Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 18: Pinzolo - Laghi di Cancano 207 km

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In whose bag is the queen stage of this Giro

  • Vincenzo Nibali

    Votes: 19 28.8%
  • Antonio Nibali

    Votes: 47 71.2%

  • Total voters
    66
Think Sunweb made a tactical mistake today.
They had two viable choices, I think.
  1. Have Hindley wait for Kelderman at some point
  2. Have Hindley try to attack TGH and gain time (my preferred option)
Now, they are in a difficult position. Kelderman has just 15 seconds on TGH, less if TGH takes bonifications on stage 20. Kelderman should normally ride a better ITT, but it's by no means a sure thing. Hindley has 3 seconds on TGH, but will need an additional 15-30 seconds to have a better shot at fending off TGH on stage 21. If Kelderman starts to fade on stage 20, they need to make another tough decision. Do they go all in for Kelderman and have Hindley wait, considering Kelderman would be the better bet in the time trial, or do they let Hindley ride for himself, knowing there may very well not be enough road left for him to get a big enough buffer for the time trial.

If Hindley had taken 10-20 seconds today, they could more comfortably take the decision to abandon Kelderman's chances. Of course, he may not have been able to get away, but that also offers valuable insight for stage 20. And I don't think it would have hurt Kelderman too much if he'd tried one attack today.

I think TGH has the best chance to win the race, despite Sunweb being 1-2 in GC.

Also, big fail by the Sunweb DS not informing Hindley of the bonification sprint at the foot of the final climb.
 
Think Sunweb made a tactical mistake today.
They had two viable choices, I think.
  1. Have Hindley wait for Kelderman at some point
  2. Have Hindley try to attack TGH and gain time (my preferred option)
Now, they are in a difficult position. Kelderman has just 15 seconds on TGH, less if TGH takes bonifications on stage 20. Kelderman should normally ride a better ITT, but it's by no means a sure thing. Hindley has 3 seconds on TGH, but will need an additional 15-30 seconds to have a better shot at fending off TGH on stage 21. If Kelderman starts to fade on stage 20, they need to make another tough decision. Do they go all in for Kelderman and have Hindley wait, considering Kelderman would be the better bet in the time trial, or do they let Hindley ride for himself, knowing there may very well not be enough road left for him to get a big enough buffer for the time trial.

If Hindley had taken 10-20 seconds today, they could more comfortably take the decision to abandon Kelderman's chances. Of course, he may not have been able to get away, but that also offers valuable insight for stage 20. And I don't think it would have hurt Kelderman too much if he'd tried one attack today.

I think TGH has the best chance to win the race, despite Sunweb being 1-2 in GC.

Also, big fail by the Sunweb DS not informing Hindley of the bonification sprint at the foot of the final climb.
I agree with the entirety of this post. except I think Kelderman still has more chance to win then TGH.
About the bolded, he was drinking water just as they came to the intermedieate sprint. A fail by Sunweb indeed.
 
Keldermann was already acting like a liverwurst, because Sunweb wasn't pathologically following their desired Plan A but giving Hindley his deserved chance. If Hindley had attacked TGH on the last climb as he should have done , Keldermann probably would have fully sat up being huffy. In fact that's what he clearly did once the team car decided to fairly supply Hindley. He even lamented afterwards that Hindley didn't wait for him.

This really is one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen and I sincerely hope he doesn't win this Giro d'Italia!
 
Jul 2, 2019
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1,030
It's worth noting that having two riders high on GC in itself is good for your leader because it gives you tactical options. Vis Froome/Landa Froome/Thomas Thomas/Bernal etc

I think the "right" move would be to- if possible, launch Hindley on stage 20 and let Kelderman hold the wheels while others chased him, but I don't know if Kelderman would like that very much. Especially if there's a standoff and suddenly Hindley is way up the road alone.
 
I think Hindley should have tried to drop Geoghegan Hart. If he drops him then great. If he causes Geoghegan Hart to lose time to Kelderman due to stop-start, then it's great too. I also think he should have gone for himself, but probably he was told not to.
Hindley attacking TGH would have been a risk. Don't forget, Tao was sitting on Dennis' wheel all the way up and down the Stelvio, and through the valley to the foot of the final climb. At that stage, he was still every bit as fresh as Hindley, and then he rode easy-ish up most of the way, with a few changes of pace to make sure Hindley wasn't just settling into a rhythm. If Hindley had attacked, there's no guarantee that Tao wouldn't have countered over the top and got a gap. Then Tao can go full gas to the finish, Hindley ends up losing the stage and bonus time, plus 5-10 seconds on the road, and Tao goes into pink.

Hindley was much better off sitting on Tao's wheel as long as possible. If Tao had gone full gas, that would have led to Jai having an opportunity to attack, but he didn't, so he didn't.
 
Reactions: yaco and fbjim
Jun 4, 2019
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Well this definitely delivered, a proper queen stage.

Gutted as a Pole + Nibali fan for those two (talking about Majka ofc) but man, what an exciting dynamic we have with the top4 right now. Soo mad that we're not getting Agnello and Izoard because that could have been an incredible Giro finale. Saw some Bilbao comparisions with 2008 TDF Sastre and there definitely could be something to it, he impressed the hell out of me with his ride today, even more so considering he rode TDF this year.
 
Reactions: spalco
Keldermann was already acting like a liverwurst, because Sunweb wasn't pathologically following their desired Plan A but giving Hindley his deserved chance. If Hindley had attacked TGH on the last climb as he should have done , Keldermann probably would have fully sat up being huffy. In fact that's what he clearly did once the team car decided to fairly supply Hindley. He even lamented afterwards that Hindley didn't wait for him.

This really is one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen and I sincerely hope he doesn't win this Giro d'Italia!
Was Kelderman complaining during the stage that Hindley wasn't waiting?
 
I think Sunweb played their cards right. Having Hindley wait for Kelderman basically ruins all your chances on winning the GC if Kelderman blows up. If you let Hindley attack you risk that he's pacing Hart and creating a bigger gap with Kelderman. Plus Hart might counterattack and Hindley has to pay for his efforts leaving them with nothing.

This gave them a 100% on the pink jersey, at least today (as long as Hindley could follow Hart). And it leaves them with two options still on Saturday. At the end it comes down to the form of their riders on Saturday and Sunday, but at the very least this tactical decision leaves them with the best chances to win this race imo.
 
Reactions: Leinster and JosefK
OK just watched the entire stage. WHAT A BLAST!
Glad I recorded it for a rewatch during the long cold winter afternoons :)
And how fascinating to watch Almeida putting a real effort attempt to drop his own team mate for the last 50K and finally got away with it in the dying meters :p

My last post in this thread was on page 20 before I had to get back to work. Tomorrow I just have to read up to page 50 :D

Giro, Mama Mia!
 
Last edited:
Reactions: (F)lexer
1560 for the fastests, 1500 for Nibbles. It's around 2 minutes slower than @Mayomaniac reported.

What we realistically should do is build a giant scatterplot with climbs, durations, VAMs, etc.
Thanks.
For comparison Nibali did:
1549 VAM on Passo Umbrail for 42:40.
1503 VAM on Col de La Lombarde for 57:37.
( Both taken by Strava )

It seems this is an incredible performance by Dennis/TGH/Hindley.
 

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