Like 2019 when everyone thought he was going to walk the giro and got his a*** handed to him by G's back-up plan?
Roglic may be the greatest one week stage racer ever. But he is merely a very good 3 week stage racer.
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Roglic may be the greatest one week stage racer ever. But he is merely a very good 3 week stage racer.
G in 2018 form, Tao and Carapaz in last Autumn form, LRP in last year's Tour form and Dennis in beast mode are going to be a problem. All ifs at the moment, but a big problem for anyone, if so. You could very easily envisage a situation with Pog and Rog isolated, with 3 Ineos left in the high mountains.
Its not even like G hasn't had good form since 2018, even with poor prep he was 2nd in 2019 TdF, and would likely have won the Giro less than a year ago without the stray bottle.
I think he would have had a hard time beating Evenepoel.
One thing that has been underestimated as a tactic of Sky/Ineos in their later TdF wins when Froome waned and then wasn't a GC threat was how they placed two riders in the top 4 three years in a row. As much as there is/was a Sky train - having a second rider there makes the race a hell of a lot easier to control and it makes it much easier to make things chaotic if you're not in yellow. This is what I think Brailsford alludes to when he talks of moving away from their previous tactic - Pog/Rog are probably a level above any individual Ineos rider on any given day, but they have four riders in the tour squad who are head and shoulders better than any other rider supporting Pog or Rog (unless Kruijswijk can pull together any kind of form). If they can place as many of Thomas, Porte, Carapaz and Tao within touching distance of the Slovenians it will make the job of UAE and Jumbo incredibly difficult in holding the race together. In this context I think they will have Thomas there as their 'safe' option - he will TT well and ride consistently over the three weeks in all likelihood (if he can stay upright ofc, and build on the performance from this week).
Big Doopie
BANNED
lol.
what did rog do other than fade in the third week and prove to be unable to make huge differences? He can only punch in the last 500m and take bonuses. but even he realizes that he has to hold energy in reserve to try and outlast the last week (both vueltas compared to giro and tdf).
Thomas -- discount rog? really? lol! when exactly did rog dominate the tdf like thomas did in 2018? um...never. did not even do it in the vuelta.
I agree, however, with everyone, that for Thomas to compete, he will need to be at 2018 level or close. so probably unlikely.
but no matter. pog is a completely different beast.
pog stays healthy. pog dominates the tdf. rog vies for podium with G (only if G remains on his bike and is close to 2018 shape).
When you get a Tour where the #2 and #3 did the Giro and both lost a minute due to crash/mechanicals and you drop them like once in total and get beaten by both in the ITT that tells you all about the supposed dominance.
The Tour isn't the strongest race every year, nor is every Tour winner automatically better than than all the rest.
He would have won the Giro last year, with Tao, Ganna and Rohan riding support he'd have breezed through the field, assuming he rode to his capabilities. Even the 2019 tour I think he was capable of winning , but he had to support Bernal. He has a pretty great skill set, and he's really figured out how to maximize it, but he or Ineos will need to do something special to beat Pogacar in the Tour.
Thomas was fastest in the ITT until the final descent where he took it easy like today.
To be fair, Thomas probably wins the ITT if he doen't take it easy in the final part. He knew only a crash would stop him from winning the Tour, so he was very cautious and took it easy, similar to today.
Also Froome got dropped multiple times on the climbs. He shouldn't have finished 3rd if Jumbo played it right.
Saying that Pogačar will dominate the Tour alone is a slight overstatement. Tadej only finished ahead (gaining time) of Primož on three occasions in stage race mountain/hill stages. Two times Roglič didn't exactly go all out to follow (stage 20 Vuelta, stage 8 Tour) and once he crashed (Vuelta stage 9). On all other occasions Roglič was either equal on time or gained time. This season they have been prety equal uphill so far. So I really don't see a precedent that would show that Pogačar will just start dropping Roglič at will on mountain stages... unless you expect him to win both TTs with 2 minutes advantage?
Yes, we know, that's the point some of us are making, thanks for agreeing though.
I think the idea is that a rider is more likely to make a bigger improvement between WT seasons 2/3 than between seasons 5/6.
It is great for the fans, the Tour and for Ineos that GT is great again. Having said that I have the gut feeling that will be dropped like a sack of potatoes by the Slovenians. The only advantage to him is his team.
Big Doopie
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it’s more about being a year older.
Pog is likely to improve greatly from age 21 to 22, Rog will likely stay the same or may weaken slightly.
I have just seen it before and Pog’s (surprising) win was like Fignon’s in 1983 at 22. The next year Fignon whacked everyone.
Pog is already clearly better than he was last spring.
Big Doopie
BANNED
that’s a somewhat interesting take on what happened. Thomas was largely kept in check by team tactics to keep Froome In the game. He utterly dominated the two big mountain stages, winning them both in a row with ease. He didn’t have to do anything after that. The tour was over. Even Dumoulin said that Thomas could’ve dropped them all anytime he wanted. He dominated that tour. It was completely over after Alpe d’huez.
And who was fourth, trailing both riders who had also done the Giro? And who collapsed in the last time trial in the third week?
I like the way that he raced today. After body slamming himself he could have just waited for the next group to come by and ridden to the line, but he RACED!
Agree. He was probably also mad at himself for crashing and got a nice adrenaline boost. Thomas has a lot of pride in his performance, which has been a strength.
I think Primoz is going to storm the TT and pull an unexpectedly large amount of time from all the Ineos guys
Even G? 8 months ago without a very good build up he was as good as anyone not named Ganna at the world champs. This year he has looked better prepared and Roglic won't have built his season around the TTs like those around his performance level did.
??
I'm pretty sure Roglic said he was gonna train more on his TT bike for the 2021 season.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas takes some time in the ITTs. I will be very surprised if he's close in the mountains though.
In my opinion Carapaz will very likely have issues regarding TT on this years Tour addition. That leaves Porte and Thomas and Thomas likely being in better position after first TT. The strength of Ineos will for sure help Thomas but in the end Thomas will need to cope with some mano a mano type of cycling.
P.S. Here i feel that @BigCoward doesn't take this into account. In this thread and in some others. That is OK lets say you have Ganna and Padun in the same team. That doesn't come down to saying such team will for sure win as a cyclist from it will win TT and another one will drop Santa.
P.S. Here i feel that @BigCoward doesn't take this into account. In this thread and in some others. That is OK lets say you have Ganna and Padun in the same team. That doesn't come down to saying such team will for sure win as a cyclist from it will win TT and another one will drop Santa.
This isn't my position. Pog and Rog likely can't leave it to the last TT and they know it with GT. So they have to seriously drop him, and that could be each of them alone against the whole Ineos train. if G is in top form I'm not sure they can do that by themselves.
They also have to worry about carapaz f'ing off up the road while Ineos sit on and watch. Carapaz is a weaker TT'er than them, but he If he goes long range and Roglic is by himself I don't think Roglic is better over a long climb by himself than Carapaz 1 on 1. So a lot depends on the dynamics of how the Slovenians race (watch only each other like nibs and roglic in the giro), and if GT and Carapaz are in top top form.
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