I agree with the entirety of this post. except I think Kelderman still has more chance to win then TGH.Think Sunweb made a tactical mistake today.
They had two viable choices, I think.
Now, they are in a difficult position. Kelderman has just 15 seconds on TGH, less if TGH takes bonifications on stage 20. Kelderman should normally ride a better ITT, but it's by no means a sure thing. Hindley has 3 seconds on TGH, but will need an additional 15-30 seconds to have a better shot at fending off TGH on stage 21. If Kelderman starts to fade on stage 20, they need to make another tough decision. Do they go all in for Kelderman and have Hindley wait, considering Kelderman would be the better bet in the time trial, or do they let Hindley ride for himself, knowing there may very well not be enough road left for him to get a big enough buffer for the time trial.
- Have Hindley wait for Kelderman at some point
- Have Hindley try to attack TGH and gain time (my preferred option)
If Hindley had taken 10-20 seconds today, they could more comfortably take the decision to abandon Kelderman's chances. Of course, he may not have been able to get away, but that also offers valuable insight for stage 20. And I don't think it would have hurt Kelderman too much if he'd tried one attack today.
I think TGH has the best chance to win the race, despite Sunweb being 1-2 in GC.
Also, big fail by the Sunweb DS not informing Hindley of the bonification sprint at the foot of the final climb.
Hindley attacking TGH would have been a risk. Don't forget, Tao was sitting on Dennis' wheel all the way up and down the Stelvio, and through the valley to the foot of the final climb. At that stage, he was still every bit as fresh as Hindley, and then he rode easy-ish up most of the way, with a few changes of pace to make sure Hindley wasn't just settling into a rhythm. If Hindley had attacked, there's no guarantee that Tao wouldn't have countered over the top and got a gap. Then Tao can go full gas to the finish, Hindley ends up losing the stage and bonus time, plus 5-10 seconds on the road, and Tao goes into pink.I think Hindley should have tried to drop Geoghegan Hart. If he drops him then great. If he causes Geoghegan Hart to lose time to Kelderman due to stop-start, then it's great too. I also think he should have gone for himself, but probably he was told not to.
Was Kelderman complaining during the stage that Hindley wasn't waiting?Keldermann was already acting like a liverwurst, because Sunweb wasn't pathologically following their desired Plan A but giving Hindley his deserved chance. If Hindley had attacked TGH on the last climb as he should have done , Keldermann probably would have fully sat up being huffy. In fact that's what he clearly did once the team car decided to fairly supply Hindley. He even lamented afterwards that Hindley didn't wait for him.
This really is one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen and I sincerely hope he doesn't win this Giro d'Italia!
If those slopes are shallow enough that Sunweb can't drop 80kg of Ganna, then Ineos won't be able to drop Kelderman, and it'll all come down to the final tt anyway.Good luck dropping Ganna, Dennis and Castroviejo on those slopes.
I actually think it might be Ineos dropping the hammer down early.
A quick VAM or W/Kg calculation? And climbing times compared to 2005?
1560 for the fastests, 1500 for Nibbles. It's around 2 minutes slower than @Mayomaniac reported.A quick VAM or W/Kg calculation? And climbing times compared to 2005?
Okay I had both those previous Nibbles climbs as a little higher taken from @jens_attacks blogThanks.
For comparison Nibali did:
1549 VAM on Passo Umbrail for 42:40.
1503 VAM on Col de La Lombarde for 57:37.
( Both taken by Strava )
It seems this is an incredible performance by Dennis/TGH/Hindley.
Maybe Strava is wrong. For further info, in Strava Lombarde is 21.09 km at %6.8 avg and Umbrail is 13.08 km at %8.4 avg.
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