GC Power Ranking

[Potomac]

The thread title clearly states „power ranking“ while what you‘re referencing is a cumulative performance ranking. It should be obvious that the PCS ranking is not applicable here.

Everyone's "power" ranking is based on more than just the single most recent performance.

Where's your "power" ranking?

 

[Boehmand]

Comparing the various top 10s to each other it looks like the PCS top 10 is just as good.

I have no idea what you are on about when saying "just as good".

The whole point of this thread is to debate what the true strength ratio is between GC riders - IF they all rode the same races under equal conditions.

 

[Potomac]

I have no idea what you are on about when saying "just as good".

The whole point of this thread is to debate what the true strength ratio is between GC riders - IF they all rode the same races under equal conditions.

If somebody that didn't follow cycling wanted to know who the best GC riders were, the PCS generated list is "just as good" a list as compared to the ones posted by people here.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

If somebody that didn't follow cycling wanted to know who the best GC riders were, the PCS generated list is "just as good" a list as compared to the ones posted by people here.

So I only watched the Tour de France and Pogacar came second, but you're telling me he's only eighth-best? Wow, that must have been a surprisingly good result! Especially given that he beat world #3 Adam Yates!

 

[QueenStagiaire]

If somebody that didn't follow cycling wanted to know who the best GC riders were, the PCS generated list is "just as good" a list as compared to the ones posted by people here.

If I told someone that didn‘t follow cycling that Mark Cavendish would win all three Grand Tours next year they might believe me because they‘d have little to no idea of who or what that even is. Luckily this isn‘t the cycling forum for people who don‘t follow cycling.

 

[Potomac]

So I only watched the Tour de France and Pogacar came second, but you're telling me he's only eighth-best? Wow, that must have been a surprisingly good result! Especially given that he beat world #3 Adam Yates!

Post your latest top 10 , if the Vuelta didn't change opinion about anybody.
The PCS list certainly has some cracks in it. But maybe yours does as well.

 

[Netserk]

Post your latest top 10 , if the Vuelta didn't change opinion about anybody.
The PCS list certainly has some cracks in it. But maybe yours does as well.

I already posted mine (and updated it after the Vuelta). In which regards do you think the PCS ranking is better than mine? Does it predict anything better than mine possibly will?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Post your latest top 10 , if the Vuelta didn't change opinion about anybody.
The PCS list certainly has some cracks in it. But maybe yours does as well.

Zero signs of deflection detected here...

Also, Pogacar in 8th is not a crack, but a fatal fracture if you're trying to construct a power ranking.

Moreover, you need to strip out one-week races here. GTs and one-week races are different kettles of fish (just ask Simon Spilak) and the requisite skillsets only partially overlap. A power ranking should only ever try to establish a hierarchy in one domain, trying to combine two makes things far too messy.

As for my list, I've already said that 1) Vingegaard 2) Pogacar 3) Roglic is objectively the only correct order, and that everything after that is heavily subjective. So unless you do really weird stuff like dropping someone like Evenepoel or Thomas from your top-10, differences from ranking to ranking in the places from 4th onwards do not qualify as 'cracks'. In a hypothetical world where every GC rider starts a balanced GT today in equal form with no consideration of team roles (which is what a power ranking should reflect), here's what I'd go with...
- 4th to 6th: Kuss, Evenepoel, Thomas (in that order, but I can see arguments for any of the 3 in 4th). Have hit the highest levels outside of the big 3, but all of them have questions of replicability of their performances - Kuss has done only one great GC despite attempts to stay up there (and some lower top-10s in the process) in the past, Evenepoel has also done only one great GC and bombed at the Vuelta, and Thomas also bombed at the Vuelta which might indicate age kicking in. For me, this order is more gut feeling than anything else, and really none of them feel like they should be #4 because the gap to Roglic is pretty big.
- 7th onwards: here it becomes even more vague and debatable. I think there are solid arguments for another eight riders to be top-10 in this list, and I definitely see valid reasons to disagree with most of my arguments why someone should/shouldn't be in the top-10.
7) Hindley - only remaining GT winner of the past 2 years and would likely have podiumed the Tour this year
8) Ayuso - one of only 5 riders to make the top-4 in multiple GTs in the past 2 years, despite being 19 in the former and having had a completely disrupted season in the latter
9) Carapaz - almost won the Giro last year, just because injury ruined this season doesn't mean he should be disregarded
10) Mas - usually best of the rest at the Vuelta and was pretty close to doing so this year despite an injury-disrupted preparation. His non-Vuelta performances are a bit suspect, though.
11) Almeida - more consistent than the rest, has also come far closer to winning a GT than anyone not yet listed in the past 3 years, but I think his top level is just a tad lower than those above him
12) Rodriguez - I think he podiums this Tour without injury ruining the first half of his season and the crash on the final mountain stage
13) Adam Yates - not convinced this Tour wasn't the outlier

Impossible to rank accurately due to lack of recentish, relevant results + a career-threatening crash he is yet to recover from) Hart - no particularly good reasons for his horrible 2021/22, not clear how he would have gone on the actual mountain stages at the Giro, but his peaks are up there.

Nobody else belongs in the discussion for a top-10, IMO. Simon Yates and Landa are probably next, but would you really put them ahead of five of the riders listed above?

 

[Potomac]

I already posted mine (and updated it after the Vuelta). In which regards do you think the PCS ranking is better than mine? Does it predict anything better than mine possibly will?

You have Thomas in the top 10

 

[Netserk]

10) Mas - usually best of the rest at the Vuelta and was pretty close to doing so this year despite an injury-disrupted preparation. His non-Vuelta performances are a bit suspect, though.

Was your ranking only about GTs or did it include one-week stage races?

 

[Netserk]

You have Thomas in the top 10

Point being?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Was your ranking only about GTs or did it include one-week stage races?

In a hypothetical world where every GC rider starts a balanced GT today in equal form with no consideration of team roles (which is what a power ranking should reflect), here's what I'd go with...

 

[Potomac]

Point being?

Point being?

You just asked to point out a problem with your top 10. Don't you remember?

 

[Netserk]

So it boils down to the Tour last year, mostly?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

You have Thomas in the top 10

If you don't think the guy who was best of the rest in the 2022 Tour before nearly winning the 2023 Giro isn't so much as in the top-10 of best GC riders, then I don't know what to tell you.

And to preempt your reply: his results in one-week races have gone bad because he very obviously doesn't care about them anymore and also doesn't need them to go well in GTs. One of many reasons why, as about half the forum had tried and failed to get through your skull, the PCS cumulative results ranking is mostly useless for this purpose.

 

[Potomac]

1. Vingegaard
2. Pogi
3. Rogla
4. Thomas
5. Evenepoel
6. Kuss
7. Hindley
8. A. Yates
9. Mas
10. Almeida

If I quoted the correct post as your latest ranking, then 7 of your top 10 ten riders are also in the PCS top 10.

 

[Squire]

Zero signs of deflection detected here...

Also, Pogacar in 8th is not a crack, but a fatal fracture if you're trying to construct a power ranking.

Moreover, you need to strip out one-week races here. GTs and one-week races are different kettles of fish (just ask Simon Spilak) and the requisite skillsets only partially overlap. A power ranking should only ever try to establish a hierarchy in one domain, trying to combine two makes things far too messy.

As for my list, I've already said that 1) Vingegaard 2) Pogacar 3) Roglic is objectively the only correct order, and that everything after that is heavily subjective. So unless you do really weird stuff like dropping someone like Evenepoel or Thomas from your top-10, differences from ranking to ranking in the places from 4th onwards do not qualify as 'cracks'. In a hypothetical world where every GC rider starts a balanced GT today in equal form with no consideration of team roles (which is what a power ranking should reflect), here's what I'd go with...
- 4th to 6th: Kuss, Evenepoel, Thomas (in that order, but I can see arguments for any of the 3 in 4th). Have hit the highest levels outside of the big 3, but all of them have questions of replicability of their performances - Kuss has done only one great GC despite attempts to stay up there (and some lower top-10s in the process) in the past, Evenepoel has also done only one great GC and bombed at the Vuelta, and Thomas also bombed at the Vuelta which might indicate age kicking in. For me, this order is more gut feeling than anything else, and really none of them feel like they should be #4 because the gap to Roglic is pretty big.
- 7th onwards: here it becomes even more vague and debatable. I think there are solid arguments for another eight riders to be top-10 in this list, and I definitely see valid reasons to disagree with most of my arguments why someone should/shouldn't be in the top-10.
7) Hindley - only remaining GT winner of the past 2 years and would likely have podiumed the Tour this year
8) Ayuso - one of only 5 riders to make the top-4 in multiple GTs in the past 2 years, despite being 19 in the former and having had a completely disrupted season in the latter
9) Carapaz - almost won the Giro last year, just because injury ruined this season doesn't mean he should be disregarded
10) Mas - usually best of the rest at the Vuelta and was pretty close to doing so this year despite an injury-disrupted preparation. His non-Vuelta performances are a bit suspect, though.
11) Almeida - more consistent than the rest, has also come far closer to winning a GT than anyone not yet listed in the past 3 years, but I think his top level is just a tad lower than those above him
12) Rodriguez - I think he podiums this Tour without injury ruining the first half of his season and the crash on the final mountain stage
13) Adam Yates - not convinced this Tour wasn't the outlier

Impossible to rank accurately due to lack of recentish, relevant results + a career-threatening crash he is yet to recover from) Hart - no particularly good reasons for his horrible 2021/22, not clear how he would have gone on the actual mountain stages at the Giro, but his peaks are up there.

Nobody else belongs in the discussion for a top-10, IMO. Simon Yates and Landa are probably next, but would you really put them ahead of five of the riders listed above?

Quite spot on about most things. It feels a bit strange for me to agree with putting Thomas and Kuss above people like Hindley and Ayuso, as for quite a long time now I've been convinced that the former two are past it/not consistent enough respectively. But hard to argue against the results. Say what you want about Kuss versus his teammates, but he regularly crushed the other GC riders in the race. I think Thomas' poor Vuelta is more a case of him not bothering rather than age having suddenly kicked in in the months between Giro and Vuelta. But he might have declined by next year of course.

At first thought, I expected that Landa would need to be much higher on such a list, but you make a good case for your top 13 being more deserving. Although he wasn't far off Carapaz in the 2022 Giro and better than Mas in the recent Vuelta.

I guess if I was to make a list à la feltet.dk where I rank riders by winning potential (and not likelihood of finishing as high as possible), I'd put Geoghegan Hart ahead of a few of these, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding him as you rightly point out.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

At first thought, I expected that Landa would need to be much higher on such a list, but you make a good case for your top 13 being more deserving. Although he wasn't far off Carapaz in the 2022 Giro and better than Mas in the recent Vuelta.

I can see an argument for Landa being a little higher - if you don't think Carapaz will get back to/close to his best, if you are sure Adam Yates' Tour podium was a one-off, if you don't want to throw in any caveats regarding Rodriguez or Hart - but I don't see how you can justify a top-10 position for him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič is too powerful stage racer to be considered third best in the world, by some.

P.S. Luckily stage racing season 2024 is just around the corner.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Roglič is too powerful stage racer to be considered third best in the world, by some.

P.S. Luckily stage racing season 2024 is just around the corner.

What’s your post-Tour top 10?

 

[Boehmand]

If somebody that didn't follow cycling wanted to know who the best GC riders were, the PCS generated list is "just as good" a list as compared to the ones posted by people here.

Obviously not, for the many reasons others have given you in this thread.

But it would be great to point to it if someone asked "who is the top ranked rider?", since the UCI does not do speciality rankings.

 

[Red Rick]

Top 3 is super clear and makes me inclined to say "zomg strong GT era" then I look at all the rest and I can't really pick any names that make me think it's a strong 4th or 5th best GT rider.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

What’s your post-Tour top 10?

1. Roglic
2. Roglic’ wife
3. Roglic’ older son
4. Roglic’ younger son
5. Roglic’ mum
6. Roglic’ dad
7. Roglic’ neighbour
8. Roglic’ other neighbour
9. Roglic’ barber
10. Roglic’ biggest fan (so myself)

Wait, my bad, wrong account.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Top 3 is super clear and makes me inclined to say "zomg strong GT era" then I look at all the rest and I can't really pick any names that make me think it's a strong 4th or 5th best GT rider.

At the same time, if you look at the kind of names you have to leave out of the top-10, that does make you think it’s a strong era. Just one that’s kind of missing a tier between the best and the rest.

 

[Red Rick]

Zero signs of deflection detected here...

Also, Pogacar in 8th is not a crack, but a fatal fracture if you're trying to construct a power ranking.

Moreover, you need to strip out one-week races here. GTs and one-week races are different kettles of fish (just ask Simon Spilak) and the requisite skillsets only partially overlap. A power ranking should only ever try to establish a hierarchy in one domain, trying to combine two makes things far too messy.

As for my list, I've already said that 1) Vingegaard 2) Pogacar 3) Roglic is objectively the only correct order, and that everything after that is heavily subjective. So unless you do really weird stuff like dropping someone like Evenepoel or Thomas from your top-10, differences from ranking to ranking in the places from 4th onwards do not qualify as 'cracks'. In a hypothetical world where every GC rider starts a balanced GT today in equal form with no consideration of team roles (which is what a power ranking should reflect), here's what I'd go with...
- 4th to 6th: Kuss, Evenepoel, Thomas (in that order, but I can see arguments for any of the 3 in 4th). Have hit the highest levels outside of the big 3, but all of them have questions of replicability of their performances - Kuss has done only one great GC despite attempts to stay up there (and some lower top-10s in the process) in the past, Evenepoel has also done only one great GC and bombed at the Vuelta, and Thomas also bombed at the Vuelta which might indicate age kicking in. For me, this order is more gut feeling than anything else, and really none of them feel like they should be #4 because the gap to Roglic is pretty big.
- 7th onwards: here it becomes even more vague and debatable. I think there are solid arguments for another eight riders to be top-10 in this list, and I definitely see valid reasons to disagree with most of my arguments why someone should/shouldn't be in the top-10.
7) Hindley - only remaining GT winner of the past 2 years and would likely have podiumed the Tour this year
8) Ayuso - one of only 5 riders to make the top-4 in multiple GTs in the past 2 years, despite being 19 in the former and having had a completely disrupted season in the latter
9) Carapaz - almost won the Giro last year, just because injury ruined this season doesn't mean he should be disregarded
10) Mas - usually best of the rest at the Vuelta and was pretty close to doing so this year despite an injury-disrupted preparation. His non-Vuelta performances are a bit suspect, though.
11) Almeida - more consistent than the rest, has also come far closer to winning a GT than anyone not yet listed in the past 3 years, but I think his top level is just a tad lower than those above him
12) Rodriguez - I think he podiums this Tour without injury ruining the first half of his season and the crash on the final mountain stage
13) Adam Yates - not convinced this Tour wasn't the outlier

Impossible to rank accurately due to lack of recentish, relevant results + a career-threatening crash he is yet to recover from) Hart - no particularly good reasons for his horrible 2021/22, not clear how he would have gone on the actual mountain stages at the Giro, but his peaks are up there.

Nobody else belongs in the discussion for a top-10, IMO. Simon Yates and Landa are probably next, but would you really put them ahead of five of the riders listed above?

I think at this point Adam Yates below Carapaz, Mas, Rodriguez and Almeida is pretty hard to argue.