GC Power Ranking

[Devil's Elbow]

I think at this point Adam Yates below Carapaz, Mas, Rodriguez and Almeida is pretty hard to argue.

The argument is very simple.

If him podiuming the Tour after six straight seasons of underwhelming GTs is because he's turned a corner (like Di Luca 2005) -> definitely top-10 and thereby ahead of Carapaz et al
If him podiuming the Tour after six straight seasons of underwhelming GTs is because it's an outlier (like Porte 2016/20) -> definitely not top-10 and thereby behind Carapaz et al

Much like everyone else, I have no way of knowing which of these is the case, but if I'm leaning towards the latter, I can't really put him above those four, can I?

 

[dercuforever]

After 2023'GTs :
1 Vingegaard.
2. Pogacar (I hope he improves again like he did in from 21 to 22)

3. Roglic (more reliable, even when he falls)
4. Remco (have faith)
5. Hindley (if low ITT amount)

6. Kuss (newly motivated and confident)
7. Ayuso
8. Thomas
9. A. Yates
10. Mas

Could argue for Carapaz, Landa, Hart, Rodriguez or even Almeida and S. Yates to be there from 8 to 10.

 

[yaco]

S.Yates last two completed GT's are third in the Giro and fourth in the TDF - Struggling to see hoe he is rated below Ayuso and Thomas is also behind Ayuso - Strange !

 

[dercuforever]

S.Yates last two completed GT's are third in the Giro and fourth in the TDF - Struggling to see hoe he is rated below Ayuso and Thomas is also behind Ayuso - Strange !

Thomas is getting old, I doubt his physical strength and motivation to remain at the same level. however if it does, I'd rank him 5th after Remco.
S.Yates seems to me below his brother and Ayuso with a crap preparation still was 4th in the Vuelta.
Those ranking also have some subjectivity.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Power ranking mostly based on achievements in GTs and seven big 1-week races this year (and level in case achievements are close).

1. Vingegaard: 1st Tour, 2nd Vuelta, 1st Basque, 1st Dauphine - easy, the best in both achievements and level
2. Roglic: 1st Giro, 3rd Vuelta, 1st Catalunya, 1st Tirreno - again easy due to achievements
3. Pogacar: 2nd Tour, 1st Paris-Nice - didn't race much GC this year and focused on one-day races more, in terms of level I would put him in top2 though.
4. Kuss: 1st Vuelta - can't put a GT winner lower, regardless of team tactics he displayed a high level at the Vuelta anyway.
5. A. Yates: 3rd Tour, 1st Romandie, 2nd Duaphine - best year of his career GC wise?
6. Thomas: 2nd Giro - only Giro was successful but strong showing there, lost victory in the last km of the TT.
7. Evenepoel: 2nd Catalunya, 3rd Suisse, 5 stages in GTs (but failed GC-wise), harder to judge due to no GT high placing but world-class level in parts of those GTs
8. Almeida: 3rd Giro, 2nd Tirreno, 3rd Catalunya - consistent as always
9. Ayuso: 4th Vuelta, 2nd Suisse - despite some setbacks still a decent Vuelta and Suisse showings
10. Landa: 5th Vuelta, 2nd Basque (could be S. Yates or Mas here as well).

 

[CyclistAbi]

1. Roglic
2. Roglic’ wife
3. Roglic’ older son
4. Roglic’ younger son
5. Roglic’ mum
6. Roglic’ dad
7. Roglic’ neighbour
8. Roglic’ other neighbour
9. Roglic’ barber
10. Roglic’ biggest fan (so myself)

Wait, my bad, wrong account.

C'mon it's not really that bad.

P.S. Is it?

 

[CyclistAbi]

What’s your post-Tour top 10?

In this thread it's more about the range of the gun and on how massive the explosion is when it reaches the destination. So i have them set in tiers.

First tier are the top guns. Three of them. Then it's the rest. I could likely go that extra mile and to set the other names in two more tiers. That is if we are talking roughly about ten riders in the peloton. But i won't do that. The rest know they are currently not top guns and that should be more then enough.

 

[Red Rick]

The argument is very simple.

If him podiuming the Tour after six straight seasons of underwhelming GTs is because he's turned a corner (like Di Luca 2005) -> definitely top-10 and thereby ahead of Carapaz et al
If him podiuming the Tour after six straight seasons of underwhelming GTs is because it's an outlier (like Porte 2016/20) -> definitely not top-10 and thereby behind Carapaz et al

Much like everyone else, I have no way of knowing which of these is the case, but if I'm leaning towards the latter, I can't really put him above those four, can I?

While I'm not too keen on using 1 weekers heavily in this ranking, I do think they can be a good indication that a rider has been at a higher level all season, and therefor his GT result is unlikelier to be a fluke.

What I do feel we're missing is that echelon that would be outsiders/podium threats for GTs that could win while they are solid bets for top 5. It's super calcified right now. The top 3 seem are in solid order but they're untouchable by anyone else because they're the 3 best at climbing and basically ITTing as well bar Evenepoel. There's no pure climber that's a threat that on his day can beat everyone else while dropping time with a bad time trial. There's no 2015 Landa and Aru. There's no 2013 Rodriguez, there's no 2012 Wiggins who was still somewhat suss as a climber, etc.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

While I'm not too keen on using 1 weekers heavily in this ranking, I do think they can be a good indication that a rider has been at a higher level all season, and therefor his GT result is unlikelier to be a fluke.

Did he really show a new level in the one-weekers, though?

He dropped Evenepoel (by a small margin) on Jebel Hafeet in the UAE Tour, but was that really more impressive than climbing with Pogacar in 2022 and 2021 and demolishing him in 2020 on the same climb?

He bombed in Tirreno and Catalunya.

He won Romandie, but that was against Jorgenson, Caruso, Poole and Pinot. Don't think that was better than his Catalunya win in 2021 over Thomas, Porte and Valverde.

He was best of the rest in Dauphiné, but miles down on Vingegaard and only just ahead of O'Connor and non-one week race specialist Hindley. He's been best of the rest before... for example in Tirreno 2019, where he lost to Roglic by a single second. Or in the aforementioned UAE Tours. Or in Itzulia 2021, where only Roglic, Vingegaard and Pogacar beat him and he was still closer to the winner than at that Dauphiné. All races where he was a lot closer to the best.

So I think he was more or less at his usual level in the one-week races. Yes, he's had a lot of big results, but that mainly has to do with doing five WT one-weekers when he's never started more than four or finished more than three in the same season before (aside from his first season as a pro which really isn't representative for this). And even then he's run basically equal to his 2021 season, where he had fewer opportunities. That year, he also did a good GT by his standards - fourth in the Vuelta, just behind Jack Haig. That's the GT level that he's been associated with for most of his career, and it's not a history that should be completely ignored.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I agree with the top 4 in that order from the OP. After them it’s a lot more open on how GT, stage race, and placings are rated by the member. I think over the last three years someone like Almeida has progressed significantly in GT and stage racing though Hindley or Carapaz for example have a higher GT ceiling due to winning.

Based on how they would do in both GT and stage racing I think I would have:
1. Vinge
2. Pog
3. Roglic
4. Evenepoel
5. Hindley
6. Almeida
7. Adam
8. Thomas
9. Mas
10. Rodriquez

If it’s just GTs we are talking about I’d have Thomas higher and Carapaz on the list but it’s hard to say if Thomas can keep reaching that level again and again. Sooner or later age will catch up.

Was my pre Vuelta list and a mix of week and GT.

Post Vuelta
For GTs;
1. Vingegaard

2. Pogacar

3. Roglic

4. Thomas
5. Evenepoel

6. Almeida
7. Hindley
8. Adam
9. Mas
10. Rodriquez

One week;
1. Pogacar

2. Rolgic
3. Vingegaard

4. Evenepoel

5. Almeida
6. A. Yates
7. Ayuso
8. Skjelmose
9. S. Yates
10. Mas


After the top 5 for GTs and top 4 for stage races it all comes down to personal preference. I think Almeida and Mas get underrated by most but you could have any of the next tier rider in these spots and have a good argument for it.

 

[Netserk]

Everyone and their dom went to the Tour this year, but surely some with an eye for the Vuelta. That and widespread illness make it difficult to judge the lower places. I'm only ready to defend my top-6.

1. Pogačar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Roglič
5. Yates, A.
6. Kuss
7. Almeida
8. Landa
9. Jorgenson
10. Rodríguez
11. Ayuso
12. Hindley
13. Yates, S.
14. Carapaz
15. Mas

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

C'mon it's not really that bad.

P.S. Is it?

No it's not that bad. Devil's Elbow always has to exagerate. I've seen Roglic' barber and i'm fully convinced you can beat him.

 

[red_flanders]

Everyone and their dom went to the Tour this year, but surely some with an eye for the Vuelta. That and widespread illness make it difficult to judge the lower places. I'm only ready to defend my top-6.

1. Pogačar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Roglič
5. Yates, A.
6. Kuss
7. Almeida
8. Landa
9. Jorgenson
10. Rodríguez
11. Ayuso
12. Hindley
13. Yates, S.
14. Carapaz
15. Mas

I think reasonable to limit it in that way, once you get a way down the list it becomes really muddy. I’m not sure what the criteria have been for these lists, but if we’re saying who looks good now and can really do damage in the future, I’d maybe want Jorgenson higher.

I would rate MJ higher than Almeida. I’d have Almeida after Landa and Jorgenson. He’s done more in the past but to me has a lower ceiling than either Landa or Jorgenson. I might even rate MJ higher than Landa moving forward.

 

[Netserk]

My ranking is not meant as a forecast for next year. It's an evaluation of their relative strength now (if this season were to be simulated countless times).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think reasonable to limit it in that way, once you get a way down the list it becomes really muddy. I’m not sure what the criteria have been for these lists, but if we’re saying who looks good now and can really do damage in the future, I’d maybe want Jorgenson higher.

I would rate MJ higher than Almeida. I’d have Almeida after Landa and Jorgenson. He’s done more in the past but to me has a lower ceiling than either Landa or Jorgenson. I might even rate MJ higher than Landa moving forward.

Moving forward... Landa is 34.

I think Jorgenson tends to be overrated based on PN and Dauphiné, generally by Americans, not just on this forum. According to experts on the move he was a lock for the white jersey. Almeida podiumed the Giro and had to work for Pogacar this month just like Jorgenson for Vingegaard. Jorgenson is 1.90 and the only other successful GC guy of that size i can think of, is Wiggins. Imho Almeida made a very good impression this Tour.

If you want to look forward, Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks, Tiberi... all have a good chance of leapfrogging him as they are all 2-4 years younger. And more is on the way.

 

[CyclistAbi]

No it's not that bad. Devil's Elbow always has to exagerate. I've seen Roglic' barber and i'm fully convinced you can beat him.

I have seen some of you being happy, either for Rogla to abandon the Tour or for your favourite to get a chance. But lets not forget GT season is not over yet and lets see on who the 2024 season GT winners will be. It's to early to say.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I have seen some of you being happy, either for Rogla to abandon the Tour or for your favourite to get a chance. But lets not forget GT season is not over yet and lets see on who the 2024 season GT winners will be. It's to early to say.

It's true i set off an entire New Year's Eve supply worth of fireworks.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Everyone and their dom went to the Tour this year, but surely some with an eye for the Vuelta. That and widespread illness make it difficult to judge the lower places. I'm only ready to defend my top-6.

1. Pogačar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Roglič
5. Yates, A.
6. Kuss
7. Almeida
8. Landa
9. Jorgenson
10. Rodríguez
11. Ayuso
12. Hindley
13. Yates, S.
14. Carapaz
15. Mas

Why is Kuss 6th? He's done s**t this year, unless you treat is as a kinda 52-week power ranking. I would definitely put Jorgenson higher. He won PN and was 2nd in the Dauphine (barely losing), those are big stage-racing results.

 

[BigCoward]

Everyone and their dom went to the Tour this year, but surely some with an eye for the Vuelta. That and widespread illness make it difficult to judge the lower places. I'm only ready to defend my top-6.

1. Pogačar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Roglič
5. Yates, A.
6. Kuss
7. Almeida
8. Landa
9. Jorgenson
10. Rodríguez
11. Ayuso
12. Hindley
13. Yates, S.
14. Carapaz
15. Mas

Why are people who finished 10 mins down at the Giro below people who finished 30 mins down at the tour?

 

[Netserk]

Why is Kuss 6th? He's done s**t this year, unless you treat is as a kinda 52-week power ranking. I would definitely put Jorgenson higher. He won PN and was 2nd in the Dauphine (barely losing), those are big stage-racing results.

For the same reason Rogla is in 4th. If you simulate this season multiple times, I'd favour Kuss over Landa in the Tour. As for Jorgenson, he has been mighty impressive, but I'm not sure he'd beat Almeida and Landa in the Tour in a similar role most times.

Why are people who finished 10 mins down at the Giro below people who finished 30 mins down at the tour?

Pogi was far better in the Tour. Very low level in the Giro this year.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For the same reason Rogla is in 4th. If you simulate this season multiple times, I'd favour Kuss over Landa in the Tour. As for Jorgenson, he has been mighty impressive, but I'm not sure he'd beat Almeida and Landa in the Tour in a similar role most times.

Ok I get it now but I still highly doubt Kuss because he showed absolutely zero signs of form this year, possibly a burnout after the last season.

 

[red_flanders]

Moving forward... Landa is 34.

I think Jorgenson tends to be overrated based on PN and Dauphiné, generally by Americans, not just on this forum. According to experts on the move he was a lock for the white jersey. Almeida podiumed the Giro and had to work for Pogacar this month just like Jorgenson for Vingegaard. Jorgenson is 1.90 and the only other successful GC guy of that size i can think of, is Wiggins. Imho Almeida made a very good impression this Tour.

If you want to look forward, Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks, Tiberi... all have a good chance of leapfrogging him as they are all 2-4 years younger. And more is on the way.

I'm looking at what he did in this Tour. I was extremely impressed, he's had a great year. Ayuso is limited by being a head case. Uijtebroeks, sure, whenever he shows that level I'm on board. Tiberi...who?

When I say the future I'm looking at who is performing at a super high level now, and how does that person project. Good arguments can be made for other riders, but dismissing this as American bias...not a strong argument even if it's true in the media. His performance all race was impressive as heck, and to do what he did in the final TT was outstanding.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Jorgenson is easily top-10 for one-week stage races and nowhere near for GTs.

Aside from that, this is probably the worst year for constructing power rankings because almost everyone has had injury and/or illness issues at bad moments. 1) Pogacar, 2) Vingegaard, 3) Evenepoel and 4) Roglic is extremely obvious, behind them you might as well draw cards at random because none of the options can be judged reliably, nor are any of them particularly appealing and all of them would probably still lose to Pogacar if they were allowed to use an e-bike.

Why are people who finished 10 mins down at the Giro below people who finished 30 mins down at the tour?

Because Pogacar was mostly riding within himself at the Giro, then dropping the craziest watts of all time at the Tour. Hence why Jan freaking Hirt finished closer to Pogacar at the Giro than everyone but Vingegaard and Evenepoel did at the Tour. DFM at his Giro level finishes at least 20 and probably closer to 30 minutes down too, and that was by far his best-ever GT which at his age doesn't help him in this kind of ranking.

 

[Red Rick]

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard

3-4 Evenepoel-Roglic. I don't think one TdF where Roglic crashes out after slowly finding form is enough to conclusively state Evenepoel is clearly better

5-7. Landa, Almeida, and Adam Yates if I'm gonna be generous. I don't feel confident putting anyone from the Giro lot in there

8+. Who cares. 3rd tier GC riders are a dying breed. They're all becoming failed stagehunters, domestiques or Giro/Vuelta 7th place contenders

 

[BigCoward]

I just find it weird that Thomas was 3rd in tour 2 years ago, closer to big 2 than anyone this year,

2nd to roglic by seconds last year at the Giro and 3rd this year 10 mins down on Pog is basically below a bunch of people who have literally achieved nothing of note in a grand tour.

He's old but he's better than a lot on that list until he isn't.