This has the potential to be a very good route. But also could be very mediocre. We'll have to see.
I see it as follows:
P) Lisboa, identical to 2009. Rid of the pointless flat sprint! Moves the decisive mountain stages closer to the finish! Excellent!
1) Likely to be a pure sprinter's stage up the coast
2) Liable to be fairly hilly though approaching from the south not too much in the way of climbs immediately before Viana do Castelo. However, with this having been the spot occupied much of the time recently by Monte Assunção, I am reasonably optimistic about the possibilities of a finish at the Santuário de Santa Luzia. This climb isn't especially steep, and at about 3km isn't all that long either, but it's beautiful and scenic, there's enough room to host the race, and it's on some nicely well-maintained cobbles. A few cat.2 and 3 bumps on the way there and this could be a really nice stage.
3) The distance between these two is very small so I imagine either a northward or southward loop to produce an intermediate stage. I hope so, as with this being before the main mountain stages, it could be a difficult stage to control.
4) This seems odd as Arouca is a long way from Fafe but Mondim de Basto isn't. It's about 100km by quickest road routes from Arouca to Mondim de Basto, so given that this stage tends to be around 150-160km not too much room to play with. I anticipate a couple of smaller climbs before the MTF; if we're lucky we'll get Monte do Viso or the Alto do Espinho, which is long but not overly complicated, gradually ramping up until we get the final 12km at 5%. To be honest, I'd settle for either since the last two years, the Senhora da Graça stage has been a couple of cat.3 or 4s then Farinha.
5) Might have some bumps in the first half, but definitely likely to be a sprinter's finish.
6) Fairly long rest day transfer, and these two towns are quite close together. Maybe a break's stage, or possibly another sprint given that there aren't really too many major climbs close to Castelo Branco, however with enough leg breaking short climbs they can really carve the bunch on this. Don't see them making anything that'll drop Sérgio Ribeiro though.
7) Given the direction they're headed from I can't see this being anything but the classic Penhas Douradas-then-circuits-of-Gouveia stage that we've seen many a time, most recently in 2007 and 2009. I like these as the Gouveia cobbled climb isn't tough enough to create major action on its own, but placed after a long climb that will drop the pure sprinters it gives attackers more of a chance and makes a more interesting finale.
8) However, if they do go over Penhas Douradas in the Gouveia stage, then that will make it harder to just repeat it the next day in the Torre stage. Perhaps this will mean a return to the stages in the style of 2007 and 2009 approaching from the south west and doing Carrazedo to lead straight into Torre; it's an easier climb than the Penhas da Saúde/Penhas Douradas double but it backs straight into Torre. However Oliveira do Hospital is very close to Seia so I can readily imagine we will be seeing a clone of the last couple of years' stages. I'd like to see a stage with a couple of smaller climbs in the Serra do Açor before Carrazedo and Torre this year.
9) This is excellent as I presume we will get a straight clone of the super tough 2011 crono.
10) I assume this will be a parade stage but it's certainly possible to have at least a mildly hilly circuit race to finish here.