Giro 2017, stage 16: Rovetta – Bormio 222 km

[capuldemetal]

well..40 minutes..you will miss the descent from mortirolo and about the false plat untill stelvio

 

[SafeBet]

Sunweb should put somebody in the early break. Whatever happens, a teammate will prove useful later in the stage.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

I think even without GC shenanigans we'll see a very strong break with guys like Rolland and Landani looking for stages and Fraile wanting to get the mountain jersey.

Keep in mind though that the first 60 km are flat, so climbers will have a hard time to get into the break. This could result in a thoroughly underwhelmiung group full of non-climbers. Of course i hope otherwise. Maybe we will see a second wave of attacks once the peloton hits Mortirolo.

I have never heard this theory. Interesting.

If climbers want to go in a break away they will go if they allowed. Simple as that had nothing to do with being a climber.

Anyway, there is no flat sections tomorrow FYI.

I'm surprised that you haven't at least head of this theory. As for there not being anything flat tomorrow, the first 50km start with a descent and then it's false flat. It's always easiest to attack where you are relatively strongest. Lots of people will want to get into the break for personal or tactical reasons and lots of teams won't want certain riders up the road. Hence, there will be a fight to get into the break. Ergo, rouleurs who want to get into the initial break will find it easier than climbers.

One example of this (not perfect, but illustrates the possibility of a second wave of attacks on the Mortirolo) is the short Pyrenean stage to Pla d'Adet in the 2014 Tour (won by Majka). The first 50-60km were flat, followed by 60km of ascent and descent. Rodriguez did not get into the initial break, but wanted to get into the break as he was fighting for the polka-pot jersey. Katusha controlled that break and then all hell broke loose on the first climb (obviously resulting in Rodriguez and Majka, the final winner of the stage and jersey, getting into the new break). Such tactics seem possible tomorrow, depending on the composition of the first successful break.

To make my previous predictions more precise, I think that the GC action will start towards the top of Stelvio. The gap on this stage between Dumoulin and Quintana could range from Dumoulin being just ahead to Quintana gaining the pink jersey after gapping Dumoulin on the Stelvio and receiving help from e.g. Amador and/or Izagirre who earlier infiltrated the break. This is easier said than done, but is possible. I think Tuesday's and Thursday's stages are the key stages, because to beat Dumoulin you cannot just chip away at his lead and these multi-mountain stages are the places to gain big against Tom D. My estimate of Tom D losing 1-1:30 is a sort of average over these scenarios, but also a wish for tension to remain in the GC competition. Landa to win

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

So... if I get off "work" at 13:00 and it takes me about 40 minutes to ride home... how much am I in the risk of missing?
I'm obviously gonna go as fast as my legs (and red lights) allow.

Not much, they will probably be at or around the foot of the first ascent of Stelvio which is where you need to start watching this stage.

 

[portugal11]

Guys, you are underestimating mortirolo even if they will ride from the easiest side, but still is 13 km at 7.5%... I really think movistar will put the hammer down here and the peloton will be reduced to 20 riders. Or may I be just dreaming?

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Guys, you are underestimating mortirolo even if they will ride from the easiest side, but still is 13 km at 7.5%... I really think movistar will put the hammer down here and the peloton will be reduced to 20 riders. Or may I be just dreaming?

This stage will be legendary. Quintana to ride 2 minutes away already on Mortirolo! :twisted:

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Guys, you are underestimating mortirolo even if they will ride from the easiest side, but still is 13 km at 7.5%... I really think movistar will put the hammer down here and the peloton will be reduced to 20 riders. Or may I be just dreaming?

Hopefully you are right. And don't forget the stretch from Edolo to Monno, where there's a few steep kilometers. The climb is closer to 17 km if you count them as well.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I think even without GC shenanigans we'll see a very strong break with guys like Rolland and Landani looking for stages and Fraile wanting to get the mountain jersey.

Keep in mind though that the first 60 km are flat, so climbers will have a hard time to get into the break. This could result in a thoroughly underwhelmiung group full of non-climbers. Of course i hope otherwise. Maybe we will see a second wave of attacks once the peloton hits Mortirolo.

I have never heard this theory. Interesting.

If climbers want to go in a break away they will go if they allowed. Simple as that had nothing to do with being a climber.

Anyway, there is no flat sections tomorrow FYI.

I'm surprised that you haven't at least head of this theory. As for there not being anything flat tomorrow, the first 50km start with a descent and then it's false flat. It's always easiest to attack where you are relatively strongest. Lots of people will want to get into the break for personal or tactical reasons and lots of teams won't want certain riders up the road. Hence, there will be a fight to get into the break. Ergo, rouleurs who want to get into the initial break will find it easier than climbers.

One example of this (not perfect, but illustrates the possibility of a second wave of attacks on the Mortirolo) is the short Pyrenean stage to Pla d'Adet in the 2014 Tour (won by Majka). The first 50-60km were flat, followed by 60km of ascent and descent. Rodriguez did not get into the initial break, but wanted to get into the break as he was fighting for the polka-pot jersey. Katusha controlled that break and then all hell broke loose on the first climb (obviously resulting in Rodriguez and Majka, the final winner of the stage and jersey, getting into the new break). Such tactics seem possible tomorrow, depending on the composition of the first successful break.

To make my previous predictions more precise, I think that the GC action will start towards the top of Stelvio. The gap on this stage between Dumoulin and Quintana could range from Dumoulin being just ahead to Quintana gaining the pink jersey after gapping Dumoulin on the Stelvio and receiving help from e.g. Amador and/or Izagirre who earlier infiltrated the break. This is easier said than done, but is possible. I think Tuesday's and Thursday's stages are the key stages, because to beat Dumoulin you cannot just chip away at his lead and these multi-mountain stages are the places to gain big against Tom D. My estimate of Tom D losing 1-1:30 is a sort of average over these scenarios, but also a wish for tension to remain in the GC competition. Landa to win

Top of the Stelvio is too late for Quintana, he needs to go strong with his team already on Mortirolo, and then full gas right from the bottom of Stelvio, hopefully Dumoulin will drop somewhere...

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

Top of the Stelvio is too late for Quintana, he needs to go strong with his team already on Mortirolo, and then full gas right from the bottom of Stelvio, hopefully Dumoulin will drop somewhere...

If you mean that the Mortirolo is the place where Movistar will start seriously implementing their plan, I agree. They should have a couple of guys down the road and on the Mortirolo start wearing down Sunweb.

If you think Quintana is going to come out to play on the Mortirolo, I don't agree. I expect that to occur in the third quarter of the Stelvio. Late enough for the peloton to have whittled down. Early enough to gain time before the summit.

Dumoulin is not going to just drop. Quintana will have to attack.

 

[Arked]

I don't want to be bad prophet but there is still possibility that the stage will be raced conservatively. If Quintana's form is not optimal there is no way Movistar will go nuclear because they might drop their own leader instead of Dumoulin.

 

[Winnen]

I only can watch the last hour of the race due to my work. I am seriously concerned that I will miss a spectacular part of the race. Movistar hammering the peloton from the Mortirolo onwards. And I expect SK to show himself. He seems to improve and cannot be happy with his 10th place at this moment.

Question. If Tom fails/cracks, how many minutes does NQ has to put into Nibs and Pinot to hold on during the final TT? Somehow I still feel this could go towards Nibs.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I don't want to be bad prophet but there is still possibility that the stage will be raced conservatively. If Quintana's form is not optimal there is no way Movistar will go nuclear because they might drop their own leader instead of Dumoulin.

That's a possibility. But we have Nibali and Pinot as well. All climbers have to be bad.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What's not ideal is that the stage comes just after a rest day. Dumoulin is usually quit good on those. I think thursday is the biggest chance to crack him. Tomorrow is more about putting the first real hurt in

 

[Kwibus]

Dumoulin will lose his jersey starting tomorrow. He might be stronger than 2015, but during that multi mountain stage to andorra he lost almost 2 minutes and everyone waited for the final climb. Just don't think he can handle this when they go all out early on.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

Also this is where Dombrowski, Foliforov & Hirt finally need to end their hibernation! If not they should be fired.

I've told you before (but you seem not to be aware or ignore it) - team doesn't wish Hirt to participate in any escape so far. Hardly they would fire rider who just follows orders.

Actually, I must've overlooked it pal. That surprises me to be honest. Ain't got much understanding for their tactics in that case. He was never gonna finish inside the top 10 because of the 2 tt's without going on the attack in the Alps. Well, they reach the Alps tomorrow -> Let's keep hope alive.

 

[Arked]

Re: Re:

I don't want to be bad prophet but there is still possibility that the stage will be raced conservatively. If Quintana's form is not optimal there is no way Movistar will go nuclear because they might drop their own leader instead of Dumoulin.

That's a possibility. But we have Nibali and Pinot as well. All climbers have to be bad.

It's not that they don't have to be bad. They have to be good/superb to really hurt Dumoulin. From what we saw to this day those guys were simply weaker on the climbs than Dumoulin. I'm really curious if high altitude and multiple consecutive climbs are enough to change the odds.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Apparently UK Eurosport will go live one hour earlier, that can probably be streamed, so throw Mortirolo into the mix.

 

[spalco]

According to steephill (whom I've never seen being wrong about this), earliest live pictures are at 12:30. Start of the race is at 10:30 and Mortirolo peak is at 84,5 km. So we should get a couple kms of ascent I think.

 

[Sibirn]

Re:

Apparently UK Eurosport will go live one hour earlier, that can probably be streamed, so throw Mortirolo into the mix.

Scandinavian Eurosport will also broadcast from 12.15

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin will lose his jersey starting tomorrow. He might be stronger than 2015, but during that multi mountain stage to andorra he lost almost 2 minutes and everyone waited for the final climb. Just don't think he can handle this when they go all out early on.

He lost 1'37 to the first gc rider, and a minute or less to everyone else. Dropped a few people as well that day. Dumoulin wasn't even bad that stage, the toughness just increased the gaps that were already there.

I think a lot may depend on Dumoulin's descending.

 

[sir fly]

Although 2015 Vuelta was Dumoulin's first GT opportunity, I wouldn't compare it to this Giro.
In 2015 he found himself in the position to win without planning to compete for the GC, we can say he and the team improvised for two weeks.
This time around he came to the race to win it..

 

[klintE]

Re:

Although 2015 Vuelta was Dumoulin's first GT opportunity, I wouldn't compare it to this Giro.
In 2015 he found himself in the position to win without planning to compete for the GC, we can say he and the team improvised for two weeks.
This time around he came to the race to win it..

On the other hand, no one has him as a real real jeopardy until he became a leader after stage 17
Maybe then he would be attacked earlier - like Quintana did this time on Blockhaus (and surely will be attacked tomorrow)

From what we saw to this day those guys were simply weaker on the climbs than Dumoulin.

On one climb, Oropa. But it was specific stage. Totally flat with one not very long climb.
As a curiosity. Removed ITT and time bonuses. Then gaps would have look like that:
Quinn
Dumo 6''
Pino 39'
Nibs 1'23''
Pozzo 1'42''
Bauke 2'05''
Zaka 2'07''

 

[Singer01]

I get home from work at 1700, the wife gets home at 2000, can I fast forward any boring bits or do I have to put my foot down and send her to the family room? I'm so excited, I think it's going to be one for the ages.

 

[Gigs_98]

Hardly ever there are stages where most people would be disappointed if the race doesn't already completely blow up with over 80 kilometers to go. For once the obvious outcome of a stage is race day of the year material, and some riders would actually be stupid if they don't go from a long way out. This just has to be great

 

[Red Rick]

action is guaranteed. suspense however, is not