Giro 2019 Field Discussion/Speculation

[Gigs_98]

The question of whether Froome is declining is a very interesting one though. I'd argue he has been declining ever since 2015 (despite his winning margin of the 2015 being smaller than in any other year but I'd simply argue he hasn't had an opponent as serious as 2015 Quintana). Maybe he was still at his best in 2016 but especially from 2017 onwards it became striking that he basically became unable to drop his opponents uphill and he only won gt's by being strong in the TT's and very consistent. The Zoncolan stage mentioned before was impressive but really nothing compared to his best climbing performances in 13 and 15. On the Zoncolan there were 6 riders within 42 seconds, in the 2013 tour de france he was over 50 seconds in front of Porte on Ax 3 Domaines with everyone else being over a minute down. 2015 he did exactly the same again on LPSM. Aside from the much bigger time gaps the climbs (especially Ax 3) also were significantly easier. I don't think Froome is finished (I'd actually say he would be the favorite for the tour no matter the opponent) but I very much doubt at age 34 considering the results from previous years he will be as strong as he has been in the past.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Last season muddied the waters somewhat, but from 2015-17 he did similar schedule and the decline in performances was evident, specially between 2016 and 17. That he won the Tour-Vuelta double in the later year was as much down to luck as it was to his own strenght. Based on last season, he still has the ability to pull off ridiculous single day performances that are out of line with the development of his general form curve during his first GT. As such he will definitely be a favourite for next years Tour. No doubt he'll pull out all stops to get the 5th.

On topic, really a great quality field is shaping up for this Giro. Hopefully all those riders reach the startline in Bologna in May and be in great shape too.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

Last season muddied the waters somewhat, but from 2015-17 he did similar schedule and the decline in performances was evident, specially between 2016 and 17. That he won the Tour-Vuelta double in the later year was as much down to luck as it was to his own strenght. Based on last season, he still has the ability to pull off ridiculous single day performances that are out of line with the development of his general form curve during his first GT. As such he will definitely be a favourite for next years Tour. No doubt he'll pull out all stops to get the 5th.

On topic, really a great quality field is shaping up for this Giro. Hopefully all those riders reach the startline in Bologna in May and be in great shape too.

Yes.

 

[May0maniac]

Alright, time to bring the discussion back on track.
According to the team this should be the team supporting Roglic durning the Giro:
Gesink, Tolhoek, De Plus, Martens, De Tier, Van Emden and Bouwman
Source: https://www.teamjumbovisma.com/video/news/roglic-aims-for-pink-jersey-in-giro/

 

[Red Rick]

Solid team.

But then again

Jumbo Visma tactics will work in mysterious ways

 

[tobydawq]

Interesting that they select their rosters this early. Last week they named five riders who had secured their Tour spit.

This seems quite smart.

I remember Brian Vandborg telling how he needed to time his form for May and June so he could perform well there and then be selected for the Tour where his form of course wouldn't be nearly as good.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I remember Brian Vandborg telling how he needed to time his form for May and June so he could perform well there and then be selected for the Tour where his form of course wouldn't be nearly as good[.

I can't even.

That's one of the basic stupidest thing I've heard in cycling.

And that includes Oscar Freire stories.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I remember Brian Vandborg telling how he needed to time his form for May and June so he could perform well there and then be selected for the Tour where his form of course wouldn't be nearly as good[.

I can't even.

That's one of the basic stupidest thing I've heard in cycling.

And that includes Oscar Freire stories.

Well, thats how it it on many teams im quite sure. At least for the fringe riders.

I also remember how CSC in the early wildcard-days were running on fumes in the Tour since they needed great results throughout the year. But thats obviously another thing. Coming to the Tour on a downward trajectory and being fatigued really is a recipe for disaster. You literally cannot do anything I think, at least when you aren't that good to begin with. But you can say to your grandkids that you did it!

Rogla should love these time trials. Damn the Giro is going to be great.

 

[Valv.Piti]

So we got:

Dumo
Nibs
Rogla
Landa
Lopez
Bernal
Si Yates
The three amigos Valv, Landa and Carapaz

Majka, Mas, Zaka (any links?)

Amazing

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

So we got:

Dumo
Nibs
Rogla
Landa
Lopez
Bernal
Si Yates
The three amigos Valv, Landa and Carapaz

Majka, Mas, Zaka (any links?)

Amazing

4/6 riders who rode podiums in GTs last year.

Froome, Thomas and Kruijswijk the only riders who rode top 5 in a GT last year who won't be at the Giro.

 

[Gigs_98]

[quote="<span class="skimlinks-unlinked">Valv.Piti</span>":1q6e2hmn]So we got:

Dumo
Nibs
Rogla
Landa
Lopez
Bernal
Si Yates
The three amigos Valv, Landa and Carapaz

Majka, Mas, Zaka (any links?)

Amazing

4/6 riders who rode podiums in GTs last year.

Froome, Thomas and Kruijswijk the only riders who rode top 5 in a GT last year who won't be at the Giro.[/quote]
That's just insane

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Alright, time to bring the discussion back on track.
According to the team this should be the team supporting Roglic durning the Giro:
Gesink, Tolhoek, De Plus, Martens, De Tier, Van Emden and Bouwman
Source: https://www.teamjumbovisma.com/video/news/roglic-aims-for-pink-jersey-in-giro/

A lot of climbers.

Not much will be left for the Tour so Kruijswijk will likely be a little undersupported in his TdF campaign but that's understandable after what Groenewegen has shown this year.
No Giro for Danny Van Poppel. No trust or will they include him in Groenewegen's train for TdF?

 

[yaco]

Surely Astana should switch Lopez to the TDF - The Giro doesn't play to his strengths, while if he got everything right at the TDF, especially the TTT, then a podium is a possibility

 

[hfer07]

Are we witnessing the best field ever assembled for a GT?

OMG Next year's Giro already looks amazing so far

 

[Valv.Piti]

Are we witnessing the best field ever assembled for a GT?

OMG Next year's Giro already looks amazing so far

We arent as the Tour have had better fields lately tho, just take the two last years for example. Then you obviously have people not in peak shape, crashing out etc., but we dont know if that happens next year in the Giro either.

 

[Simurgh]

Are we witnessing the best field ever assembled for a GT?

OMG Next year's Giro already looks amazing so far

It really does! Looking so much forward to it. And I feel, that for the big part of the riders, they WANT to ride the Giro, instead of avoiding the Tour (even though there will always be arguments for that case, because of SKY dominance).

But yeah, in recent times I think only Tour 2015 (The Big 4 + Valverde. Besides a young Bardet, Pinot the year after his TdF podium, TJ when he was reasonably good etc.) tops it.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Are we witnessing the best field ever assembled for a GT?

Please.

 

[movingtarget]

The question of whether Froome is declining is a very interesting one though. I'd argue he has been declining ever since 2015 (despite his winning margin of the 2015 being smaller than in any other year but I'd simply argue he hasn't had an opponent as serious as 2015 Quintana). Maybe he was still at his best in 2016 but especially from 2017 onwards it became striking that he basically became unable to drop his opponents uphill and he only won gt's by being strong in the TT's and very consistent. The Zoncolan stage mentioned before was impressive but really nothing compared to his best climbing performances in 13 and 15. On the Zoncolan there were 6 riders within 42 seconds, in the 2013 tour de france he was over 50 seconds in front of Porte on Ax 3 Domaines with everyone else being over a minute down. 2015 he did exactly the same again on LPSM. Aside from the much bigger time gaps the climbs (especially Ax 3) also were significantly easier. I don't think Froome is finished (I'd actually say he would be the favorite for the tour no matter the opponent) but I very much doubt at age 34 considering the results from previous years he will be as strong as he has been in the past.

i'd agree with most of that although I think it was more noticeable from 2016 but then he did the double in 2017 which might say more about his Vuelta opposition where Contador did really well although probably motivated more than others to do so being his final race. I don't think Froome's TT has deteriorated much if at all but the climbing attacks disappeared pretty quickly in 2016. He started riding more conservatively in the mountains and he could afford to with some of his best climbing opposition being on his own team. I think it was also a reaction to the third week fade where riders like Quintana were making up ground in the third week after Froome would make most of his time in the first two weeks then try to protect his lead and rely on the TT to consolidate. Tactically in that period I think he improved but it was also about trusting his team and it's strength to overcome any moments of weakness.

The 2018 Giro coup had more to do with race circumstances and falls early in the race, impressive nonetheless but Dumoulin will probably see the Giro as a race that slipped out of his hands. While not impossible I think by the time of the 2020 season Froome's grand tour winning ways will be over. Records are made to be broken but not many grand tours are won past the age of 34 even by great riders. You also have to look at Froome's opposition. Quintana who looked like being his heir in 2015 has underachieved and pretty much gone backwards as far as being a major Tour threat. The 2017 Giro win by Dumoulin wasn't flattering for Quintana or Nibali but Dumoulin now seems to be tougher opposition to Sky than the other two.The arrival of Yates and Thomas as GT winners also shows that things are beginning to change with the pecking order of the best grand tour riders. Roglic, Mas and Bernal also look like likely future GT winners. Riders like Landa, Aru and others look like second tier GT contenders now.

 

[Red Rick]

At this point, Nibali is a pretty big question mark, in terms of what he can do for me. 2017 Giro was clearly not up to standard, and he didn't hit his full peak last year until the Italian fall season, then this year he crashes out the main target of the season.

Whatever. Of all riders, I think Nibali is the most likely to pull shenanigans if it comes to that, and if he doesn't win he might as well reshape the landscape a lot.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

At this point, Nibali is a pretty big question mark, in terms of what he can do for me. 2017 Giro was clearly not up to standard, and he didn't hit his full peak last year until the Italian fall season, then this year he crashes out the main target of the season.

Whatever. Of all riders, I think Nibali is the most likely to pull shenanigans if it comes to that, and if he doesn't win he might as well reshape the landscape a lot.

I agree. Nibali is a huge question mark. We have no idea which Nibali we'll see. We don't know how he's recovered from the injuries at the Tour last summer. (I'm still of the opinion he can back too soon to try to be ready for the Worlds). He, much like Conatdor, will give everything he has and will pull something that will help to determine the final outcome of the GC standings.

 

[Tim Booth]

Re: Re:

At this point, Nibali is a pretty big question mark, in terms of what he can do for me. 2017 Giro was clearly not up to standard, and he didn't hit his full peak last year until the Italian fall season, then this year he crashes out the main target of the season.

Whatever. Of all riders, I think Nibali is the most likely to pull shenanigans if it comes to that, and if he doesn't win he might as well reshape the landscape a lot.

I agree. Nibali is a huge question mark. We have no idea which Nibali we'll see. We don't know how he's recovered from the injuries at the Tour last summer. (I'm still of the opinion he can back too soon to try to be ready for the Worlds). He, much like Conatdor, will give everything he has and will pull something that will help to determine the final outcome of the GC standings.

10 December
""It was a very good season with the victory at the Milan-Sanremo. Then at the Tour I broke a thoracic vertebra and the situation changed to negative. It takes no less than 4-5 months to fully recover from an injury like this. Now I think I managed to recover completely."
https://www.ilmessaggero.it/sport/altrisport/nibali_il_ciclismo_hi_tech_per_battere_la_noia-4161784.html

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

At this point, Nibali is a pretty big question mark, in terms of what he can do for me. 2017 Giro was clearly not up to standard, and he didn't hit his full peak last year until the Italian fall season, then this year he crashes out the main target of the season.

Whatever. Of all riders, I think Nibali is the most likely to pull shenanigans if it comes to that, and if he doesn't win he might as well reshape the landscape a lot.

I agree. Nibali is a huge question mark. We have no idea which Nibali we'll see. We don't know how he's recovered from the injuries at the Tour last summer. (I'm still of the opinion he can back too soon to try to be ready for the Worlds). He, much like Conatdor, will give everything he has and will pull something that will help to determine the final outcome of the GC standings.

10 December
""It was a very good season with the victory at the Milan-Sanremo. Then at the Tour I broke a thoracic vertebra and the situation changed to negative. It takes no less than 4-5 months to fully recover from an injury like this. Now I think I managed to recover completely."
https://www.ilmessaggero.it/sport/altrisport/nibali_il_ciclismo_hi_tech_per_battere_la_noia-4161784.html

However, until he starts racing again we won't know for sure.

 

[Nirvana]

If Nibali will decide to come to the Giro not at 100% because of the easy first 12 days i can see him being stronger in France than in Italy because looks like he need really a lot of time to hit the peak shape. Look at 2017, theoretically he scheduled his second peak for the Vuelta (and at the Vuelta you need to be ready from the start) but a month after Vuelta has ended he was clearly stronger and he won the Lombardia with ease.

Anyway i agree with the fact that we don't know if he has really recovered at 100%, the Nibali seen at the Lombardia was way better that the Vuelta's one but wasn't anywhere close to his best.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't really doubt Nibali recovered fully from his back injury. I think he's a question mark more because it will be 3 years since he last really had a top performance in a GT.

If only something silly like the Cordal crash wouldn't have happened, then I think we'd have a better idea now.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

I don't really doubt Nibali recovered fully from his back injury. I think he's a question mark more because it will be 3 years since he last really had a top performance in a GT.

If only something silly like the Cordal crash wouldn't have happened, then I think we'd have a better idea now.

Just forgetting his silly remarks about Froome in 1st week of last July - I must admit he was a great champion who was able to complete all GT wins. Really great rider. But I'm afraid he's over.
I would prefer to watch him competing with Froome, Thomas, S. Yates or Dumo. It would be just great for cycling. But it will not happen.