GC rider. Makes me think we collectively aren't that good at doing this.

As always, GT-only ranking:

1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard

3. Evenepoel (nobody feels even remotely worthy of this spot. However, I don't want to penalise Evenepoel too much for a Tour where he started with compromised prep + broken rib, and when you figure that Roglic seems to have started his decline in earnest, Almeida has never finished on a Tour podium or in the top-2 of a Giro/Vuelta and Lipowitz is a less impressive Tour third place than Evenepoel was last year, I don't know who else is supposed to go here)
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic (would be lower if I didn't think his Tour prep was suboptimal too, but otoh I don't see how you can put him over Lipowitz after the past 3 weeks)
7. Mas
8. Ayuso (hardest rider to rank right now)
9. S Yates
10. Carapaz
11. Landa (the other type of rider a lot of us are prone to forgetting about)
12. Del Toro (will be higher, possibly by a lot, with one more year of development, but I can't put someone who was the third-best climber in a depleted Giro with zero other results to back it up in my top-10)
13. Onley (yes, I know that seems like a big difference between him and Lipowitz, but ultimately the only mountain stage he beat Lipowitz is the one where Lipowitz killed himself in the valley and he's also a bad time trialist. In addition, Lipowitz has more results to back up his Tour)

[biggest gap since the one between 2nd and 3rd]

14 and beyond. Nobody remotely worth considering for a top-10

So compared to last year, when I felt we had a fairly clear top-10: no more DFM, three new riders in the mix with Lipowitz, Del Toro and Onley, and the return of Simon Yates. Otherwise, little has changed.

I don't think it's too punitive to take Evenepoel down a notch for having one GT top 10 in the past 3 years, with his only non GT WT stage race win being UAE Tour on top of that.

I think it's also a lot of leeway to Enric Mas considering that even when he peaks for the Vuelta he doesn't have quite that much impact himself.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Remco is a top top rider, but he's a one-day race and ITT superstar. In stage races he's overrated. His vuelta win was one of the easiest GTs ever. He didn't won a stage race at WT level since 2023 uae tour. People seem to be putting him third purely because of TDF 2024

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I don't think it's too punitive to take Evenepoel down a notch for having one GT top 10 in the past 3 years, with his only non GT WT stage race win being UAE Tour on top of that.

I think it's also a lot of leeway to Enric Mas considering that even when he peaks for the Vuelta he doesn't have quite that much impact himself.

Keep in mind I had Evenepoel over Roglic at the end of last year's Vuelta too, and Roglic' star has fallen further than Evenepoel's in the meantime. And Almeida or Lipowitz in 3rd feels a bit ridiculous.

Also if I'm being nitpicky, the 2022 Vuelta is still within the past 3 years.

Mas gets a bit of credit in my list for being infinitely more reliable at the Vuelta than anyone else behind Pogacar and Vingegaard at any given GT, barring Roglic at the Vuelta. (And Roglic has failed at 3 of his last 4 GTs so cannot be considered as reliable overall).

 

[Red Rick]

Keep in mind I had Evenepoel over Roglic at the end of last year's Vuelta too, and Roglic' star has fallen further than Evenepoel's in the meantime. And Almeida or Lipowitz in 3rd feels a bit ridiculous.

Also if I'm being nitpicky, the 2022 Vuelta is still within the past 3 years.

Mas gets a bit of credit in my list for being infinitely more reliable at the Vuelta than anyone else behind Pogacar and Vingegaard at any given GT, barring Roglic at the Vuelta. (And Roglic has failed at 3 of his last 4 GTs so cannot be considered as reliable overall).

Evenepoel has also failed 3 of his last 4 GTs.

And I don't think that Lipowitz in 3rd is all that crazy, it's very similar to having Evenpoel in 3rd after the TdF last year for me.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

And I don't think that Lipowitz in 3rd is all that crazy, it's very similar to having Evenpoel in 3rd after the TdF last year for me.

Evenepoel had a fairly recent GT win at the time, Lipowitz has a career best GT result of 7th in a Vuelta. Evenepoel was 9:45 ahead of Almeida (who is a level above Lipowitz' competition this year) in 4th, Lipowitz will finish just a minute ahead of Onley and also has Gall and Halland Johannessen within 9:45 of him. Evenepoel was less far away from Pogacar than Lipowitz is, and Pogacar was probably better last year. I don't think they are similar at all.

Also, Almeida would most probably have beaten Lipowitz had he not crashed out, that's another reason why I can't put him in 3rd.

Evenepoel has also failed 3 of his last 4 GTs.

Everyone who you might consider for 3rd has a spotty track record in recent years, that's why it feels like nobody belongs there.

 

[hayneplane]

More evidence needed.

Del Toro is potentially better than Simon Yates. He has exactly one grand tour he has completed competing for GC. Simon Yates has won the Giro and Vuelta so I would still rate him higher as of today.

If you were to ask me to pick who was more likely to win a Grand Tour before the end of 2027 I would definitely pick Del Toro.

 

[Peyroteo94]

More evidence needed.

Del Toro is potentially better than Simon Yates. He has exactly one grand tour he has completed competing for GC. Simon Yates has won the Giro and Vuelta so I would still rate him higher as of today.

Without a doubt I was talking about their level right now. Yates was not stronger than Del Toro, he just took advantage of a fight between Del Toro and Caparaz.
Yates has a better GT record for sure though.

 

[hayneplane]

How would a top-10 look like if everyone raced in top shape in this TdF? Thats how I approach it.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Remco
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic
7. Ayuso
8-10. Carapaz, Simon, Del Toro, Onley, Landa, Mas, idk and care

Could also factor in where the race takes place as you can put plenty of money on a top 5 for Enric Mas if it is a Vuelta but you might has well chuck that money in the bin if it was any other race.

 

[P4rthen0n]

My ranking based both on the last 12 month's results/performances in my view, and who I'd chose as a team leader for my team for the next 12 months, in order:

1) Pogacar
2) Vingegaard
3) Remco (TdF 2024)
4) Almeida (TdF 2024 + 1 week races in 2025)
5) Lipowitz (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
6) Roglic (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
7) Ayuso (Giro 2025 befoer DNFing + 1 week races in 2025)
8) Del Toro (Giro 2025)
9) Carapaz (Vuelta 2024 + Giro 2025)
10) Jorgensen (TdF 2024 + Paris Nice)

The first 5 are easy. 6-10 are almost interchangeable.

 

[AmRacer]

My ranking based both on the last 12 month's results/performances in my view, and who I'd chose as a team leader for my team for the next 12 months, in order:

1) Pogacar
2) Vingegaard
3) Remco (TdF 2024)
4) Almeida (TdF 2024 + 1 week races in 2025)
5) Lipowitz (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
6) Roglic (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
7) Ayuso (Giro 2025 befoer DNFing + 1 week races in 2025)
8) Del Toro (Giro 2025)
9) Carapaz (Vuelta 2024 + Giro 2025)
10) Jorgensen (TdF 2024 + Paris Nice)

The first 5 are easy. 6-10 are almost interchangeable.

No Giro 2025 winner?

 

[P4rthen0n]

No Giro 2025 winner?

Stage 20 in the Giro was a fantastic performance from Visma and a complete shitshow by UAE and EFE.

I believe Simon Yates won the Giro fair and square but he was not the strongest rider. It was a fantastic result, but I would not have him in my top10 picks to lead my team for 2026, ahead of any of the guys I mentioned.
It's fine if you do.

 

[AmRacer]

Stage 20 in the Giro was a fantastic performance from Visma and a complete shitshow by UAE and EFE.

I believe Simon Yates won the Giro fair and square but he was not the strongest rider. It was a fantastic result, but I would not have him in my top10 picks to lead my team for 2026, ahead of any of the guys I mentioned.
It's fine if you do.

Next year? Then you can drop Rogla from the list as well.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I think Lipowitz in 3rd is fair after 3rd in the Tour, 3rd in Dauphine, 2nd in P-N and 4th in Basque. With 7th in the Vuelta last year and 3rd in Romandie he has shown impressive stability over the last 15 months with peak performance in the Dauphine and Tour.

Roglic, Almeida and Remco would be 4-6 on my list, then from 7 to 14th is extremely difficult with Ayoso, Yates, Del Toro, Carapaz, Mas, Onley, Jorgenson and Landa.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

My ranking based both on the last 12 month's results/performances in my view, and who I'd chose as a team leader for my team for the next 12 months, in order:

1) Pogacar
2) Vingegaard
3) Remco (TdF 2024)
4) Almeida (TdF 2024 + 1 week races in 2025)
5) Lipowitz (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
6) Roglic (Vuelta 2024 + TdF 2025)
7) Ayuso (Giro 2025 befoer DNFing + 1 week races in 2025)
8) Del Toro (Giro 2025)
9) Carapaz (Vuelta 2024 + Giro 2025)
10) Jorgensen (TdF 2024 + Paris Nice)

The first 5 are easy. 6-10 are almost interchangeable.

I could name 30 gc riders better than Jorgensen come on man

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I could name 30 gc riders better than Jorgensen come on man

Do it! I want all 30 names!

 

[Blanco]

1.Pogacar
2.Vingegaard
3-10. Roglic, Evenepoel, S.Yates, Almeida, Lipowitz, Del Toro, Ayuso