Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 191 km

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

So how much does Pinot need on Dumoulin and Nibai tomorrow to bring to the TT to win

Maybe Tom was half right ...by watching him Pinot could take race from Nairo & Nibs but also from Dumoulin

Maybe this will be the karma

Pinot probably needs about 2 minutes at the least on those guys to have a legitimate shot, in my opinion. He's riding very strong right now and could conceivably attack tomorrow and gain that time he needs.

2 minutes?! He's no Purito in TTs.

He's also no Cancellara. He needs that time on Dumoulin, not so much Nibali.

How much do you think he needs?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

What a weird stage though.

Kruijswijk (3rd week doesn't seem to be there this year), Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad.
Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong.

Man even Mollema is only 2'40 behind now. Crazy.

I will say this though, if this was just a bad day by Dumoulin, and losing 1'20, then on a normal or good day tomorrow he won't lose much, if at all. He can still win it.

I don't understand why some people repeatedly say that Nibali and Quintana are, at this point, weaker than Pinot, Zakarin and co. To me it seems like anyone in the top 5, bar Dumoulin (whose fatique is starting to show) is very equal. Pinot made an attack 7km out today and managed to get silly 12 seconds on Quintana, while Zakarin and Pozzovivo barely got 6 seconds by their little stunt. How that amounts to "Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad. Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong" is beyond me.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

What a weird stage though.

Kruijswijk (3rd week doesn't seem to be there this year), Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad.
Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong.

Man even Mollema is only 2'40 behind now. Crazy.

I will say this though, if this was just a bad day by Dumoulin, and losing 1'20, then on a normal or good day tomorrow he won't lose much, if at all. He can still win it.

He's not done yet, unless he's completely cooked this should come down to his ability to hang on up Monte Grappa. The last climb doesn't look super hard, especially with the 15k of flat at the end.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Landa is so similar to pantani.

NOT!

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

What a weird stage though.

Kruijswijk (3rd week doesn't seem to be there this year), Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad.
Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong.

Man even Mollema is only 2'40 behind now. Crazy.

I will say this though, if this was just a bad day by Dumoulin, and losing 1'20, then on a normal or good day tomorrow he won't lose much, if at all. He can still win it.

He's not done yet, unless he's completely cooked this should come down to his ability to hang on up Monte Grappa. The last climb doesn't look super hard, especially with the 15k of flat at the end.

Dumoulin actually lost more time than expected in the easier sections of the final climb today, so it's no guarantee that he'll have it his own way on the flatter sections of the final climb tomorrow. I think it's also more to do with the accumulation of KM's from all the stages, not just today.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

What a weird stage though.

Kruijswijk (3rd week doesn't seem to be there this year), Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad.
Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong.

Man even Mollema is only 2'40 behind now. Crazy.

I will say this though, if this was just a bad day by Dumoulin, and losing 1'20, then on a normal or good day tomorrow he won't lose much, if at all. He can still win it.

I don't understand why some people repeatedly say that Nibali and Quintana are, at this point, weaker than Pinot, Zakarin and co. To me it seems like anyone in the top 5, bar Dumoulin (whose fatique is starting to show) is very equal. Pinot made an attack 7km out today and managed to get silly 12 seconds on Quintana, while Zakarin and Pozzovivo barely got 6 seconds by their little stunt. How that amounts to "Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad. Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong" is beyond me.

Well they have gainedwell over a minute in the last two stages. Sure, some of it was down to tactics, but Pinot rode for 6km+ on his own today on flatter gradients and still gained quite a few seconds on a group being paced by domestiques. He was easily the most impressive of the contenders today.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

What a weird stage though.

Kruijswijk (3rd week doesn't seem to be there this year), Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali all in varying degrees of bad.
Pinot, Zakarin and Pozzovivo strong.

Man even Mollema is only 2'40 behind now. Crazy.

I will say this though, if this was just a bad day by Dumoulin, and losing 1'20, then on a normal or good day tomorrow he won't lose much, if at all. He can still win it.

He's not done yet, unless he's completely cooked this should come down to his ability to hang on up Monte Grappa. The last climb doesn't look super hard, especially with the 15k of flat at the end.

Dumoulin actually lost more time than expected in the easier sections of the final climb today, so it's no guarantee that he'll have it his own way on the flatter sections of the final climb tomorrow. I think it's also more to do with the accumulation of KM's from all the stages, not just today.

That's right, we were talking about this before the big mountain stages began and Dumoulin looked invincible. The toll of multi mountain stages is tremendous to a rider of his stature, today should not have been a surprise to anyone. If he can bounce back tomorrow he'll be in the drivers seat but if he can't recover tonight he's screwed.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, if it's the accumulation of mountains, then him being the strongest yesterday makes no sense.

So i really don't believe that was the reason. I really do believe that what Dumoulin said is true, he simply had bad legs, he felt it from the start. And the fact that he had to go all out to rejoin the group didn't help either.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

Landa is a strong climber, I get it. He's terrible in the ITT. The fact that he was within a minute of Quintana just says he got lucky compared to ITT's in the past, but it doesn't mean he would have won the Giro if he didn't crash..

Landa has raced exactly one non-prologue TT ever as a GT team leader when he was uninjured and still riding for GC--last year's stage 9 TT in the Giro. He put in quite a respectable performance that day, finishing 20th, ahead of Kruijswick and Valverde, and just 7 seconds behind Nibali and 22 behind Dumoulin. This year he was coming off of a bad crash and was out the GC hunt, so had no reason to go all out in the TT.

Therefore, while he is clearly not a great TT rider, I think we just don't have enough information to say that he is terrible. In fact, the main relevant data point indicates that he is not.

 

[Ruby United]

Landa's recovery abilities are insanely strong.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

Landa is a strong climber, I get it. He's terrible in the ITT. The fact that he was within a minute of Quintana just says he got lucky compared to ITT's in the past, but it doesn't mean he would have won the Giro if he didn't crash..

Landa has raced exactly one non-prologue TT ever as a GT team leader when he was uninjured and still riding for GC--last year's stage 9 TT in the Giro. He put in quite a respectable performance that day, finishing 20th, ahead of Kruijswick and Valverde, and just 7 seconds behind Nibali and 22 behind Dumoulin. This year he was coming off of a bad crash and was out the GC hunt, so had no reason to go all out in the TT.

Therefore, while he is clearly not a great TT rider, I think we just don't have enough information to say that he is terrible. In fact, the main relevant data point indicates that he is not.

Okay, I'll give you that.

Cheers

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Landa's recovery abilities are insanely strong.

I actually read that as Landis the first time. No joke.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Landa is so similar to pantani.

NOT!

Exactly, he is way overrated
Landa was not even able to hang with main favourites on Sella Chianzutan, he was there only because nobody cares about him

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

two

 

[Carols]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 19: S.Candido/Innichen - Piancavallo 19

RAI showing that it was actually SUNWEB to split the peloton in the descend

ROTFL!!! Talk about sabotaging your own guy. I'm sure they didn't know he was near back chatting.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

I think what we are discovering here, particularly after the Tour last year, is that Quintana simply doesn't have the level of ability relative to his rivals that we all thought he did. He's an excellent climber but not significantly above quite a number of other not as good as Froome climbers. He has an edge perhaps on a Nibali or a Pinot or a bunch of others but he's not in a different tier. The part I'm less sure about is whether Nairo has actually regressed or if the climbing level of a number of others has improved while his is roughly the same. I suspect the latter.

I hope I'm wrong because if I'm right it's likely that Little Richie Porte is the closest thing Froome has to a challenger in the mountains

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

two

probably we differ in a 'canter' interpretation. so any gt taken without serious time losses is won at a canter by your standarts? I personally saw only 2 grand tours getting won really relatively easily. the 2011 giro and the 2014 tour.

 

[Andro]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

two

probably we differ in a 'canter' interpretation. so any gt taken without serious time losses is won at a canter by your standarts? I personally saw only 2 grand tours getting won really relatively easily. the 2011 giro and the 2014 tour.

2006 Giro says hi.

 

[Carols]

Well I think Pinot looks the freshest and he can TT!!! If Nibs can't win (but I'm still thinking he Will) I'd be fine with TiboPinot taking it.
Nibs, Pinot and Narito for the podium!

 

[dusty red roads]

Astana are leading the team classification by around 6 mins to Movistar, fingers crossed they win it and get a whole team win for Scarpa!

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

two

probably we differ in a 'canter' interpretation. so any gt taken without serious time losses is won at a canter by your standarts? I personally saw only 2 grand tours getting won really relatively easily. the 2011 giro and the 2014 tour.

2016 Tour as well.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Astana are leading the team classification by around 6 mins to Movistar, fingers crossed they win it and get a whole team win for Scarpa!

I think you were looking at the wrong page. Maybe team results of today only? In overall team classification Movistar is well ahead:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_dItalia_2017_Stage_19_Teams

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

This just highlights why he was rightfully the strong favourite. Because if he's on top form, he wins the race at a canter; and, if he's a long way from top form, he can still win the race.

how many grand tours quintana previously won 'at a canter'?

two

probably we differ in a 'canter' interpretation. so any gt taken without serious time losses is won at a canter by your standarts? I personally saw only 2 grand tours getting won really relatively easily. the 2011 giro and the 2014 tour.

Fair enough, by those standards he certainly hasn't won 'at a canter' yet. I'd add Quintana's two wins, Wiggins in 2012, Froome in 2013 and 2016 as well in the last few years. All of those wins were basically done and dusted I think by the time the last week started.

I think all of those riders could have won by more time if they had chosen to, but decided to just defend in the final few days instead. I think, based on what we've seen so far, that if Quintana came here with the form he had in the Vuelta last year, he'd be several minutes clear by now.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Froome must be laughing and laughing. Quintana will be exhausted. Also now, just as in the Tour last year, it no longer looks like Nairo is in the Froome tier of climber anyway.

Nairo is certainly not the climbing dream he used to be, can he be that by the Tour?

We'll find out but I think people are going to be disappointed.

He did look like this in the Tour last year though, and then was absolutely flying for the whole three weeks in the Vuelta. His form doesn't seem to follow the orthodox theory so much. Nor does Valverde's, so maybe its something in their preparation and training.

It is Unzue's theory that Nairo reacts better to riding two grand tours. He is better in the 2nd GT.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/qui...ur-de-france-but-im-not-a-level-below-froome/

He really wasn't that good last Vuelta, just everyone else comparatively was worse. Chaves was only four minutes off, Talansky seven.