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Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2023, stage 15: Seregno - Bergamo 195 km

Straight from Eshnars thread

Stage 15: Seregno – Bergamo 195 km

Sunday, May 21st, 11:45 – 17:10 CEST



Technical Overview:

A big medium mountain stage just before the final rest day. From Seregno, the peloton will ride only 27 km of rolling terrain before the road goes up, first with the short ramp of San Gregorio (3.3 km at 6%) and then with the first categorized climb of the day, the Valico di Valcava (GPM1, 11.6 km at 8%). It is a hard climb, with a very steep section towards the end. Its descent is quite tricky, but it is followed by a flat section of around 25 km, leading to the first intermediate sprint of Nembro. There, the second difficulty of the day starts, the climb of Selvino (GPM2, 11.1 km at 5.6%), much simpler than the previous one but still not to be underestimated. Its descent only lasts 8 km, before the road goes upwards again, for the short climb to Miragolo San Salvatore (GPM2, 5.2 km at 7%). From there, another technical descent ending at 74 km to go will bring into a flattish section of 30 km to the second intermediate sprint of Brembate di Sopra, where the final (and possibly decisive) climb starts. Roncola Alta (GPM2, 10 km at 6.7%) is a serious climb, whose overall numbers do not give justice to. Its central section measures 6 km at 8.6% and features a huge ramp at over 13% at the beginning. The top is at 28 km to go, 10 of which are its descent. Finished that, the riders will find 13 km of flat terrain before the ramp of Bergamo Alta, a common fixture in the Lombardia, with its 1.5 km at 7.9%. From there, it will be just about diving to the finish line.


(wtf is this graph)

The Climbs:

Valico di Valcava
: GPM1, 11.6 km at 8%

A great climb with a 3 km section at over 11%. Featured many times in the Giro and in Lombardia, it is a bit of a shame that it is almost always too far away from the finish to be raced full gas.


Selvino: GPM2, 11.1 km at 5.6%

A gentle and regular climb with a lot of hairpins to keep it always around 5-6%. See below for the profile.

Miragolo San Salvatore: GPM2, 5.2 km at 7%

The average 7% is brought down by the last stretch, while the first part has very tough gradients.


Roncola Alta: GPM2, 10 km at 6.7%

It starts with a very steep and short wall, and then stabilizes at 8% for the most part.


What to Expect:

Hard to tell. There is room for a small GC battle on the last climb, but I do not expect big gaps. Tomorrow is a rest day, so someone might want to try something, but any significant action before Valpiana is highly unlikely.


Healy is the big favourite in my opinion. But breakaway formation could be again a hard fight. Pinot needs mountain points but is close on GC. Almost everyoone between 13 and 30 in GC could see a chance for a stage win here and possibly the chance to go into the Top10. Van Wilder, Cepeda, Rubio and Konrad should be all trying to make the group.
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I actually think if Ineos really wanna win they have to do something with Arensman and/or De Plus here. Most likely chug them in a breakaway. That's the spot where those guys being 6 minutes ahead of Kuss becomes really handy.

But if they wait for Roglic to recover from his wounds then I'm not gonna complain.
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It's just great to see what the pink jersey means to some people, even if they know they might only wear it for a few days. Or they might win the whole thing, who knows!

View: https://twitter.com/GroupamaFDJ/status/1659983300012777474

View: https://twitter.com/GroupamaFDJ/status/1659989196302430209
I would be very surprised if he is still in pink after tomorrow's stage