Giro 2017, stage 10: Foligno - Montefalco 39,8km (ITT)

[Laplaz]

STAGE 10: Foligno – Montefalco 39.8 km ITT

START TIME: TBD

Technical Overview:
The first ITT of the race comes the latest in recent times, with the GC presumably already shaped up by two very serious MTFs, and after a rest day. With a length just short of 40 km and a flattish terrain, this ITT is clearly good for specialists, more than last year's one, although not as good as other Giro TTs like the ones of 2013 and 2015. The route is very conveniently divided in 3 sections by 2 intermediates. The first section, 9.8 km long, is totally flat, on long and wide roads, absolutely perfect for specialists. The second section instead goes up the hills, featuring some twisty roads and rolling terrain, the hardest part being the road towards Madonna delle Grazie, 5 km always with easy ramps (never above 5%) and respites. The third section is again similar to the first in terms of mostly straight roads, but the terrain is not as flat, with some gentle uphill ramps (see last kms profile) that will lead every rider to Montefalco.

What to expect:
As I said, a TT for specialists. Serious gaps. 50-55 minutes of effort (but I'm always terrible at predicting TT times).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

A rolling TT with lot's of hills and near 40km. Can't spell Dumoulin more than that. If he pulls anything like last years TDF ITT it will be a total massacre.

Not comparable to the 10km flat, straight line power drag in the Tirreno.

 

[sir fly]

Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..

 

[Laplaz]

I guess Quintana will lose more than 2 minutes to Dumourain, and a minute to Pinot, not more.

 

[jaylew]

Nairo, Nibali, and Pinot to finish within 30 secs of each other. Dumo to gain 1:10 - 1:45 on that crew.

 

[Poursuivant]

Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.

Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.

Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.

On the bright side though, it might mean we can still have something of a GC battle at the Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Similar lengths at Vuelta 2015 saw Dumoulin take 1:33 on Quintana.
Quintana is pretty underrated as a TT'er.

Yeah, and last year in the tdf he lost 3 minutes on Dumoulin in a comparable ITT. I just hope Dumourain hasn't lost his TT strength and takes as much time on Quintana as possible. Quintana already leading the gc before the 3rd week would be absolutely horrible for the race.

Yeah well Dumoulin wasn't riding GC in that Tour and Quintana was pretty garbage honestly.

I think 2015 Vuelta TT is a better example. I say around 2 minutes. 3 minutes would be great for the race as it means that Dumoulin most likely will have about 1-2 minutes on Quintana going into double Stilfserjoch!

 

[Tonton]

Dumourain vs. Pinault .

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Had T-Mart been at the Giro, I would have declared this ITT the proper rainbow challenge this year (instead of the shite in Norway).

Go Dumoulin.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think Dumoulin will take somewhere around 1'40 on Quintana. About the same, perhaps slightly less, on Nibali and Mollema and about 1 minute on Pinot.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..

Think it will be more (maybe 1.30 to 1.45), but I agree, that Mollema and Pinot are about equal in a time trial like this, and they will likely lose 40-50 seconds to Dumoulin. Nibali should be close to those two.

 

[Gigs_98]

Aside from Dumoulin, who could win the stage? I think there aren't really many TT specialists

 

[kingjr]

I can see Pinot doing really well here, but he's so hard to predict :/

Edit @Gigs, just saw your post, I didn't mean to say he could potentially win the TT.

 

[classicomano]

Aside from Dumoulin, who could win the stage? I think there aren't really many TT specialists

Realistically? Im not sure but Kangert looked mighty strong today and when hes on he can do great time trials.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Good looking time trial.
Can't see huge gaps between the top GC riders at the moment.
A minute or so between Dumoulin and Quintana. Pinot and Mollema somewhere between, Nibali closer to Quintana than Pinot,..

Think it will be more (maybe 1.30 to 1.45), but I agree, that Mollema and Pinot are about equal in a time trial like this, and they will likely lose 40-50 seconds to Dumoulin. Nibali should be close to those two.

Yes, 1:30 is a better breaking point.

 

[Krokro]

What about Vasil K. on that one ? Dont remember any reference recently but he could do well on paper.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Aside from Dumoulin, who could win the stage? I think there aren't really many TT specialists

Jungels.
Pinot did beat Dumoulin in a TT last year (romandie? dunno anymore).

Uhh other than that hard to say.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

What about Vasil K. on that one ? Dont remember any reference recently but he could do well on paper.

Excellent pick.
Wouldn't be the first time he's saving Sky's Giro.

 

[Kwibus]

Vasil will be allowed too now with their gc hopes down. Jungels is another option I guess.

 

[killswitch]

Dumoulin, Tobias Ludvigsson, Lulu, Kangert, G Thomas (if he's recovered), Jungels, Kiriyenka, Campenaerts, Pinot to make the top 10 in no particular order.

 

[Kwibus]

Kruijswijk if in prime form wouldve been top 10 as well, but so far he never looked really good this Giro.

 

[amih77]

LL Sanchez seems to have a hunger for a stage win and looks like he's in a good shape.

 

[Krokro]

Re:

Dumoulin, Tobias Ludvigsson, Lulu, Kangert, G Thomas (if he's recovered), Jungels, Kiriyenka, Campenaerts, Pinot to make the top 10 in no particular order.

Except maybe for Sanchez i'd say it's a pretty realistic prediction !
Mollema not too far away if he's on a great day.

@sir fly : yeah exactly. After what happened to Sky GC hopes, he'd be a decent pick.

Although still a possibilitt: if G recovers mentally and physically from that crash, he is a great rouleur and seemed to be in a good shape. Time will tell if he is gonna keep doing his max to reach a potential top5. Again, crashes and failures might still happen so its mainly a strategic choice wether to keep going or saving energy for the Dawg Tour classic showdown !