Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 6: Caltanissetta - Etna 164 km

[Salvarani]

Re:

Portal's comments suggest that Sky are focusing more on TdF then the Giro.

Edit - then again if Tommy D was not here, Froome would still be the favorite to win.

I for one like a GT when Sky is not killing the race...

But even the selection of the team seems weak to me. Neither De La Cruz or Poels, like Froome, seem to be in form either. We gonna see after today tho.

 

[Blanco]

I expect Astana train right from the beginning, then Lopez attack on the hardest part (5km from the finish). Mitchelton Scott holds the key of this stage I think. If they decide to chase Lopez and whoever tries to go with him, they will catch them, and then the big guns will decide the outcome (probably Yates vs Pinot, or some late attacker). But if they decide not to chase and send someone up the road instead (most likely Nieve, or maybe even Chaves), I think no other team could bring that back. Pozzo will also try something, but I think not earlier than 3km to go.

Dumoulin will hold, Froome will bleed.

 

[DFA123]

Froome is currently 20/1 to win the stage - that seems incredibly long odds for a guy who, when on top form, is probably the best climber in the world. It wasn't so long ago that he was putting over a minute on the best climbers in the world on the first mountain stage of a GT. And now he's lower odds than Woods and Bennett. I hope not, but fear that he may be getting written off a bit too soon.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Froome is currently 20/1 to win the stage - that seems incredibly long odds for a guy who, when on top form, is probably the best climber in the world. It wasn't so long ago that he was putting over a minute on the best climbers in the world on the first mountain stage of a GT. And now he's lower odds than Woods and Bennett. I hope not, but fear that he may be getting written off a bit too soon.

I'd lay those odds and be happy about it.

And if it's up to Dumoulin I think he'll want to put the hurt on Dennis if that opportunity presents itself.

 

[Oliwright]

(Let me premise this by saying I think TD will win the giro)

Way too many people are writing off the guy who won 4 out of the last 5 Tours and the last 2 GTs.
On average Froome's won his GTs by over 2.5 mins and he's only 55 seconds down atm. Which he lost after a crash and if you look at the footage he was held up on stage 4 in the crash.

Nevertheless, he doesn't look to be at 100% atm, but those predicting the most dominant GT rider of this era to lose the entire race, before we've even properly seen how he's performing, is plain stupid.

I don't think he'll win the race, but he's still widely considered the favorite or 2nd favorite and he deserves a bit more respect at this stage.
Another thing worth considering is that Team Sky have been **** so far, there are so many occasions when Froome has clearly been isolated and for a star-studded team as this, they've been shocking so far.

Froome is still a better climber than TD, and even if he stays level with TD today or loses some time, the race will come down to the Final Week!

 

[cellardoor]

I guess that Sky will try to control things in their normal way to try and prevent attacks. But with the likes of Yates, Pozzo, Pinot and Chavez looking in good form, I think they'll be eager to attack with around 5k to go. Perhaps Froome will shown weakness and Dumoulin will decide to just set a strong pace to try and maximise the advantage, knowing that the likes of Yates will probably skip away right at the end and collect pink.

 

[Merckx index]

I really think that if Etna is ridden relatively hard Froome will lose every chance to win the giro tomorrow. This just looks too much like Contador in the 2016 tour. Somehow there seems to be less discussions about Froome's potential injury than about Contador's potential injury back then (not just in this forum, but also by the media which seems to be convinced Froome will be back at his best very soon. I'm definitely not) but todays stage imo was just another display of Froome's weakness. Froome in half decent doesn't slip back in the peloton on the final ramp. There were no splits in the group so he finished same time, but really, that didn't have anything to do with him getting better. He once again looked bad and I just don't see him looking better tomorrow.

Yeah, really agree, I mentioned this in one of the other Giro threads after the ITT. I thought, though, that Contador crashed when the TDF was in seriously hilly stages, and he couldn't keep up. I went back and checked the situation, and hadn’t realized that Contador crashed so early—on both stage 1 and 2—and that he hung on so long: he abandoned on stage 9. I think of crashes as either taking riders out very quickly, or not at all, but clearly that doesn't have to be the case. Contador had flat stages to deal with till stage 5, and there wasn't a serious climb till stages 7 and 8. Both of those ended in descents, but the climbing before clearly took too much out of him. Stage 8 in particular would have been a killer, with 1 HC, two Cat 1s, and one Cat 2.

Froome's situation seems very reminiscent of Contador's, with several mostly flat stages before any serious climbing. It looks a little easier, though, with just Etna and stage 8 before a rest day, and neither of those stages i think is as demanding as stage 8 in the 2016 TDF. We shall see.

 

[DFA123]

I really think that if Etna is ridden relatively hard Froome will lose every chance to win the giro tomorrow. This just looks too much like Contador in the 2016 tour. Somehow there seems to be less discussions about Froome's potential injury than about Contador's potential injury back then (not just in this forum, but also by the media which seems to be convinced Froome will be back at his best very soon. I'm definitely not) but todays stage imo was just another display of Froome's weakness. Froome in half decent doesn't slip back in the peloton on the final ramp. There were no splits in the group so he finished same time, but really, that didn't have anything to do with him getting better. He once again looked bad and I just don't see him looking better tomorrow.

Yeah, really agree, I mentioned this in one of the other Giro threads after the ITT. I thought, though, that Contador crashed when the TDF was in seriously hilly stages, and he couldn't keep up. I went back and checked the situation, and hadn’t realized that Contador crashed so early—on both stage 1 and 2—and that he hung on so long: he abandoned on stage 9. I think of crashes as either taking riders out very quickly, or not at all, but clearly that doesn't have to be the case. Contador had flat stages to deal with till stage 5, and there wasn't a serious climb till stages 7 and 8. Both of those ended in descents, but the climbing before clearly took too much out of him. Stage 8 in particular would have been a killer, with 1 HC, two Cat 1s, and one Cat 2.

Froome's situation seems very reminiscent of Contador's, with several mostly flat stages before any serious climbing. It looks a little easier, though, with just Etna and stage 8 before a rest day, and neither of those stages i think is as demanding as stage 8 in the 2016 TDF. We shall see.

If Froome is suffering from the effects of a crash, is it possible that this stage could actually suit him quite well? A pretty easy stage for the most part, finishing with a 40 minute effort at threshold, may be significantly easier for a rider with stiff joints and some muscle bruising, than a much more punchy stage with lots of anaerobic efforts (like the last two days).

 

[HelloDolly]

Dumoulin is no fool ...he will not do soemthing as he doesnt need to
The only one he is watching is Froome as he is his big threat ....
He wont want the pink from Dennsi just yet but he will want to but the hurt into Froome if he smels weakness
Ideal for him would be Pozzo to get the jersey if they attack Froome
Not sure about M Scott as they have best team by a mile and 2/3 contenders ...Dumoilin has to be careful of them too
Pinot is my dark horse fro the overall

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Unfortunately, headwind is expected in the hard part with 5 km to go.

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

Unfortunately, headwind is expected in the hard part with 5 km to go.

Wind dance to reverse this?

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Unfortunately, headwind is expected in the hard part with 5 km to go.

According to Tiralongo that section is still in the trees and wind doesnt play much of a role. Lets hope its true.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Froome is currently 20/1 to win the stage - that seems incredibly long odds for a guy who, when on top form, is probably the best climber in the world. It wasn't so long ago that he was putting over a minute on the best climbers in the world on the first mountain stage of a GT. And now he's lower odds than Woods and Bennett. I hope not, but fear that he may be getting written off a bit too soon.

I'd lay those odds and be happy about it.

And if it's up to Dumoulin I think he'll want to put the hurt on Dennis if that opportunity presents itself.

I don't think much attention is being paid to Dennis. He will be expected to collapse in his first serious attempt at a GT. A top 10 overall for him would be a great result. If Dennis can hold onto pink on Etna it will be a good effort but the race gets much harder later. If he rides strongly for two weeks and fades in the third week BMC will have some questions answered and can build on that or make decisions about his performance. Dumoulin staying within reach of the Pink is better at the moment for him than taking the pink jersey. The gap on Lopez and Froome is much more important than Dennis. Lopez won't make that time up now but he could win a few stages. Yates is the other rider that is well placed in relation to his rivals for GC. There will be plenty of attacks anyway and if Froome shows any weakness Dumoulin won't have a choice. If Froome looks comfortable that can only help Dennis.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin is no fool. Which means he likely be aggressive if it's the right call, and I think Dumoulin has a history of being very aggressive when he has the legs.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Unfortunately, headwind is expected in the hard part with 5 km to go.

https://www.google.com/maps/@37.6946267,14.9554654,3a,62.7y,160.08h,90.19t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAF1QipP7fUfAbLO4NVMYy8RSmvXf1oj-5tBAmAw1-5C3!2e10!3e12!7i7200!8i3600

It's only the very end that is out of the trees (the last ~2.5km). Anyway, from what I've seen the wind expected in the end is a negligible 4km/h.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Froome is currently 20/1 to win the stage - that seems incredibly long odds for a guy who, when on top form, is probably the best climber in the world. It wasn't so long ago that he was putting over a minute on the best climbers in the world on the first mountain stage of a GT. And now he's lower odds than Woods and Bennett. I hope not, but fear that he may be getting written off a bit too soon.

I'd lay those odds and be happy about it.

And if it's up to Dumoulin I think he'll want to put the hurt on Dennis if that opportunity presents itself.

I don't think much attention is being paid to Dennis. He will be expected to collapse in his first serious attempt at a GT. A top 10 overall for him would be a great result. If Dennis can hold onto pink on Etna it will be a good effort but the race gets much harder later. If he rides strongly for two weeks and fades in the third week BMC will have some questions answered and can build on that or make decisions about his performance. Dumoulin staying within reach of the Pink is better at the moment for him than taking the pink jersey. The gap on Lopez and Froome is much more important than Dennis. Lopez won't make that time up now but he could win a few stages. Yates is the other rider that is well placed in relation to his rivals for GC. There will be plenty of attacks anyway and if Froome shows any weakness Dumoulin won't have a choice. If Froome looks comfortable that can only help Dennis.

I don't think Dennis will hold on with the big guys until the end. I don't think we'll have an easy climb today, I expect many attacks, Lopez, Pozzo and Mitchelton boys will try for sure, and that's more than enough to drop Dennis. Anything less than 30sec on the favorites is a success for him.

 

[Laporte17]

Dennis loses several minutes, Froome loses out as well but not by as much, Dumoulin (and Pinot, Yates) is strong, Pozzo takes pink.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

Last 5 km are where the action starts - we'll see how well Dawg is. Come on Pozzo!

http://www.velonews.com/2018/05/giro-ditalia/whats-wrong-chris-froome_465574
Nicolas Portal said

We don’t want to have Chris Froome at 100 percent yet.

Sky betting on everyone looking at each other until the last km.

“We just need to take out those things that happened and not blow our heads. We are optimistic and Chris is fine. We will see on Etna, it will prove more and we will understand after that.”

Portal doesn’t sound convincing.

 

[MartinGT]

I expect Dawg to come back, he's been bluffing all along.

 

[hammerthaim]

I also think Dawg will be up there. If I had to rank them. (Lowkey can't believe Wellens has better odds than Dawg and TiboPino is favourite.)
*** Yates, Dumo, Pinot
+5sec
** Pozzo, Aru, Chaves, ((Lopez, Froome ( both injured otherwise top 3))
* Woods, Betancur, Bennett etc etc

 

[Jagartrott]

It's Wellens' birthday today. If they don't race the climb very hard, he could actually hang on and then those final sections quite suit his capacities.

 

[Laplaz]

Rüdiger Selig DNS.

 

[Valv.Piti]

The danish guy writing previews on feltet.dk doesn't even list Froome among the 15-20 most likely riders to win the stage. He is also a bit weird lol, but thats also very telling on just how bad he is going atm as that guy certainly knows his cycling.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Both Dawg and Yates
refused interviews with the RAI
guy before the partenza

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Doesn't look like a very selective stage - not as hard as last year's Etna stage. I don't expect much to happen - 15 riders within 20 secs - and someone a little down on GC to win the stage - let's say - Aru