Giro 2017, stage 16: Rovetta – Bormio 222 km

[klintE]

If I see Tom Dumoulin in pink in Bormio I finally start to belive in his overall win.
But that is not likely what will happen.
They will crack him down. The question is how hard.
(my guess is 2:30)

 

[Forever The Best]

This is the stage I expect all the hell to break loose after a boring first 2 weeks. Hoping that Nibali improves his form enough.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

This is the stage I expect all the hell to break loose after a boring first 2 weeks. Hoping that Nibali improves his form enough.

Have they been so boring tho? I think the riders have made more out of the stages than you could've expected so far. The design is very backloaded anyway, but take a look at the gaps in the GC - thats a pretty good sign that it has been a decent 2 first weeks before the grand finale.

 

[portugal11]

There will be 6 hours of epic race

 

[SlickMongoose]

Is this on TV from the start?

 

[staubsauger]

Landa, Quintana or Dombrowski!

 

[markene2]

Russian Kashechkin will win this bike race

 

[mikii4567]

When you have an A-Level exam at the same time as this, you know you're just not in luck...

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

So the question is can Tom Dumoulin hold on ...I guess since he held on on the Vuelta Andorra stage in 2015 (designed by Purito and won by Landa) which was imo harder than this.... I reckon he can....and if he does watch Quintana and Niabli begin to sweat

Held on is generous- he lost almost two minutes to Aru. This stage is far longer, less intense yes but far longer, and attacks only came on the last climb. Dumoulin is much better now, that's for sure, but Quintana is better than Aru

Well Quintana was behind Dumoulin on that day !
Of course situation is different but what it shows that on a multiple mountain top ( Andora was harder I think..all the riders at the time said it was the hardest stage they had done) its not easy to dislodge Dumoulin...and he is stronger and better prepared now

 

[Brullnux]

Quintana was behind because he was ill.

Stelvio looks extremely clean, no snow on the road and in fact very few snow walls for Kruijswijk to attempt to plough. Weather looks sunny for the next couple of days. Basically, we have been lucky with the weather and there is no chance of any cancellation or neutralisation or anything.

 

[huge]

Who knows if any of the GC guys had a chat for a common plan against Dumoilin on Tue.
A combined attack Nibali-Quintana-Pinot, working together to break the Dutch for good putting him definitely out of contention and postponing the showdown among themselves to a later stage.
Dumoilin will be soon isolated on Tue. That's his main big weakness. On a single final climb, that doesn't matter too much. But on a 220km stage? It could mean death warrant.

 

[Dukerojo]

If Movistar attacks early and gets an alliance, they could get 2 minutes on Dumoulin

 

[Cookster15]

I doubt Dumoulin will lose much time he looks far stronger than 2015 Vuelta and I think Nibali's quotes suggest he knows who
Is strongest and it isn't Nairo Quintana. Of course there will be attacks and it will be fascinating but if TD finishes close
It would be demoralising for Quintana. Go the pre race underdog!

 

[bambino]

I think Movi will try to get Amador into early break to ensure Sunweb burns all doms in the first climb of the day. And after that mano a mano. Current feeling is it will be all about Quintana and Dumoulin (maybe Landa and Zakarin in mix), expecting Nibs and Pinot loosing big time.

 

[Pentacycle]

Re:

Who knows if any of the GC guys had a chat for a common plan against Dumoilin on Tue.
A combined attack Nibali-Quintana-Pinot, working together to break the Dutch for good putting him definitely out of contention and postponing the showdown among themselves to a later stage.
Dumoilin will be soon isolated on Tue. That's his main big weakness. On a single final climb, that doesn't matter too much. But on a 220km stage? It could mean death warrant.

I dont see Nibali likely to coop with Quintana, because that means going against him head to head uphill. Essentially he would give up the victory with the high chance of Quintana also putting time in him again. I agree about Pinot, he would settle for the guaranteed podium spot.

 

[huge]

Not only Movistar. I also expect Bahrein-Merida trying to send a couple of riders up the road. Pellizzotti and Visconti. FDJ as well. Everyone except Dumoilin's team is interested in an early breakaway that could achieve two separate goals. Putting the Pink Jersey team under pressure and potentially isolating the Dutchman, and having teammates up the road ready to help in case the GC guys attack.

 

[Punter]

I think TD would be happy to let Amador into the break, there will be others who feel the need to chase him down before Sunweb would be threatened.

Going to be interesting to see what Astana do from here on - I was sure they were targeting the team comp to honour Scarponi but with only 7 riders that will be really tough.

 

[bambino]

Re:

Not only Movistar. I also expect Bahrein-Merida trying to send a couple of riders up the road. Pellizzotti and Visconti. FDJ as well. Everyone except Dumoilin's team is interested in an early breakaway that could achieve two separate goals. Putting the Pink Jersey team under pressure and potentially isolating the Dutchman, and having teammates up the road ready to help in case the GC guys attack.

Visconti probably indeed. He's been nowhere to be seen so far, maybe they've been saving him for the showdown of last week.

 

[Lexman]

Bart De Clercq for the win .... oh no he abandoned...


Monfort to get a top 25 place and shift to place 19 in the GC

 

[Durden93]

I don't buy the argument that a longer stage hurts Dumoulin more than a shorter one. Sure, a 220km stage with 4 climbs would probably be worse for him than a 150km stage with 3 climbs, but 220km with 3 vs 150km with 3? I doubt it. What I really think would trouble Dumoulin the most is multiple climbs with little flat in between, more kms means more flat in this stage. If Dumoulin is isolated, gets dropped and the other contenders hurt him, than their could be problems, but I don't think Tom will be dropped before the 2nd climb.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re:

When you have an A-Level exam at the same time as this, you know you're just not in luck...

I'm on plane!

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

When you have an A-Level exam at the same time as this, you know you're just not in luck...

I'm on plane!

I live in Canada so I have work Oh well, streams are good.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

This is where I think Tom will start bleeding time. The only saving grace for him is that the Canazei stage isn't that hard after the first half. A one-two punch with the Ortisei stage would have been lethal I think. Piancavallo seems to fit into the kind of stage that suits him. Basically one-climbers. There he can hang or even gain as we saw on Oropa.

Wonder if I'll be surprised though!

 

[Ricco']

Anton and Landa to rip apart the breakaway.

 

[Tank Engine]

This is going to be a crazy stage. Movi, Bahrain will be very keen to get riders in the break. The start is flat, so I can see that some teams might not be happy with the composition of the break and keep to gap down to provoke a reshuffle on the Mortirolo. Anyway, pretty much for sure Movi and Bahrain will have a couple of riders in front and hopefully FDJ too. Depending on how the Sunweb team is dealing with the situation, the main attacks will happen in the last few km of the Stelvio or early on the Umbrail. On such a parcours, only the strongest domestiques will be able to directly help their team leaders (beyond the initial workover on Sunweb), but Movi and Bahrain have a couple of these. Others have mentioned the Andorro stage in the 2015 Vuelta. It is not a perfect analogy. Dumoulin rode nearly all of that stage under the radar and time-trialled up the final climb limiting his losses to Aru. Now Dumoulin is stronger, but he is clearly the main opposition to anybody wishing to win the Vuelta and alliances of the moment may play a huge role (most likely Pinot and Quintana, Nibali's possible role seems more unclear). Anyway, my prediction is that Tom D loses 1-1:30 to Nairo.

In Andorra my advice to Tom D was to stay under the radar and use the rivalry between the other riders. Since this is now impossible for Tom D, this advice now goes to Landa. Getting into an early break is fine, but let the others fight it out before dealing the killing blow to win the stage.