Giro 2017, stage 16: Rovetta – Bormio 222 km

[DFA123]

Re:

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

There is no flat left after the last climb, where the teammates could help him create a bigger advantage.

I think the plan is that the domestiques can do a better job creating a gap on the final climb, than burying themselves for a smaller advantage on the flat. Where guys like Jungels, Dumoulin, Mollema and any domestiques will be a lot stronger than them.

 

[Frankschleck]

what happend to luis leon sanchez?

 

[spalco]

The stage so far has been just about as disappointing as it could have possibly been from an excitement point of view.

 

[sir fly]

See, the chasing group closed the gap to the duo... Similar fortune would find Quintana attacking on Stelvio.
Long drags...

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Are you aware that if Quintana attacks this group of 20 riders would be blown to pieces! Pinot, Nibali, Dumoulin and Zakarin would try to chase immidiately, there would not be an organized chase, no team would be capable to bring back Quintana at that point. The best thing to do was to attack on Stelvio, either he was afraid, or feeling bad. If he was playing smart, well it's a smart way to not win this Giro!

Well that would be the dream scenario. But Movistar obviously think the other riders are strong enough right now that it wouldn't pan out that way. Quintana is playing the long game; no need to waste energy to try to force something from 80km+ with another four mountain stages coming up. Obviously that's a bit annoying for us watching, but it certainly doesn't mean its a bad tactic imo.

Three mountain stages. I don't see where the fourth is coming from. He needs at least four and a half minutes. Attacking on the Umbrail will give him, if it goes well, maybe a minute. Three and a half from three mountain stages isn't easy, especially when one is Piancavallo and suited to Dumoulin, another doesn't have a hard penultimate climb and the last one is very short.

 

[Gigs_98]

What I don't get about Quintanas tactic is that for once riding aggressively would have made sense. I didn't expected him to try a Contador like attack like in Fuente de or Formigal which came completely out of nowhere and were completely unpredictable, I was expecting him to do an attack which seemed to be the only logical thing to do. Before today I didn't even consider the possibility that nothing could happen on the Stelvio because that attack was such an obvious one.

 

[Netserk]

Before today I didn't even consider the possibility that nothing could happen on the Stelvio because that attack was such an obvious one.

And then you just had to turn on the TV, eh?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Are you aware that if Quintana attacks this group of 20 riders would be blown to pieces! Pinot, Nibali, Dumoulin and Zakarin would try to chase immidiately, there would not be an organized chase, no team would be capable to bring back Quintana at that point. The best thing to do was to attack on Stelvio, either he was afraid, or feeling bad. If he was playing smart, well it's a smart way to not win this Giro!

Well that would be the dream scenario. But Movistar obviously think the other riders are strong enough right now that it wouldn't pan out that way. Quintana is playing the long game; no need to waste energy to try to force something from 80km+ with another four mountain stages coming up. Obviously that's a bit annoying for us watching, but it certainly doesn't mean its a bad tactic imo.

Three mountain stages. I don't see where the fourth is coming from. He needs at least four and a half minutes. Attacking on the Umbrail will give him, if it goes well, maybe a minute. Three and a half from three mountain stages isn't easy, especially when one is Piancavallo and suited to Dumoulin, another doesn't have a hard penultimate climb and the last one is very short.

I guess he thinks that the cumulative effect is going to see Dumoulin crack at some point or another. We've seen quite a few times in recent GTs, that it's often far from the hardest mountain stages that deliver the decisive blow. The cumulative effect just catches up with some riders.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

If Quintana does not attack is because he is not feeling very strong now!

I would attack with one leg if I was him, with 3 men up front and such deficit to Dumoulin. He doesn't have a heart of a champion...

Nairo has a history of not attacking until the last moment, this is no different. As much as everyone wants a Contador style raid through the mountains it will never happen with Nairo Quintana.

We've been through this. Every one of his grand tours wins he's gone from 50km+ out. I did the math last year during the Tour, but IIRC it now adds up to 4 of the last 6 GC attacks from 50km+out have been pushed by Nairo. This is a narrative completely devoid of facts.

His team was set up for an attack today from nearly 100km out. If he didn't go, it's because he didn't feel he had the legs. He's so effing aggresive he's riding without teammates at the moment, just so he can go on attack later. No one else does that. Not even Pantani did that. The real one, not the myth.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

He has three teammates up ahead ready to wait for him. They will easily distance a peloton with only a few tired helpers.

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

For Christ sake what gap would one Trek and one QS guy limit to Quintana?! He would give them 1min in 2-3km easily, even if Jungels and Mollema are working too!!! What Quintana needs is only 20-30 sec on Dumoulin, meybe even less, just to connect with his men upfront. Then it's a winning situation.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Re:

New Movistar tactics...Amador to gain as much time as possible on Dumoulin. So for the next stages Dumo has to guys to react to..both Quintana and Amador

Looks like that but it is forcing other teams to chase and so helping TD

 

[Gigs_98]

Before today I didn't even consider the possibility that nothing could happen on the Stelvio because that attack was such an obvious one.

And then you just had to turn on the TV, eh?

I guess that was a mistake, after all I wouldn't see attacks anyway

 

[DFA123]

Re:

See, the chasing group closed the gap to the duo... Similar fortune would find Quintana attacking on Stelvio.
Long drags...

Exactly. Too many riders at the start of the Stelvio, with too many teams prepared to work, meant a change of plan was necessary for Movistar. Even though its stage 16, I think most riders are still pretty fresh given how easy and slow most of the route has been so far.

 

[woodburn]

Is there a group between the leaders and the peleton or is that absorbed?

 

[rick james]

Bit windy in the valley???

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Are you aware that if Quintana attacks this group of 20 riders would be blown to pieces! Pinot, Nibali, Dumoulin and Zakarin would try to chase immidiately, there would not be an organized chase, no team would be capable to bring back Quintana at that point. The best thing to do was to attack on Stelvio, either he was afraid, or feeling bad. If he was playing smart, well it's a smart way to not win this Giro!

Well that would be the dream scenario. But Movistar obviously think the other riders are strong enough right now that it wouldn't pan out that way. Quintana is playing the long game; no need to waste energy to try to force something from 80km+ with another four mountain stages coming up. Obviously that's a bit annoying for us watching, but it certainly doesn't mean its a bad tactic imo.

Three mountain stages. I don't see where the fourth is coming from. He needs at least four and a half minutes. Attacking on the Umbrail will give him, if it goes well, maybe a minute. Three and a half from three mountain stages isn't easy, especially when one is Piancavallo and suited to Dumoulin, another doesn't have a hard penultimate climb and the last one is very short.

I guess he thinks that the cumulative effect is going to see Dumoulin crack at some point or another. We've seen quite a few times in recent GTs, that it's often far from the hardest mountain stages that deliver the decisive blow. The cumulative effect just catches up with some riders.

Hmm that argument only goes if they actually make the race hard for him, so far they have not done that.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He has three teammates up ahead ready to wait for him. They will easily distance a peloton with only a few tired helpers.

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

For Christ sake what gap would one Trek and one QS guy limit to Quintana?! He would give them 1min in 2-3km easily, even if Jungels and Mollema are working too!!! What Quintana needs is only 20-30 sec on Dumoulin, meybe even less, just to connect with his men upfront. Then it's a winning situation.

Did you see how easily Amador and Landa were pulled back in the valley? What exactly would Amador, Anacona and Quintana have been able to do against a group of ten or so favourites, who would inevitably join togethe on the descent? This is fantasy stuff that you're coming up with, not rooted in reality I'm afraid.

 

[46&twoWheels]

Eusebio Unzue just talked to Rai about Movistar's tactics. Hermetic poetry :lol:
(his italian was perfect though). I don't know if he is criptic by nature or their tactics are a mess

 

[alspacka]

Kind of embarrassing when Eros *** Capecchi pulls off the front after pulling the queen stage for 40km and everyone looks at each other like lost puppies.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

If Quintana does not attack is because he is not feeling very strong now!

I would attack with one leg if I was him, with 3 men up front and such deficit to Dumoulin. He doesn't have a heart of a champion...

Nairo has a history of not attacking until the last moment, this is no different. As much as everyone wants a Contador style raid through the mountains it will never happen with Nairo Quintana.

We've been through this. Every one of his grand tours wins he's gone from 50km+ out. I did the math last year during the Tour, but IIRC it now adds up to 4 of the last 6 GC attacks from 50km+out have been pushed by Nairo. This is a narrative completely devoid of facts.

His team was set up for an attack today. If he didn't go, it's because he didn't feel he had the legs. He's so effing aggresive he's riding without teammates at the moment, just so he can go on attack later. No one else does that. Not even Pantani did that. The real one, not the myth.

Tour 2015: meagre attack on the Col de la Croix de Fer on the wrong day. Threw away a title there.
Giro 2014: Fine
Vuelta 2016: doubt that without Contador that would've happened

Today he put teammates up the road, then didn't attack at the point where they'd probably be most useful.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

He has three teammates up ahead ready to wait for him. They will easily distance a peloton with only a few tired helpers.

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

For Christ sake what gap would one Trek and one QS guy limit to Quintana?! He would give them 1min in 2-3km easily, even if Jungels and Mollema are working too!!! What Quintana needs is only 20-30 sec on Dumoulin, meybe even less, just to connect with his men upfront. Then it's a winning situation.

Did you see how easily Amador and Landa were pulled back in the valley? What exactly would Amador, Anacona and Quintana have been able to do against a group of ten or so favourites, who would inevitably join togethe on the descent? This is fantasy stuff that you're coming up with, not rooted in reality I'm afraid.

So Quintana would rest behind his teammates while the other favorites are riding behind him and chase themselves. Sounds like a dream scenario to me

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Are you aware that if Quintana attacks this group of 20 riders would be blown to pieces! Pinot, Nibali, Dumoulin and Zakarin would try to chase immidiately, there would not be an organized chase, no team would be capable to bring back Quintana at that point. The best thing to do was to attack on Stelvio, either he was afraid, or feeling bad. If he was playing smart, well it's a smart way to not win this Giro!

Well that would be the dream scenario. But Movistar obviously think the other riders are strong enough right now that it wouldn't pan out that way. Quintana is playing the long game; no need to waste energy to try to force something from 80km+ with another four mountain stages coming up. Obviously that's a bit annoying for us watching, but it certainly doesn't mean its a bad tactic imo.

Three mountain stages. I don't see where the fourth is coming from. He needs at least four and a half minutes. Attacking on the Umbrail will give him, if it goes well, maybe a minute. Three and a half from three mountain stages isn't easy, especially when one is Piancavallo and suited to Dumoulin, another doesn't have a hard penultimate climb and the last one is very short.

I guess he thinks that the cumulative effect is going to see Dumoulin crack at some point or another. We've seen quite a few times in recent GTs, that it's often far from the hardest mountain stages that deliver the decisive blow. The cumulative effect just catches up with some riders.

Hmm that argument only goes if they actually make the race hard for him, so far they have not done that.

I think 220km and 5500m of climbing is going to take its toll on a lot riders, even if were just soft pedalled most of the way.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

He has three teammates up ahead ready to wait for him. They will easily distance a peloton with only a few tired helpers.

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

For Christ sake what gap would one Trek and one QS guy limit to Quintana?! He would give them 1min in 2-3km easily, even if Jungels and Mollema are working too!!! What Quintana needs is only 20-30 sec on Dumoulin, meybe even less, just to connect with his men upfront. Then it's a winning situation.

Did you see how easily Amador and Landa were pulled back in the valley? What exactly would Amador, Anacona and Quintana have been able to do against a group of ten or so favourites, who would inevitably join togethe on the descent? This is fantasy stuff that you're coming up with, not rooted in reality I'm afraid.

I very much doubt Jungels and Mollema would chase Quintana. They'll leave Dumoulin to do that, as their race is not for first.

 

[deValtos]

Armstrong has more testicals than Quintana.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He has three teammates up ahead ready to wait for him. They will easily distance a peloton with only a few tired helpers.

Well, I'm sure that will be the plan on the last climb. Why do it on the Stelvio when Dumoulin can still lean on Trek, FDJ and Quickstep to help limit any gap he can pull out? The whole point is to try to make Dumoulin follow Quintana to push him into the red. He doesn't need to if there is still a biggish peloton with several other teams prepared to work.

For Christ sake what gap would one Trek and one QS guy limit to Quintana?! He would give them 1min in 2-3km easily, even if Jungels and Mollema are working too!!! What Quintana needs is only 20-30 sec on Dumoulin, meybe even less, just to connect with his men upfront. Then it's a winning situation.

Did you see how easily Amador and Landa were pulled back in the valley? What exactly would Amador, Anacona and Quintana have been able to do against a group of ten or so favourites, who would inevitably join togethe on the descent? This is fantasy stuff that you're coming up with, not rooted in reality I'm afraid.

So Quintana would rest behind his teammates while the other favorites are riding behind him and chase themselves. Sounds like a dream scenario to me

Quintana, Amador and Anacona aren't going to hold off anyone on a longish valley section. And he would have wasted more energy to get away on the climb than the other favourites would have closing the gap on the flat.