Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 18: Pinzolo - Laghi di Cancano 207 km

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In whose bag is the queen stage of this Giro

  • Vincenzo Nibali

    Votes: 19 28.8%
  • Antonio Nibali

    Votes: 47 71.2%

  • Total voters
    66
Hart needs to gain between 45s - 1min on Saturday to have a chance vs Kelderman in the TT so I expect fireworks Ineos to set a high pace for the first Sestriere. He can't obtain that time if he waits for final climb.
 
Think this is Hart's race to lose now, he should be able to take a bit of time on Kelderman on Sestriere, and is fresh enough to defend himself in the TT. We could also see someone do a Pinot given how hard today was.
If hart puts the work in to put time into Kelderman, he will be setting up Hindley for the counter.

And Hindley won't wait for the final sprint on Setrieres. Today was a fast finish with chicanes. Any attack in the last 2km would have just been setting up the opponent for the sprint. Sestrieres is a climb all the way to the top, so an attack at 2-3km to go can count.
 
If hart puts the work in to put time into Kelderman, he will be setting up Hindley for the counter.

And Hindley won't wait for the final sprint on Setrieres. Today was a fast finish with chicanes. Any attack in the last 2km would have just been setting up the opponent for the sprint. Sestrieres is a climb all the way to the top, so an attack at 2-3km to go can count.

Depends if Kelderman can hold on to Dennis first.
 
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I am actually considering that Pello Bilbao might not be out of this. If Bahrain get creative and can use Pernsteiner, and if Novak has these legs again, if Sunweb and Ineos are busy looking at each other he could get himself close enough to steal something in the ITT.

I think it's probably Hindley & Hart in a CRI shootout, but with the 'new' Sestrières stage it's a different story. A lot more tempo climbing than if they were going up the Colle di Agnello, and all three climbs of similar style rather than the varying types of the original stage design.

However, the point for Tao was that if he went all out, yes he might toast himself, but Hindley had absolutely no reason to attack as long as Kelderman would still acquire the maglia rosa. Especially once Tao took the bonus sprint at Valdidentro and Jai would therefore not be acquiring the jersey himself. At that point, as long as Kelderman's within 2'28" (he had 2'42" over Tao, minus the 3" Tao got in Valdidentro and the 10" bonus for winning the stage if Hindley doesn't win the sprint, = 2'29"), Hindley's cards include Kelderman. It would only be once the Kelderman card is removed from play that Tao could ask anything of Hindley. As a result, his best chance of getting a) the stage victory, and b) the maglia rosa, was to go 100% to try to either drop Hindley, or get that time gap up above Kelderman's GC lead, at which point Hindley, now behind Geogeghan Hart after the intermediate, would then have the incentive on him to attack.

By going at anything less than 100%, he increased his chances of winning the stage, but he simultaneously hurt them by not tiring Hindley out as much, nor giving him any incentive to contribute, and therefore there was no way that Tao could get the jump on him in the sprint. A tricky run in to the line and some crafty use of the best racing lines by Geogeghan Hart made it as tough as he could possibly make it for Hindley to come around him, but with Jai being comparatively fresh (as fresh as one can be after a stage like that of course) it wasn't quite enough; of course with the bonus seconds meaning he fell back behind Hindley, he ended up neither winning the stage nor taking the maglia rosa.

At the same time he may not have got either had he gone all out - but he might be 3" off Hindley in the GC rather than 15" off Kelderman AND 3" off Hindley.
 
I am actually considering that Pello Bilbao might not be out of this. If Bahrain get creative and can use Pernsteiner, and if Novak has these legs again, if Sunweb and Ineos are busy looking at each other he could get himself close enough to steal something in the ITT.

I think it's probably Hindley & Hart in a CRI shootout, but with the 'new' Sestrières stage it's a different story. A lot more tempo climbing than if they were going up the Colle di Agnello, and all three climbs of similar style rather than the varying types of the original stage design.

However, the point for Tao was that if he went all out, yes he might toast himself, but Hindley had absolutely no reason to attack as long as Kelderman would still acquire the maglia rosa. Especially once Tao took the bonus sprint at Valdidentro and Jai would therefore not be acquiring the jersey himself. At that point, as long as Kelderman's within 2'28" (he had 2'42" over Tao, minus the 3" Tao got in Valdidentro and the 10" bonus for winning the stage if Hindley doesn't win the sprint, = 2'29"), Hindley's cards include Kelderman. It would only be once the Kelderman card is removed from play that Tao could ask anything of Hindley. As a result, his best chance of getting a) the stage victory, and b) the maglia rosa, was to go 100% to try to either drop Hindley, or get that time gap up above Kelderman's GC lead, at which point Hindley, now behind Geogeghan Hart after the intermediate, would then have the incentive on him to attack.

By going at anything less than 100%, he increased his chances of winning the stage, but he simultaneously hurt them by not tiring Hindley out as much, nor giving him any incentive to contribute, and therefore there was no way that Tao could get the jump on him in the sprint. A tricky run in to the line and some crafty use of the best racing lines by Geogeghan Hart made it as tough as he could possibly make it for Hindley to come around him, but with Jai being comparatively fresh (as fresh as one can be after a stage like that of course) it wasn't quite enough; of course with the bonus seconds meaning he fell back behind Hindley, he ended up neither winning the stage nor taking the maglia rosa.

At the same time he may not have got either had he gone all out - but he might be 3" off Hindley in the GC rather than 15" off Kelderman AND 3" off Hindley.
In my opinion, if it's true TGH deliberately went slower, then I think they must be very confident of crushing Kelderman on Sestriere.
 
Counterattacked? Come on. Geoghegan Hart had been doing all the work and was losing ground to Bilbao. No counterattack was forthcoming.

You guys are so adverse to even the most minuscule risks.
He stopped losing ground to Bilbao in the last 5 km. He had clearly saved some energy for the last part of the climb, and hadn't put his nose in front at all until Dennis pulled off.

Sunweb still have the tactical advantage. The big question is how much Kelderman can recover tomorrow.
 
3 weeks is a long time. Kelderman was looking the strongest in week one, but seems to be fading. Weird situation, gaining the maglia rosa but being loser of the day at the same time. I think he will be cracked at Sestrieres. Still worked hard, but suddenly lost huge chunks of time, not on the mountains but on the flat. Pity he's fading and couldn't follow Tao and Hindley. Still ended 5th after being alone for 40+ km.

Being Dutch and used to Rabofail and Dutchies or riders of Dutch teams losing GTs during the last few days (Dumo Vuelta 15, Kruijswijk Giro 16, Dumo Giro 18, Roglic Tour 20), I have this suspicion Wilco will be dethroned on saturday and Geoghan Hart will win the Giro.

Nibali, the great cyclist, can join his compatriot Aru in the has-been category. Lots of respect for Nibali. Shark days are over, bag is empty. Time has caught up. Sorry.
 
Bilbao is going to podium this Giro. Might as well win the whole race.
I think the climbing hierarchy on Stelvio (excl. Dennis) is the more meaningful benchmark. Kelderman exploded on the last climb because he was alone up until it and also possibly too exhausted as a result of freezing. Something dramatic is gonna have to happen again on Sestriere, if Bilbao is to outlast the competition - maybe if the stage was 300km Long and they climbed Sestriere many more times.
 
However, the point for Tao was that if he went all out, yes he might toast himself, but Hindley had absolutely no reason to attack as long as Kelderman would still acquire the maglia rosa. Especially once Tao took the bonus sprint at Valdidentro and Jai would therefore not be acquiring the jersey himself. At that point, as long as Kelderman's within 2'28" (he had 2'42" over Tao, minus the 3" Tao got in Valdidentro and the 10" bonus for winning the stage if Hindley doesn't win the sprint, = 2'29"), Hindley's cards include Kelderman. It would only be once the Kelderman card is removed from play that Tao could ask anything of Hindley. As a result, his best chance of getting a) the stage victory, and b) the maglia rosa, was to go 100% to try to either drop Hindley, or get that time gap up above Kelderman's GC lead, at which point Hindley, now behind Geogeghan Hart after the intermediate, would then have the incentive on him to attack.

By going at anything less than 100%, he increased his chances of winning the stage, but he simultaneously hurt them by not tiring Hindley out as much, nor giving him any incentive to contribute, and therefore there was no way that Tao could get the jump on him in the sprint. A tricky run in to the line and some crafty use of the best racing lines by Geogeghan Hart made it as tough as he could possibly make it for Hindley to come around him, but with Jai being comparatively fresh (as fresh as one can be after a stage like that of course) it wasn't quite enough; of course with the bonus seconds meaning he fell back behind Hindley, he ended up neither winning the stage nor taking the maglia rosa.

At the same time he may not have got either had he gone all out - but he might be 3" off Hindley in the GC rather than 15" off Kelderman AND 3" off Hindley.
This. The earlier Tao went all out, the more time he would put into Kelderman. But the more time he would end up losing to Hindley.
 

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