GC Power Ranking

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Uh yes, he would have. Did you not watch Isola? And did you notice he beat them both handily in a hilly TT?

Jorgenson's entire deficit to Landa is explained by the gap on PDB, where he gave a record-beating leadout to the GC group.

My dude, he lost time to Landa and Almeida on the climber's part of the TT (Col d'Eze) which did not include his mishap at the start. It proves little either way. Nobody is claiming Almeida to be definitely among the top 5 best. Yet for Jorgenson, apparently different rules apply. But again, the fact that we are having this discussion proves my point. Nobody is talking about a guy who has finished in the top 6 of a GT for the 3rd time now, he isn't even mentioned by people making top 15 lists. But Jorgenson is banging on the door of top 5. Sure thing.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Raising Arensman for discussion makes sense, I agree. IMO, Jorgensen has shown higher highs and broader capabilities but agree has not had the consistent run of results that Arensman has had. OTOH, Jorgensen is on the upswing and Arensman seems static. I don’t think many are arguing that Jorgenson is definitively number 5 ahead of Almeida, Landa, etc. though, just that he is in that range and, to use @Netserk ’s construct, if you simulated the Tour 100 times Jorgenson would be ahead of Landa, Almeida, some of the time (and behind some of the time) if they all rode for themselves. We’re all just speculating, though.

 

[proffate]

Sure thing boss.
My dude, he lost time to Landa and Almeida on the climber's part of the TT (Col d'Eze) which did not include his mishap at the start. It proves little either way. Nobody is claiming Almeida to be definitely among the top 5 best. Yet for Jorgenson, apparently different rules apply. But again, the fact that we are having this discussion proves my point. Nobody is talking about a guy who has finished in the top 6 of a GT for the 3rd time now, he isn't even mentioned by people making top 15 lists. But Jorgenson is banging on the door of top 5. Sure thing.

If you just want to look at past results then go stare at UCI points tables. A power ranking is about reading between the lines.

Actually, if you do want to look at just UCI rankings, Jorgenson is #11 in Stage Race World Ranking over the last 12 months to Arensman's 33rd.

Find another hill to die on.

Nobody is claiming Almeida to be definitely among the top 5 best.

Nobody claimed Jorgenson is "definitely" 5th best but everyone except Thymen's dad and you thinks he's better than Thymen.

edit: turns out one poster did say he was definitely 5th

 

[Netserk]

My dude, he lost time to Landa and Almeida on the climber's part of the TT (Col d'Eze) which did not include his mishap at the start.

The climber's part was Turbie, and despite his crash he was faster than Landa and Almeida there. At T2, including both uphill parts, he was also ahead of both.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Yeah...Jorgenson definitely after Roglic/Evenpoel. He beat Roglic badly on a one week SR, lost by seconds on another and beat Remco in both. Oh, and won some other races that weren't GTs with pure power.

In a week stage race sure, I’m talking about a GT. As of now Jorgenson isn’t ahead of either in a GT.

 

[Oldermanish]

In a weak stage race sure, I’m talking about a GT. As of now Jorgenson isn’t ahead of either in a GT.

Weak race or not; it's the only multi-day race he's been featured. After seeing him be the only one to bridge to Tadej, check back and drop off to get Jonas and then bridge back forcefully shows pedigree. Gotta wonder what those two could've done if left alone and Visma began controlling with them.
Probably be a different level of respect although Jonas had better respect Matteo. He kept him relevant for 3 weeks.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Weak race or not; it's the only multi-day race he's been featured. After seeing him be the only one to bridge to Tadej, check back and drop off to get Jonas and then bridge back forcefully shows pedigree. Gotta wonder what those two could've done if left alone and Visma began controlling with them.
Probably be a different level of respect although Jonas had better respect Matteo. He kept him relevant for 3 weeks.

I meant week stage race, not the Tour de France was weak.

I think Jorgenson can definitely move up and thought he could challenge for the podium this year if he had Visma’s sole leadership and the chips fell his way. If he didn’t have to support Vingegaard he’d have been fighting Almeida and Landa for 4th. But that doesn’t change that Almeida and Adam have shown they can do it over 3 weeks as a leader and Almeida was fighting for the win at the Giro last year. Almeida has also shown he can be strong during a double, he just gets sick a lot.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Find another hill to die on.

But i have so much to live for!

If you can't see the discrepancy between how two riders are rated, one not even mentioned at all in the discussion for the top 10 (3rd time GT top 6), and the other supposedly borderline top 5 (first time GT top 8) then i don't know what else to tell you. Either one is underrated, or the other is overrated. Or both.

 

[Berniece]

But i have so much to live for!

If you can't see the discrepancy between how two riders are rated, one not even mentioned at all in the discussion for the top 10 (3rd time GT top 6), and the other supposedly borderline top 5 (first time GT top 8) then i don't know what else to tell you. Either one is underrated, or the other is overrated. Or both.

Arensman rode well in Giro and Vuelta, not really comparable to the hardest GT ever. Not to mention that Jorgensen is growing in this role as a rider. There is a case to be made about first seeing if Jorgensen can be consistent and perform multiple GT’s like this, but time will tell. For me at the moment I expect Jorgensen to be better since I haven’t really seen much progress with Arensman anyway. Like Netserk said, I doubt he would’ve finished in the top 10.

 

[ppanther92]

1. Pogacar/Vingegaard (yes, in GT GCs I still see him on an equal level - hope both go in their best shape into next year's Tour - want to have an answer).

Gap

3. Evenepoel

Gap

4. Roglic (benefit of doubt for somehow better keeping up than the rest till he crashed out, although he was on the limit to lose time on multiple occasions).
5. Almeida, Yates, Rodriguez (simply because the Tour is a level above other GTs)

Rest (Landa - potentially has to be included above, Thomas, Martinez, Jorgenson, Gee, Mas, Carapaz, Hindley, Ayuso, ...)

 

[Bolder]

In a week stage race sure, I’m talking about a GT. As of now Jorgenson isn’t ahead of either in a GT.

Will be very interested in whether Jorgenson gets the go ahead to train specifically for a GT. He sure looks like a podium threat in tt heavy course.

 

[Netserk]

Will be very interested in whether Jorgenson gets the go ahead to train specifically for a GT. He sure looks like a podium threat in tt heavy course.

I think he did so this year already.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Arensman rode well in Giro and Vuelta, not really comparable to the hardest GT ever. Not to mention that Jorgensen is growing in this role as a rider. There is a case to be made about first seeing if Jorgensen can be consistent and perform multiple GT’s like this, but time will tell. For me at the moment I expect Jorgensen to be better since I haven’t really seen much progress with Arensman anyway. Like Netserk said, I doubt he would’ve finished in the top 10.

I think he could well have beaten Buitrago and Ciccone. I'd actually say quite likely. Especially since he usually starts his GT's slow and needs to grow into them. And it was never my intention to claim he 'd have been better than Jorgenson. Just to point out the discrepancy between how they are perceived in light of their achievements.

 

[Brullnux]

Maybe if Arensman is up there in a third week TDF TT, or goes in a break and drops multiple GT winners on the final climb, or wins a 2.WT race, people will get excited about him.

And don't try to pretend that 6th at the Giro is remotely close to top 10 at the tour.

In fairness the top ten below Jorgenson is not much better than the Giro top 6. I feel Ciccone and Buitrago would've been around Arensman for sure; Gee, who knows. Might be a fluke, or he might win the Giro next year.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

2024 is in the books. Let the debate begin. Honestly gets very tough after the top 4.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Roglic
4. Remco

<Hopeless gap>

Removed because others made good points and I’m not sure i got mine right.

 

[Roku]

1-4 rather clear, i would maybe swap Roglic with Remco.

Other than that, it's probably Almeida and Ayuso on the next tier.

Then it would be G. Thomas, Yates, Landa, C.Rodriguez and O'Connor with Carapaz and Hindley as question marks after two disappointing seasons.

At his age and history, Mas is just a great Vuelta specialist. No place in a Grand Tour GC Power ranking outside that race.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I would actually put Evenepoel ahead of Roglic, before the latter crashed out of the Tour the former was the stronger on San Luca, Galibier, the gravel sectors and in the TT, with the two of them equal only in Le Lioran.

As always, GT-only ranking:

5) Almeida (this one is pretty clear, IMO)
6) Mas (him, DFM and Ayuso are definitely the hardest to rank for me)
7) Landa
8) DFM
9) Ayuso
10) Carapaz
11) O'Connor (a power ranking is a predictive ranking of who would do best if everyone started an average-route GT in usual form right now, not a ranking of best performances this year - if anything 11th feels a bit high)
12) Thomas
13) Rodriguez
14) A Yates
15) Tiberi
16) Jorgenson
17) Hindley
18) S Yates
19) TGH
20) Gaudu

 

[Squire]

1-4 rather clear, i would maybe swap Roglic with Remco.

Other than that, it's probably Almeida and Ayuso on the next tier.

Then it would be G. Thomas, Yates, Landa, C.Rodriguez and O'Connor with Carapaz and Hindley as question marks after two disappointing seasons.

At his age and history, Mas is just a great Vuelta specialist. No place in a Grand Tour GC Power ranking outside that race.

Agree with all of this, except I would put Mas in the tier 3 group as well. Thomas is as much of a Giro specialist these days as Mas is a Vuelta specialist.

Also, if O'Connor and Thomas is there, I'd argue that a Martinez in top shape deserves to be there too. But he's very unreliable. And if he didn't get heat stroke, I'm pretty certain Tiberi would have put himself in that group too by now. Looking forward to what he can do next year. We need some Italian GT contenders.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I would actually put Evenepoel ahead of Roglic, before the latter crashed out of the Tour the former was the stronger on San Luca, Galibier, the gravel sectors and in the TT, with the two of them equal only in Le Lioran.

As always, GT-only ranking:

5) Almeida (this one is pretty clear, IMO)
6) Mas (him, DFM and Ayuso are definitely the hardest to rank for me)
7) Landa
8) DFM
9) Ayuso
10) Carapaz
11) O'Connor (a power ranking is a predictive ranking of who would do best if everyone started an average-route GT in usual form right now, not a ranking of best performances this year - if anything 11th feels a bit high)
12) Thomas
13) Rodriguez
14) A Yates
15) Tiberi
16) Jorgenson
17) Hindley
18) S Yates
19) TGH
20) Gaudu

I 100% agree, but getting 2nd and 4th indicates he’s a good bet to finish high, no? He isn’t afraid to go for it, unlike some. That often makes him blow up, but also has earned him some nice results.

I can get on board with keeping Ayuso in top 10 due to his age and known issues this year.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I 100% agree, but getting 2nd and 4th indicates he’s a good bet to finish high, no? He isn’t afraid to go for it, unlike some. That often makes him blow up, but also has earned him some nice results.

I can get on board with keeping Ayuso in top 10 due to his age and known issues this year.

4th in the Giro was in a really poor field - he beat Tiberi by less than the time Tiberi lost due to his stage 2 mechanical, and Tiberi definitely isn't top-10 material at this stage, plus the next guys were Arensman, Rubio and Hirt who I wouldn't even consider for a top-20. In this Vuelta, while both his solo his defence after taking red shouldn't be discounted, a GC where you scrap the results of stage 6 does put him behind Skjelmose and Gaudu. The chances of him ever putting up this good a year results-wise in the GTs again are probably even slimmer than they were for Kuss this time last year, and we've all seen how that's gone down.

 

[Bolder]

I would actually put Evenepoel ahead of Roglic, before the latter crashed out of the Tour the former was the stronger on San Luca, Galibier, the gravel sectors and in the TT, with the two of them equal only in Le Lioran.

As always, GT-only ranking:

5) Almeida (this one is pretty clear, IMO)
6) Mas (him, DFM and Ayuso are definitely the hardest to rank for me)
7) Landa
8) DFM
9) Ayuso
10) Carapaz
11) O'Connor (a power ranking is a predictive ranking of who would do best if everyone started an average-route GT in usual form right now, not a ranking of best performances this year - if anything 11th feels a bit high)
12) Thomas
13) Rodriguez
14) A Yates
15) Tiberi
16) Jorgenson
17) Hindley
18) S Yates
19) TGH
20) Gaudu

Using your criteria -- who would do best if everyone started an average GT route in usual form -- I'm pretty close to this ranking, although I'd move up C-Rod and A. Yates and move down Carapaz and Landa. I agree that Almeida has emerged as a solid No. 5 and has some separation between him and Mas.

If we're taking into consideration "who is the best in this snapshot in time after the last 3 GTs" that's a whole different ranking. In that case, you'd have to put O'Connor in top 6, which just doesn't feel right to me.

Edit to add: Recent results in GTs prove the truth of the adage that 90% of success is just showing up and finishing the task...and also, just how hard it is to show up in decent shape and finish a GT without incident.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

4th in the Giro was in a really poor field - he beat Tiberi by less than the time Tiberi lost due to his stage 2 mechanical, and Tiberi definitely isn't top-10 material at this stage, plus the next guys were Arensman, Rubio and Hirt who I wouldn't even consider for a top-20. In this Vuelta, while both his solo his defence after taking red shouldn't be discounted, a GC where you scrap the results of stage 6 does put him behind Skjelmose and Gaudu. The chances of him ever putting up this good a year results-wise in the GTs again are probably even slimmer than they were for Kuss this time last year, and we've all seen how that's gone down.

I hear where you’re coming from. It’s also complicated by the fact that the next tier of GC contenders, aside from Mas, work for other riders (aside from Ayuso, who was supposed to do that and refused). If everyone rode for himself, I think A Yates needs to be higher.

 

[Netserk]

O'Connor doesn’t make the top-15, maybe not even top-20.

 

[Luthor]

Roglic and Evenepoel have their own tier with Remco ahead. There's no real top5 because the fifth is very hard to determine. Almeida maybe but he struggled a lot when riding for himself. Mas was probably better than Almeida in this Vuelta. As for Yates brothers they are kinda disappointing given their potential.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I want to wait till after the Vuelta for a completely updated list.
GT
1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3rd. Roglic/Eveneloel
5th Almeida
6th Adam
After that it can be a toss up with everyone else but I think I’d drop Mas, Thomas, and Hindley lower. But this can change after the Vuelta. Once past the big 4 it could be anyones chance to win but I think Almeida has improved even more.

GTs
1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard

3. Roglic/Evenepoel

5. Almeida

6. Landa/Adam
7. Mas/Carapaz/Hindley/Jorgenson/C Rod/Ayuso/TGH/Thomas/Simon
16. Skjelmose/Cian/Kuss/Vlasov/The rest

Pogacar and Vingegaard are undisputed one and two. Then we have a gap to Roglic and Evenepoel who are even and with their own ups and downs. Then another gap to Almeida who has progressed every year and is a solid all rounder who knows how to ride within himself, he just gets sick a lot. Then a smaller gap due to Almeida being a better all arounder to Landa and Adam. After that it’s a free for all depending on the route and race for 7-15 but I think those are a little better than 16 down but that could change next year.


For week stage racing I’d have:
1. Pogacar
2. Roglic
3. Vingegaard
4. Evenepoel
5. Jorgenson/Skjelmose/Almeida/Adam/Vlasov/Ayuso
11. The rest