Giro 2017, stage 16: Rovetta – Bormio 222 km

[Dukerojo]

Re:

How tough is the last descent anyways?
Can Nibs put some time into the likes of Pinot and Zakarin like that?

It has a part with a lot of curves, but after that it looks good.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Umb...1a003e3a433b06e!2m2!1d10.3740977!2d46.4637999

 

[Winnen]

The week of truth for big Tom! I expect Movistar to crack Sunweb this week. If they continue to pressure them, Tom will be isolated a lot in this week, and that is potentially disastrous. So even if Tom manages to hang on today, he will crack eventually this week. Will it be more than he can gain in the final TT? Hard to predict. But I will be very surprised if he starts the TT in the pink jersey.

Question. If Tom fails, how many minutes does NQ has to put into Nibs and Pinot to hold on during the final TT? Somehow I still feel this could go towards Nibs.

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

This is by far the best chance for Nairo, maybe even the only one as the other mountain stages are fairly easy for Giro standards. Nairo needs at least 3 minutes here.

How tough is the last descent anyways?
Can Nibs put some time into the likes of Pinot and Zakarin there?

He certainly can.

 

[movingtarget]

The GC will take a long stretch tomorrow as the gaps open up in the top 10. Should also provide a true indication of Nibali's form.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

Completely agree with this. Tomorrow is just the first part of a five act play. Of course, Quintana and Nibali can't afford to just soft pedal and say mañana, but gaining huge time is not so important tomorrow as pushing Dumoulin closer to the edge of cracking badly imo. In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

 

[fauniera]

Re:

I don't understand why for a stage like this there isn't the coverage from the start, going live at 13:05 (Raisport) and 13:15 (Eurosport) mean the probably we can't see the Mortirolo expecially if they start in a crazy way like last two stages.

German speaking Eurosport starts at 15:00...

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

It was the only multi mountain stage in the second half of the race and certainly one of the hardest stages of this Vuelta. The fact that it was a multi mountain stage was in my opinion way more important than the fact that is was the penultimate stage.

Stages like Piancavallo won't hurt Dumoulin much, as he has shown in Oropa. Don't forget the flat bit at the end of the Asiago stage, which will also help Dumoulin.

 

[Dukerojo]

Re:

I don't understand why for a stage like this there isn't the coverage from the start, going live at 13:05 (Raisport) and 13:15 (Eurosport) mean the probably we can't see the Mortirolo expecially if they start in a crazy way like last two stages.

Anyway i hope that Doumulin won't lose much time, if he mantain the lead there is an incentive for Quintana to attack in the coming stages, if Quintana will be in pink with margin tomorrow evening could be a borefest until Milano.

Yeah most likely we wont be able to watch Mortirolo. Anyone knows of a radio that is broadcasting the Giro?

 

[Pennino]

Re: Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

Completely agree with this. Tomorrow is just the first part of a five act play. Of course, Quintana and Nibali can't afford to just soft pedal and say mañana, but gaining huge time is not so important tomorrow as pushing Dumoulin closer to the edge of cracking badly imo. In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

Why don't people stop this story of him cracking at the Vuelta. He didn't crack, he came just as close as 10 seconds of Aru's wheel before he reached his Astana team mates just in time. Then it was a single-man Dumoulin against a whole train of fresh Astana men, who eventually even got help from Katusha and Tinkoff.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

It was the only multi mountain stage in the second half of the race and certainly one of the hardest stages of this Vuelta. The fact that it was a multi mountain stage was in my opinion way more important than the fact that is was the penultimate stage.

Stages like Piancavallo won't hurt Dumoulin much, as he has shown in Oropa. Don't forget the flat bit at the end of the Asiago stage, which will also help Dumoulin.

Ermita del Alba was also multi-mountain and harder than Cercedilla. But it was a MTF where everyone waited till the end so no significant gaps were made. In Cercedilla the race was split far from the finish, and in that situation the result depends on the relative strength (and coordination) of the leading and chasing groups. Just compare Mortirolo-Aprica 2010 to Finestre-Sestriere 2005.

 

[Dukerojo]

Re: Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

Completely agree with this. Tomorrow is just the first part of a five act play. Of course, Quintana and Nibali can't afford to just soft pedal and say mañana, but gaining huge time is not so important tomorrow as pushing Dumoulin closer to the edge of cracking badly imo. In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

Why don't people stop this story of him cracking at the Vuelta. He didn't crack, he came just as close as 10 seconds of Aru's wheel before he reached his Astana team mates just in time. Then it was a single-man Dumoulin against a whole train of fresh Astana men, who eventually even got help from Katusha and Tinkoff.

Althought I could agree that he didn't crack, he just didn't had a strong team as the other teams. Something that may happen again this year. Movistar have more Pure Climbers than Sunweb.

 

[King Boonen]

Don't worry, if it doesn't kick off on the Stelvio I'll ban Gigs for a couple of hours

 

[d-s3]

I hope I find some usable stream for this stage.
Idiots from Eurosport decided to air it only from 15.00.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Don't worry, if it doesn't kick off on the Stelvio I'll ban Gigs for a couple of hours

Lmao. Genuinely had a good laugh there.

We still get to see +4 hours tho, starting from the valley leading into Stelvio, its not that bad at all. I don't expect anything that meaningful do happen on this side of Mortirolo apart from teams throwing stage hunters, domestiques etc. into the break. Not that that can't be exciting to what.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

Both Nairo and Vincenzo need to gain minimum 2 minutes on Tom, or else, it will be difficult for them to win. I wonder how the forum will react if Vincenzo somehow ends in pink tomorrow.. Looking forward to this, even though I am working tomorrow, I will follow it on a stream

 

[Dukerojo]

Re:

I hope I find some usable stream for this stage.
Idiots from Eurosport decided to air it only from 15.00.

Most of the races are when I am at work, so I can't watch Eurosport, and believe or not, YouTube live has been my best friend

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

Completely agree with this. Tomorrow is just the first part of a five act play. Of course, Quintana and Nibali can't afford to just soft pedal and say mañana, but gaining huge time is not so important tomorrow as pushing Dumoulin closer to the edge of cracking badly imo. In the Vuelta, it was far from the hardest stage where he ultimately cracked, it was just the day where him pushing the limits of his recovery finally caught up with him.

Why don't people stop this story of him cracking at the Vuelta. He didn't crack, he came just as close as 10 seconds of Aru's wheel before he reached his Astana team mates just in time. Then it was a single-man Dumoulin against a whole train of fresh Astana men, who eventually even got help from Katusha and Tinkoff.

That's not really true; the 10 second gap wasn't really important. He said himself that he cracked.

“I lost the Vuelta already before, if I would’ve come back in the descent, I would’ve been dropped straight away on the next climb,” Dumoulin added.

“If I would’ve come back, that would’ve been nice, but that wouldn’t have saved my ride.”

Asked if he knew a bad day was coming on, he said, “I had an idea.” It is not clear when that idea came to him.

“I was just empty. Just no legs,” he said. “I just fought for what it was worth and I just had to deal with it.”

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/r...disappointed-with-vuelta-a-espana-loss-191371

 

[starlord]

Re: Re:

The Andorra stage at the Vuelta was raced far more conservatively. If Quintana ain't gonna attack on Stelvio he's a major goof and all those claims about him being the new Pantani were pure blasphemy.

Formolo needs to go berserk as well. Wouldn't be surprised if he attacks on Stelvio as well. Maybe with Dombrowski as relais station.

Also this is where Dombrowski, Foliforov & Hirt finally need to end their hibernation! If not they should be fired.

I really can't see Formolo and Hirt showing themselves to be honest. Both are aiming for Top 10 and Top 20 GC respectively and that probably requires more conservative riding rather than attacking and risk blowing up. They are currently edging their way up GC as planned.

Dombrowski and Foliforov have no such excuses however and most definitely need to start showing themselves now.

I vaguely reminisce about Hirt's interview for Czech newspapers, saying he wants top10 result in a stage, possibly from a breakaway.
Speaking of CCC, I was expecting more from Grossschartner. Any news on him, Gigs or any other Austrian?
Tomorrow is a big day. Quintana is the obvious winner. Pinot not to have his best day, loses podium only to fight and get it back in later stages. Yates to get to top10 GC. Zakarin will not crash. Dumoulin to lose some time, but not in terms of cracking and losing 5+ minutes, he keeps the jersey. For now.
GC after the stage:
1. Dumoulin
2. Quintana +1:08
3. Nibali +3:15
4. Zakarin +4:40
5. Pinot +5:30

 

[greenedge]

I'll go with Rolland to win the stage, his form seems to be great and his diesel engine will be well suited to the parcours.

 

[Chomsky]

The stage is hard enough that if Dumolin is having a bad day there is the potential that he loses significant time. But if continues to ride as he has it is doubtful he loses any time tomorrow. If Quintana were to take a gap over Dumolin the descent is technical enough for Dumolin to catch him.

Quintanas only chance is for Dumolin to be having a very bad day tomorrow. After tomorrow there are few opportunities for Quintana to catch up. 18 to 20 are not that hard. Tomorrow is Quintannas last stand. I would expect him to make tomorrow very hard. It should be quite a spectacle.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think even without GC shenanigans we'll see a very strong break with guys like Rolland and Landani looking for stages and Fraile wanting to get the mountain jersey. Landani might not try it from the break though, honestly when I saw him in Bergamo and Oropa in stages that weren't suited to him at all, I can totally see him simply being the best tomorrow in a stage that is perfectly suited to him and beating the GC guys without the need of an early break.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Don't worry, if it doesn't kick off on the Stelvio I'll ban Gigs for a couple of hours

Just do it as a pre-something-fancy-word-I-can't-remember thingy... (Yeah, my English fails).
I can just see it:

Gigs banned for six hours to ensure excitement on Stelvio stage.

 

[Ricco']

Mmm guys, even if you ban Gigs he could always see the race on TV or follow it online.

A more effective move would be to talk to his TV and internet provider to cut his access.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Don't worry, if it doesn't kick off on the Stelvio I'll ban Gigs for a couple of hours

Just do it as a pre-something-fancy-word-I-can't-remember thingy... (Yeah, my English fails).
I can just see it:

Gigs banned for six hours to ensure excitement on Stelvio stage.

A pre-emptive fun-enhancer?

 

[fauniera]

Re:

I think even without GC shenanigans we'll see a very strong break with guys like Rolland and Landani looking for stages and Fraile wanting to get the mountain jersey.

Keep in mind though that the first 60 km are flat, so climbers will have a hard time to get into the break. This could result in a thoroughly underwhelmiung group full of non-climbers. Of course i hope otherwise. Maybe we will see a second wave of attacks once the peloton hits Mortirolo.