GC Power Ranking

[Devil's Elbow]

In contrast, Evenepoel has yet to win a one-week World Tour race, having made eight attempts over the last three years.

He won the UAE Tour last year.

 

[AmRacer]

He won the UAE Tour last year.

Yes, that true. But it isn't one of the big one week races.

 

[Netserk]

If he had not gone to the Giro, and focussed on the Vuelta from the beginning, go for GC, not for breaks, then i would not put any money on Skjelmose finishing ahead. I believe riding the Giro beforehand is a bigger factor than you make it out to be or believe to be. Look at riders like Almeida, Hindley, Carapaz... in recent years, who went for GC in the Giro, and then also went for the Vuelta.

Hindley and Carapaz also failed in their first GT this year, despite not riding the Giro beforehand. So the trend you see is partly down to a general variability in hitting your targets in good form and avoiding bad luck. After succeeding in the Giro, it's more salient when they fail in the Vuelta, even if the underlying chance was the same for both GTs. I think that statistical effect matters as much as the causal impact the Giro prep has on the Vuelta prep.

Some riders are more fragile than others, or vary in motivation and professionalism. Some riders can only get their act together for a single target in a season (looking at you, Thomas). O'Connor did well in that regard this year, but quite poorly the two previous years. Could be down to luck or greater abilities this year. Only the latter should merit a higher ranking.

 

[CyclistAbi]

winning four

Five.

securing six victories

Six big stage races and some more then once.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Five.



Six big stage races and some more then once.

Five, true! I meant within that six year period in which he has won five different one-week World Tour races - but actually seven, not six, total. Apparently I'm bad at counting, haha.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

He won the UAE Tour last year.

Yeah, that's true. I should have made it clear that I meant the big ones that actually matter.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Five, true! I meant within that six year period in which he has won five different one-week World Tour races - but actually seven, not six, total. Apparently I'm bad at counting, haha.

It happens to the best of us.

 

[Blanco]

Almeida would have beat Mas and was ahead of him, Adam was disappointing.

Sure, if you say so..

 

[SHAD0W93]

Sure, if you say so..

Almeida is a better GC rider and was performing better than Mas till he got sick on climbs that didn’t suit him.

Mas beating Adam also wasn’t the point of the original post that Abi made.

 

[Netserk]

Almeida is a better GC rider and was performing better than Mas till he got sick on climbs that didn’t suit him.

No. Rogla, Eetvelt and Mas were the strongest riders on the stage 4 uphill finish.

 

[SHAD0W93]

No. Rogla, Eetvelt and Mas were the strongest riders on the stage 4 uphill finish.

Almeida came back on a climb that didn’t suit him to finish third. When we had some on here before the stage stating it didn’t suit his characteristics and if he got dropped he wasn’t coming back, when he started yo-yoing that he will lose some time, and then had enough strength to finish third still. Only way Mas was beating Almeida was if Almeida got sick, and he did.

 

[memyselfandI]

My ranking would look something like this:

1.Pogacar
2. Vingegaard

While it is a very close contest between the two, I would still rank Vingegaard slightly higher in Grand Tours. However, Pogacar demonstrates exceptional strength in one-week races and maintains peak form throughout the year.

3. Roglic
4. Evenepoel

Similarly, the competition between these two is tight, but Roglic’s experience and achievements place him in third. Over the past six years, Roglic has participated in 12 Grand Tours, winning four and finishing on the podium in eight. He DNF the remaining four. Additionally, Roglic has competed in 13 one-week World Tour races, securing six victories. In contrast, Evenepoel has yet to win a one-week World Tour race, having made eight attempts over the last three years.

5. Yates
6. Almeida

Yates holds the fifth spot in my ranking. Although Almeida is gaining ground, Yates has won two one-week World Tour races over the past two seasons, while Almeida has yet to secure a victory.

7. Ayuso
8. Mas

Mas is the stronger rider in Grand Tours, but Ayuso excels in one-week races. Over the course of his career, Mas has finished in the top five of a one-week World Tour race only three times out of 23 starts, with his best result being fifth place.

9. Landa
10. O'Connor
11. Rodriguez

Landa ranks ninth due to his consistent performance in both Grand Tours and one-week races. As for the tenth spot, it's difficult to decide. Many riders could be considered, but for me, it's between O'Connor and Rodriguez. O'Connor's superior results in Grand Tours give him the edge, but he is also a strong competitor in one-week races.

I really like this ranking, except that I would rank Ayuso behind Mas and put Carapaz in 7th place.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Hindley and Carapaz also failed in their first GT this year, despite not riding the Giro beforehand. So the trend you see is partly down to a general variability in hitting your targets in good form and avoiding bad luck. After succeeding in the Giro, it's more salient when they fail in the Vuelta, even if the underlying chance was the same for both GTs. I think that statistical effect matters as much as the causal impact the Giro prep has on the Vuelta prep.

Some riders are more fragile than others, or vary in motivation and professionalism. Some riders can only get their act together for a single target in a season (looking at you, Thomas). O'Connor did well in that regard this year, but quite poorly the two previous years. Could be down to luck or greater abilities this year. Only the latter should merit a higher ranking.

Even disregarding O'Connor's Vuelta, he still finished 4th in the Giro, which by all accounts still should be rated higher than Skjelmose's 5th spot in the Vuelta.

 

[bNator]

Even disregarding O'Connor's Vuelta, he still finished 4th in the Giro, which by all accounts still should be rated higher than Skjelmose's 5th spot in the Vuelta.

If you disregard O’Connors time gain in the Vuelta, then you are comparing 4th in the Giro with 4th in the Vuelta and it’s not self evident which of them rates higher in terms of power ranking. If Giro was ridden in the same way Vuelta was where the race exploded almost every mountain stage, who knows if BOC still gets 4th… Giro was ridden conservatively by anyone but Pog.

 

[BigCoward]

make it out to be or believe to be. Look at riders like Almeida, Hindley, Carapaz... in recent years, who went for GC in the Giro, and then also went for the Vuelta.

Bernard was probably the biggest drop off.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If you disregard O’Connors time gain in the Vuelta, then you are comparing 4th in the Giro with 4th in the Vuelta and it’s not self evident which of them rates higher in terms of power ranking. If Giro was ridden in the same way Vuelta was where the race exploded almost every mountain stage, who knows if BOC still gets 4th… Giro was ridden conservatively by anyone but Pog.

If you wanna play it like that, even without his timegain in the Vuelta, he still finishes in the top 10. And if you want to address the pace in the Vuelta, then surely that tells you something about the effort he had to put in to defend his lead.

 

[bNator]

If you wanna play it like that, even without his timegain in the Vuelta, he still finishes in the top 10. And if you want to address the pace in the Vuelta, then surely that tells you something about the effort he had to put in to defend his lead.

I don't want to play anything, I'm just pointing out the comparison between Vuelta and the Giro tells you very little about power ranking because Vuelta was ridden way harder than the Giro, which was basically a stalemate for podium spots. I personally rate BOC above Skjelmose in GC power ranking. Yes he gained time because they let him but he also lost more than he would optimally lose had he not gone all-in a couple of times when defending the red jersey...

 

[Netserk]

Even disregarding O'Connor's Vuelta, he still finished 4th in the Giro, which by all accounts still should be rated higher than Skjelmose's 5th spot in the Vuelta.

I'm not ranking results, so no.

 

[Netserk]

Almeida came back on a climb that didn’t suit him to finish third. When we had some on here before the stage stating it didn’t suit his characteristics and if he got dropped he wasn’t coming back, when he started yo-yoing that he will lose some time, and then had enough strength to finish third still. Only way Mas was beating Almeida was if Almeida got sick, and he did.

Almeida got dropped on the only climb they raced before he got sick, and because the three strongest then stalled and Almeida made it back again, you use that sole result as argument that Almeida was performing better than Mas. I just don't see it. Was Landa also performing better than Mas on that stage (if it could be argued that the climb didn't suit him)?

 

[tobydawq]

Almeida got dropped on the only climb they raced before he got sick, and because the three strongest then stalled and Almeida made it back again, you use that sole result as argument that Almeida was performing better than Mas. I just don't see it. Was Landa also performing better than Mas on that stage (if it could be argued that the climb didn't suit him)?

Almeida always gets dropped on climbs (at least before TdS of this year) and then makes it back so I think he is a special case in that department.

Should Van Eetvelt not be ranked above him if your logic is applied?

 

[Netserk]

Almeida always gets dropped on climbs (at least before TdS of this year) and then makes it back so I think he is a special case in that department.

Should Van Eetvelt not be ranked above him if your logic is applied?

Yes, with regards to the narrow claim of who performed better on the stage 4 MTF, Van Eetvelt should be ranked above Almeida.

Almeida [...] was performing better than Mas till he got sick on climbs that didn’t suit him.

"Climbs that didn't suit him" = Pico Villuercas.