Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 149 km

[BullsFan22]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

What does everyone think of Jungels' chances? How long will he hang on? If guys like Landa, Quintana, Nibali and even Zakarin, Pinot and Thomas attack and attack early and hard, can he hang on?

Same questions for Dumoulin as well.

 

[Squire]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

What does everyone think of Jungels' chances? How long will he hang on? If guys like Landa, Quintana, Nibali and even Zakarin, Pinot and Thomas attack and attack early and hard, can he hang on?

Same questions for Dumoulin as well.

I believe Dumoulin will be surprisingly good on the climbs, and that he could be a very dangerous man overall if he has kept his TT strength. I think he has been building very specifically towards the Giro, and that he'll be stronger than in Abu Dhabi and Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

Thomas to win the sprint to the line from a select group of 7 or so riders

 

[Netserk]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

Thomas to win the sprint to the line from a select group of 7 or so riders

Hi Sam, did Etna change much in terms of the market's assessment of the GC favorites' winning chances?

 

[johnymax]

Nibali to do better than Quintana. Jungels and Dumoulin to defend themselves pretty well.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Pinot will win tomorrow.

Pleaaaaase !!!

Two scenarii:

1. Conservative riding. Dumoulin in pink on Tuesday. Big mistake for the climbers: if you let him stick around, Tom will bite you hard in the rear.
2. The big hard stretch at 9% is raced hard, creams the GC group: Pinot, SK, Nairito, Nibbles and a couple more emerge. The final 5km become a WW1 battle. 2 minutes between winner and 15th.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

Pinot will win tomorrow.

Pleaaaaase !!!

Two scenarii:

1. Conservative riding. Dumoulin in pink on Tuesday. Big mistake for the climbers: if you let him stick around, Tom will bite you hard in the rear.
2. The big hard stretch at 9% is raced hard, creams the GC group: Pinot, SK, Nairito, Nibbles and a couple more emerge. The final 5km become a WW1 battle. 2 minutes between winner and 15th.

Do you mean no one wanting to attack for fear of being in no mans land or everyone will attack in order to put someone into it?

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Pinot will win tomorrow.

Pleaaaaase !!!

Two scenarii:

1. Conservative riding. Dumoulin in pink on Tuesday. Big mistake for the climbers: if you let him stick around, Tom will bite you hard in the rear.
2. The big hard stretch at 9% is raced hard, creams the GC group: Pinot, SK, Nairito, Nibbles and a couple more emerge. The final 5km become a WW1 battle. 2 minutes between winner and 15th.

Do you mean no one wanting to attack for fear of being in no mans land or everyone will attack in order to put someone into it?

I love this climb, but in recent memory, real attacks tend to be closer to the top. With such a tricky third week, I'm afraid that we see a waiting game, and when the tough stretch is over, way too many GC contenders still in play. Who will initiate the action? I don't know.

Pinot tried it at TA and got countered. And lost. Quintana is not as good as the 100% Quintana it seems. Nibali is bluffing IMO: he's not the '14 Nibali. The list goes on and on. Someone is going to gamble: Pinot? I hope so, but if it backfires, here's the "Pinot is overrated" stuff again. He looks good. I hope that he finds an ally or two, mainly Nibali and Quintana, make it a three horse race week 2.

No one will win the Giro tomorrow. But the list will shrink big time. You can't wait until the last 2km to try something though. Don't keep TD in the mix. Or Thomas: but then you have to put up with Mikel, and he's really good.

I feel that Tibopino will be in good shape tomorrow and end up top-3 in the GC. And take the pink jersey on Tuesday. How good is Quintana now? That is the question for me.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I don't think the gaps will be very big and then with the TT on Tuesday, it could all come back together or change anyway. If Quintana doesn't lead the GC guys in, then he is pacing himself/not in top form yet. There is no way any of the other riders should beat him on this climb (all things being equal, or course).

 

[movingtarget]

Quintana has a habit of starting slow in GTs and finishing strong but he has to show something here. The climb suits him better than anyone else.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

Thomas to win the sprint to the line from a select group of 7 or so riders

Hi Sam, did Etna change much in terms of the market's assessment of the GC favorites' winning chances?

No

 

[Tonton]

Re:

I don't think the gaps will be very big and then with the TT on Tuesday, it could all come back together or change anyway. If Quintana doesn't lead the GC guys in, then he is pacing himself/not in top form yet. There is no way any of the other riders should beat him on this climb (all things being equal, or course).

If the stage delivers, 1 to 15 gaps will be as much as 2 minutes. "All hings being equal", I don't know what you mean, but I used that once and hope we don't see mutant performances. That's for another forum though . As the #1 Pinot fanboy in this forum (carolina is a tough competition these days ), if the winning power formula is in the 6.1 range, Pinot ftw. He can do it. He'llbe there and silence his critics...for a while. Good descending today, huh?

 

[Jancouver]

Quintana will attack because he knows that he will lose several minutes to everyone on Tuesday.

The only question is how much time TJ will lose

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

I don't think the gaps will be very big and then with the TT on Tuesday, it could all come back together or change anyway. If Quintana doesn't lead the GC guys in, then he is pacing himself/not in top form yet. There is no way any of the other riders should beat him on this climb (all things being equal, or course).

If the stage delivers, 1 to 15 gaps will be as much as 2 minutes. "All hings being equal", I don't know what you mean, but I used that once and hope we don't see mutant performances. That's for another forum though . As the #1 Pinot fanboy in this forum (carolina is a tough competition these days ), if the winning power formula is in the 6.1 range, Pinot ftw. He can do it. He'llbe there and silence his critics...for a while. Good descending today, huh?

Just that if everyone was at 100%, no one should beat him on this climb. That said....there is a lot of time to be made up and lost in that 3rd week. He could still not look good tomorrow, drop a bunch of time on Tuesday, and still win easily if he comes good in week 3.

 

[spiritualride]

This climb is about the same in length and gradient as l'Alpe d'Huez.

 

[hfer07]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

So........

unless Landa starts the hostilities, I doubt any of the GC riders is going to try something daring & stick to it. It is very likely that all the main GC will end up sprinting or having a go 1/2 k to the finish line. If that's the case, then I'd favor a breakaway winner, worthy of his courageous effort & hunger for victory.

 

[AlexNYC]

Anyone expecting a huge Quintana attack will be disappointed, I'm afraid. There will be plenty of opportunities to shred the peloton in the third week, when strong attacks will yield far more time than at this point in the race. If a group with the main contenders is still together 5 km from the top, he'll probably put in a couple of digs just to gauge the strength of the others, but not much more. I still think Landa will do really well tomorrow.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Anyone expecting a huge Quintana attack will be disappointed, I'm afraid. There will be plenty of opportunities to shred the peloton in the third week, when strong attacks will yield far more time than at this point in the race. If a group with the main contenders is still together 5 km from the top, he'll probably put in a couple of digs just to gauge the strength of the others, but not much more. I still think Landa will do really well tomorrow.

If he is feeling good it would be silly not to attack. Quintana has mentioned before how he has to be more aggressive earlier in races. He should be making some time on inferior climbers in these stages.

 

[Tank Engine]

As for Landa's attack yesterday, I'll go for the "testing his legs" theory. I was going to pick Turbo Pinot for this stage (I still think he'll do very well, but I think Landa will attack today. If he's on top form, only a close to 100% Quintana will stay with him. I'll go with Landa, 7-8 guys within about a minute and then big gaps.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

This climb is about the same in length and gradient as l'Alpe d'Huez.

No, it's longer. The main climb is similar but there's about 10 km at 4% just before that. This is a nastier climb.

 

[Robert5091]

The guys with poor TT skills have to go early. If G & Landa cross the line doing high-fives I think the forum will explode!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

1. Zakarin
2. Kruijswijk +12
3. Quintana +12
4. Thomas +18
5. Nibali +28
6. Pinot +29
7. Landa +42
8. Pozzovivo +42
9. Formolo +46
10. Yates +54

62. Van Garderen +7'19

 

[meat puppet]

Re: Re:

Anyone expecting a huge Quintana attack will be disappointed, I'm afraid. There will be plenty of opportunities to shred the peloton in the third week, when strong attacks will yield far more time than at this point in the race. If a group with the main contenders is still together 5 km from the top, he'll probably put in a couple of digs just to gauge the strength of the others, but not much more. I still think Landa will do really well tomorrow.

If he is feeling good it would be silly not to attack. Quintana has mentioned before how he has to be more aggressive earlier in races. He should be making some time on inferior climbers in these stages.

Basically agree with both AlexNYC and movingtarget. Given the climb's characteristics, I think Quintana's gameplan will be to follow wheels and assess the situation first. As other posters have mentioned, I think other GC boys will be eager to attack. But if there are no attacks or the attacks do not stick, my bet is that Quintana will go on and set a strong pace but not full gas to at least wear the others out. Some might get dropped too. The third week is his playground.

Funny enough, I am expecting action, even though this is the most boring kind of a Vuelta stage.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

Pinot will win tomorrow.

Pleaaaaase !!!

Two scenarii:

1. Conservative riding. Dumoulin in pink on Tuesday. Big mistake for the climbers: if you let him stick around, Tom will bite you hard in the rear.
2. The big hard stretch at 9% is raced hard, creams the GC group: Pinot, SK, Nairito, Nibbles and a couple more emerge. The final 5km become a WW1 battle. 2 minutes between winner and 15th.

3. Zakarocket goes right from the bottom of the climb. Hammers it in the big ring. Wins one minute today and about 2-3 minutes on Tuesday (on Quintana) making it 1994 all over again!

 

[Orbit501]

Re: Giro 2017, stage 9: Montenero di Bisaccia - Blockhaus 14

I'm managing my hopes and expectations, so all I hope for is...
Forza Formolo!

Oh, and Tibopinot launching when all the GC lot start looking at each other.