GC Power Ranking

[Netserk]

Jorgenson is easily top-10 for one-week stage races and nowhere near for GTs.

I think this is swinging way too hard in the other direction. He crashed on stage 2 and I think that easily explains his subpar Galibier performance, and he did more work as a pure helper than anyone else in GC. He did well on all four HC MTFs, but emptying the tank for Vingegaard on Beille and pulling hard in the break all day before Isola 2000 mask his climbing form.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Jorgenson was AT LEAST the 6th strongest rider in the race. At Netserk points out, he was doing lots and lots of donkey work that Almeida and Landa didn't have to do at all, also for Wout on stage 1 and 13. He was very visible at the front on flat stages with echelons and was often found in front. He was exceptional on the gravel, he was the 4th best (by far) yesterday in the TT where he prolly lost 15 seconds in the crash. His Beille pull was great, he was the best from the break in Isola and was STILL doing +6 w/kg after Bonette in the break for 40 minutes. He crashed before Galibier and was whatever, every rider not name Pog and Vingegaard would have lost time there.

Jorgenson is the real deal. Incredibly strong in all terrains, insane versaility and by far the best domestique in the race. If Jorgy had Almeida or Landa's role, he's easily 6th and I would even go as far as to say 4th-5th.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Jorgenson is the real deal. Incredibly strong in all terrains, insane versaility and by far the best domestique in the race. If Jorgy had Almeida or Landa's role, he's easily 6th and I would even go as far as to say 4th-5th.

Jorgenson is one of the best cyclists in the world already (regarding abilities in various kind of races). I think he can still improve: he's young and joined Visma only this year.

 

[hayneplane]

I just find it weird that Thomas was 3rd in tour 2 years ago, closer to big 2 than anyone this year,

2nd to roglic by seconds last year at the Giro and 3rd this year 10 mins down on Pog is basically below a bunch of people who have literally achieved nothing of note in a grand tour.

He's old but he's better than a lot on that list until he isn't.

Agreed. Nowadays he is only good good for the one race in the season that he hyper peaks for but he is still more reliable for a top 5 in this race than most of those outside the top 4 guys.

As for the others I fancy Hindley more than the rest to get a sneaky big ride in the Vuelta which looks likely to be depleted of the elite tier of GC riders this year.

 

[No Excuses]

Emperor Pog
....
rest

 

[SHAD0W93]

Based on how they would do in both GT and stage racing I think I would have:
1. Vinge
2. Pog
3. Roglic
4. Evenepoel
5. Hindley
6. Almeida
7. Adam
8. Thomas
9. Mas
10. Rodriquez

If it’s just GTs we are talking about I’d have Thomas higher and Carapaz on the list but it’s hard to say if Thomas can keep reaching that level again and again. Sooner or later age will catch up.

I want to wait till after the Vuelta for a completely updated list.
GT
1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3rd. Roglic/Eveneloel
5th Almeida
6th Adam
After that it can be a toss up with everyone else but I think I’d drop Mas, Thomas, and Hindley lower. But this can change after the Vuelta. Once past the big 4 it could be anyones chance to win but I think Almeida has improved even more.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

If Jorgenson had been a couple of minutes closer going into stage 19 thanks to no crash on stage 2 and/or less domestique duty, Ineos would have worked to pull him back or at least keep him at bay. There is no shot he beats Landa and Almeida, and Yates did plenty of donkey work too (+ was third last year, which is recent enough to matter for a power ranking). For Rodriguez, you can argue either way who’s better - I will say he would have been fourth last year without his crash and that the extent to which he faded in the final week was rather uncharacteristic and therefore not fully representative of his level, and prior to that he had simply been the better of the two.

So that’s 6 riders that should and 1 rider that could be ahead of him, and then you have Roglic (obviously), Kuss (anyone who’s most recent GT is a win is easily in the top-10 for GTs), Ayuso (based on his Galibier level, finishes 5+ minutes ahead of Jorgenson without contracting COVID so long as he doesn’t fade like Rodriguez + had a top-10 level trackrecord going in to begin with) who are all clearly ahead of him, and then in addition to Rodriguez the likes of Mas (how heavily do you weigh his Vueltas?), Martinez, Thomas, and everyone who hasn’t been able to do a GT GC of late due to circumstances beyond their control (Carapaz, Hart, Hindley) where you need to put him ahead of the lot based on one eighth place at the Tour and *** all else.

Heck, Felix Gall finished eighth last year off the back of a more impressive third week and nobody was arguing he should be in the top-10. Has everyone else become that much worse in 12 months, or is Jorgenson’s eighth place being overrated that strongly?

 

[Netserk]

For Rodriguez, you can argue either way who’s better - I will say he would have been fourth last year without his crash and that the extent to which he faded in the final week was rather uncharacteristic and therefore not fully representative of his level, and prior to that he had simply been the better of the two.

Those two were my 9th (Jorgenson) and 10th (Rodríguez), and I don't think it's a coincidence that a handful of riders became stronger after Pla d'Adet and the rest didn't. Jorgenson became stronger. He was also better in Dauphiné, much better on gravel and in the ITTs.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Everyone and their dom went to the Tour this year, but surely some with an eye for the Vuelta. That and widespread illness make it difficult to judge the lower places. I'm only ready to defend my top-6.

1. Pogačar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Roglič
5. Yates, A.
6. Kuss
7. Almeida
8. Landa
9. Jorgenson
10. Rodríguez
11. Ayuso
12. Hindley
13. Yates, S.
14. Carapaz
15. Mas

Solid take.

Jorgenson is easily top-10 for one-week stage races and nowhere near for GTs.

Aside from that, this is probably the worst year for constructing power rankings because almost everyone has had injury and/or illness issues at bad moments. 1) Pogacar, 2) Vingegaard, 3) Evenepoel and 4) Roglic is extremely obvious, behind them you might as well draw cards at random because none of the options can be judged reliably, nor are any of them particularly appealing and all of them would probably still lose to Pogacar if they were allowed to use an e-bike.


Because Pogacar was mostly riding within himself at the Giro, then dropping the craziest watts of all time at the Tour. Hence why Jan freaking Hirt finished closer to Pogacar at the Giro than everyone but Vingegaard and Evenepoel did at the Tour. DFM at his Giro level finishes at least 20 and probably closer to 30 minutes down too, and that was by far his best-ever GT which at his age doesn't help him in this kind of ranking.

How do you reconcile this with the fact that he was 8th in a stacked Tour as a helper? Even if you add in Martinez, G, Roglic, and Kuss that puts him at 12th. I’d say he’s solidly top 10 with ability to be top 5 with team support.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard

3-4 Evenepoel-Roglic. I don't think one TdF where Roglic crashes out after slowly finding form is enough to conclusively state Evenepoel is clearly better

5-7. Landa, Almeida, and Adam Yates if I'm gonna be generous. I don't feel confident putting anyone from the Giro lot in there

8+. Who cares. 3rd tier GC riders are a dying breed. They're all becoming failed stagehunters, domestiques or Giro/Vuelta 7th place contenders

I agree with this but I’d put Jorgenson in with the 5-7 group.

I want to wait till after the Vuelta for a completely updated list.
GT
1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3rd. Roglic/Eveneloel
5th Almeida
6th Adam
After that it can be a toss up with everyone else but I think I’d drop Mas, Thomas, and Hindley lower. But this can change after the Vuelta. Once past the big 4 it could be anyones chance to win but I think Almeida has improved even more.

Lots of great takes that I mostly agree with. Like @SHAD0W93 I want to see what the Vuelta brings before making a full list, but my two cents:

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Remco / Roglic
4. 
   
5. Jorgenson / A Yates / Almeida / Landa
6. 
   
7. 
   
8. 
   
9. Martinez / G / Kuss

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

In a separate comment, tough year so far for several who formerly were in that 5-10 spot or seemed likely to get there soon: Jai Hindley, Tao Geogenhart, Sepp Kuss (I have him the benefit of the Covid, being American), Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, Jay Vine.

On a separate note, I’m looking forward to Del Toro joining the party after the Vuelta.

 

[Brullnux]

I just find it weird that Thomas was 3rd in tour 2 years ago, closer to big 2 than anyone this year,

2nd to roglic by seconds last year at the Giro and 3rd this year 10 mins down on Pog is basically below a bunch of people who have literally achieved nothing of note in a grand tour.

He's old but he's better than a lot on that list until he isn't.

He seemed really off the pace at this year's Giro, and without Tiberi's early mechanical might well have finished below him. At the end of last year he was 4th/5th in my eyes, now he is very much not.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

In a separate comment, tough year so far for several who formerly were in that 5-10 spot or seemed likely to get there soon: Jai Hindley, Tao Geogenhart, Sepp Kuss (I have him the benefit of the Covid, being American), Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, Jay Vine.

On a separate note, I’m looking forward to Del Toro joining the party after the Vuelta.

What exactly has Vine ever done to get that spot? I honestly had to look up his results. His best GT is 34th. He won the TDU. Never top 10'd any WT stagerace other than that... Podium in Norway and Turkey (2nd), and an 8th place in Burgos. Bro gets smoked by guys like Skjelmose, Van Wilder, McNulty... and it's not even remotely close. You could even make a good case for Pidcock having better GC results.

 

[houtdffan]

Rog routinely crashes out of grand tours. This year's TDF is not a fluke, it is the normal

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

What exactly has Vine ever done to get that spot? I honestly had to look up his results. His best GT is 34th. He won the TDU. Never top 10'd any WT stagerace other than that... Podium in Norway and Turkey (2nd), and an 8th place in Burgos. Bro gets smoked by guys like Skjelmose, Van Wilder, McNulty... and it's not even remotely close. You could even make a good case for Pidcock having better GC results.

Yeah his inclusion was a stretch but I thought he warranted a mention based on the gap between his 2022 Vuelta climbing and everything we’ve seen from him since.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Rog routinely crashes out of grand tours. This year's TDF is not a fluke, it is the normal

To be fair, it’s 50/50.

(2017, 2018, 2020 / 2021, 2022, 2024). I can’t deny the trend tho.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah his inclusion was a stretch but I thought he warranted a mention based on the gap between his 2022 Vuelta climbing and everything we’ve seen from him since.

He went stagehunting then and picked his stages. In the second half of the Vuelta he faded badly and got dropped by the likes of Brenner, Gesbert, Arensman, Polanc etc... from the break. Imho someone like Healy has shown more potential to turn into a GC rider so far.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Rogla
Pogi
Jonas
Remco

This is on how i currently have them, the rest of the riders currently out of big 4. Remco did a strong Tour and finished on the podium, so he belongs in big 4 group. Jonas less convincing this year, due to the injuries, still pushing one of his best numbers. Pogi has to be ahead due to the GT double. Rogla still at the top, due to switching to a team currently the weakest in support of their leader and despite that Rogla still fighting with the best. This will only get better and better for Rogla with each race they enter. They already went from struggling at the first week long stage rage, to winning a prestigious ITT in second, before favourites abandoning to winning a prestigious week long stage race with tough competition. First GT they did, started a bit on a back foot, then already bullish trend started to appear, next GT likely already finishing much higher. So all in all others peaked and Rogla only at the beginning, still up there, with greatest potential to grow.

 

[Oldermanish]

I want to wait till after the Vuelta for a completely updated list.
GT
1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3rd. Roglic/Eveneloel
5th Almeida
6th Adam
After that it can be a toss up with everyone else but I think I’d drop Mas, Thomas, and Hindley lower. But this can change after the Vuelta. Once past the big 4 it could be anyones chance to win but I think Almeida has improved even more.

Yeah...Jorgenson definitely after Roglic/Evenpoel. He beat Roglic badly on a one week SR, lost by seconds on another and beat Remco in both. Oh, and won some other races that weren't GTs with pure power.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

How do you reconcile this with the fact that he was 8th in a stacked Tour as a helper? Even if you add in Martinez, G, Roglic, and Kuss that puts him at 12th. I’d say he’s solidly top 10 with ability to be top 5 with team support.

I agree with this but I’d put Jorgenson in with the 5-7 group.

Are you doing GTs only or one-week races too? If the former, you arguing that someone who's never finished higher than 8th in a GT (without ever having crashed out of one in a better spot) might be the 5th-best GT rider in the world at this point in time, whilst simultaneously lecturing me about where I've put the same rider, is really funny.

As for reconciliation, see my most recent post in this thread.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Are you doing GTs only or one-week races too? If the former, you arguing that someone who's never finished higher than 8th in a GT (without ever having crashed out of one in a better spot) might be the 5th-best GT rider in the world at this point in time, whilst simultaneously lecturing me about where I've put the same rider, is really funny.

As for reconciliation, see my most recent post in this thread.

I wouldn’t call it a lecture. No need to get hostile; we’re just having fun here. I put him in that group because:

• He did by far the most work of any helper (and still finished 8th)
• He crashed in stage 2, which contributed to his relatively poor performance on stage 4
• He finished 5th and 4th among GC riders in the ITT, only beaten by Big 4
• He was very strong on the last couple Alpine stages
• He has capabilities across all terrain - classics style stages, gravel, mountains, ITTs.

But 8-10 is probably a more fair spot for him, fair enough. I don’t understand “nowhere close” to the top 10, though.

Edit: Just read your other post I’d missed. That’s fine to have that perspective. I would have put Jai Hindley, Mas, etc higher than Jorgenson in previous years’ power rankings but don’t think they belong there now. Kuss is even a stretch because power rankings are all about what you can do right now.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Where do you put Jorgenson vs Arensman? Arensman has also never been a real leader with dedicated team support, but has finished 6th in 2 GT's and 5th in another. He also has some decent 1 week GC's behind his belt. Yet he isn't mentioned here by anyone. I don't think he is a top GT contender, but Jorgenson is being mentioned left and right, and honestly... he didn't do that much more work than Almeida did, if at all. It did stand out more due to the PdB + gravel stage, but overall, i think Almeida did more work over the 3 weeks.

They are quite comparable, Arensman is even 2cm taller, and a few months younger.

So again, i feel Jorgenson is being overrated by some. And i have a feeling Arensman may be better suited to the TDF than Rodriguez. He is certainly a better TT'er and usually his 3rd week is rather good. I'm not saying Arensman will prove to be the better GC rider in the future, but i think it's telling that nobody mentions him, while Jorgenson is supposedly banging on the door of the top 5.

 

[proffate]

Where do you put Jorgenson vs Arensman? Arensman has also never been a real leader with dedicated team support, but has finished 6th in 2 GT's and 5th in another. He also has some decent 1 week GC's behind his belt. Yet he isn't mentioned here by anyone. I don't think he is a top GT contender, but Jorgenson is being mentioned left and right, and honestly... he didn't do that much more work than Almeida did, if at all. It did stand out more due to the PdB + gravel stage, but overall, i think Almeida did more work over the 3 weeks.

They are quite comparable, Arensman is even 2cm taller, and a few months younger.

So again, i feel Jorgenson is being overrated by some. And i have a feeling Arensman may be better suited to the TDF than Rodriguez. He is certainly a better TT'er and usually his 3rd week is rather good. I'm not saying Arensman will prove to be the better GC rider in the future, but i think it's telling that nobody mentions him, while Jorgenson is supposedly banging on the door of the top 5.

Maybe if Arensman is up there in a third week TDF TT, or goes in a break and drops multiple GT winners on the final climb, or wins a 2.WT race, people will get excited about him.

And don't try to pretend that 6th at the Giro is remotely close to top 10 at the tour.

That final day TT result is really hard to argue with if you ask me. The result of the top 3 perfectly reflected their strength over the whole 3 weeks. It stands to reason that Jorgenson was therefore 4th strongest in the race. But Almeida looked really good too, the only thing is it's hard to be excited about him because he's had more chances already.

 

[Netserk]

Where do you put Jorgenson vs Arensman? Arensman has also never been a real leader with dedicated team support, but has finished 6th in 2 GT's and 5th in another. He also has some decent 1 week GC's behind his belt. Yet he isn't mentioned here by anyone. I don't think he is a top GT contender, but Jorgenson is being mentioned left and right, and honestly... he didn't do that much more work than Almeida did, if at all. It did stand out more due to the PdB + gravel stage, but overall, i think Almeida did more work over the 3 weeks.

They are quite comparable, Arensman is even 2cm taller, and a few months younger.

So again, i feel Jorgenson is being overrated by some. And i have a feeling Arensman may be better suited to the TDF than Rodriguez. He is certainly a better TT'er and usually his 3rd week is rather good. I'm not saying Arensman will prove to be the better GC rider in the future, but i think it's telling that nobody mentions him, while Jorgenson is supposedly banging on the door of the top 5.

Arensman has never pushed big W/kg. Very unlike the Giro, the Tour this year was the stage race with the highest overall level of performances of all time, I think.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Maybe if Arensman is up there in a third week TDF TT, or goes in a break and drops multiple GT winners on the final climb, or wins a 2.WT race, people will get excited about him.

And don't try to pretend that 6th at the Giro is remotely close to top 10 at the tour.

That final day TT result is really hard to argue with if you ask me. The result of the top 3 perfectly reflected their strength over the whole 3 weeks. It stands to reason that Jorgenson was therefore 4th strongest in the race. But Almeida looked really good too, the only thing is it's hard to be excited about him because he's had more chances already.

You seem to be missing the point. Arensman already confirmed his potential by finishing 3 GT's in the top 6. So far Jorgenson has 1 top 10 spot. You may rate his 8th at the TDF higher than whatever Arensman showed, but he needs to replicate or improve on it.

And Jorgenson was not the 4th strongest GC rider at the Tour. Even without his crash and having done any work, he would not have outclimbed Landa and Almeida. You may value his work overall, and say he was the 4th strongest rider "overall", just like a few years ago you could have said Van Aert was one of the 3 strongest riders in the Tour, but that doesn't equate to 4th or 3rd in GC.

 

[proffate]

You seem to be missing the point. Arensman already confirmed his potential by finishing 3 GT's in the top 6. So far Jorgenson has 1 top 10 spot. You may rate his 8th at the TDF higher than whatever Arensman showed, but he needs to replicate or improve on it.

And Jorgenson was not the 4th strongest GC rider at the Tour. Even without his crash and having done any work, he would not have outclimbed Landa and Almeida. You may value his work overall, and say he was the 4th strongest rider "overall", just like a few years ago you could have said Van Aert was one of the 3 strongest riders in the Tour, but that doesn't equate to 4th or 3rd in GC.

Uh yes, he would have. Did you not watch Isola? And did you notice he beat them both handily in a hilly TT?

Jorgenson's entire deficit to Landa is explained by the gap on PDB, where he gave a record-beating leadout to the GC group.