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Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 24, Stage 10: Pompei – Cusano Mutri (Bocca della Selva), 142.0k

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It is today and Sunday UAE realistically has to put in work, if they want/need to.

Other days will go easy or sprinter teams doing work. ITT where only Bjerg will ride for a good result, outside of Pog.

They could ride at a decent pace and keep the break at 2-3 minutes. Another potential stage-win up for grabs.

But if only riders +10 minutes in the break and they might sit up, who knows.
 
I expect the shortened stage 15 to be really easy to control. And Grappa is really easy to control as well.

I don't think there was enough talk about just how terrible the breakaway worked together on stage 8, but then maybe agent Quintana will terrorize the breakaway once again
Is stage 15 getting changed too or do you mean stage 16? If you mean the former Stelvio stage, I agree, but UAE might not make plans based on a stage they don't know yet. I also agree about Grappa and am pretty sure Pogacar wants that stage. But even if he gets that stage I would guess Pogacar would like to win more than four stages and today is probably the most obvious opportunity to get another one. Pogi really likes his GT stage wins.
 
Excluding the illness-riddled 2020 and 2023 editions, this is the highest number of dropouts at this point in the race since 2014 as per PCS. If you factor in those two years, though, it's barely above the average for the past 10 years.

Edit: I should probably be factoring in the decline in team size from 2018 onwards, but don't have the time right now.

No dropouts in 2012 until stage 6, and in the 2022 Tour, nobody dropped out in the first three stages either.

Denmark must be the safest country to ride Grand Tours in.
 
Kooij and Vernon DNS
Ok might be a bit deep but I just don't see why Kooij wouldn't start as this is his first grand tour and he wasn't likely to get another opportunity soon. Especially if there is 2 sprint stages on Wednesday/Friday for him. I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Vingegaard? If Vingegaard can't go to the Tour, they might well bring Kooij to win some stages potentially. So maybe he is dropping out because Vingo can't make the Tour and so he might be riding that and needs to prepare. Is this stupid logic?