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Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2023, stage 16: Sabbio Chiese - Monte Bondone 203 km

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It would make sense for Arensman to attack on the final climb, if he has the juice for it. De Plus staying with Thomas, Ineos trying to force Roglic' hand. If Kuss isn't switched on, then Roglic will be exposed (Bouwman, Hessmann, Dennis and Oomen will probably no longer be there). If Kuss is still there, even De Plus is close enough in GC to attack and now Roglic himself will have to respond (unless Almeida does it for him).

Or everything stays together and 30 riders mosey on towards the finish.
Is Arensman still a co-leader? Would think they put everything on thomas now
 
It would make sense for Arensman to attack on the final climb, if he has the juice for it. De Plus staying with Thomas, Ineos trying to force Roglic' hand. If Kuss isn't switched on, then Roglic will be exposed (Bouwman, Hessmann, Dennis and Oomen will probably no longer be there). If Kuss is still there, even De Plus is close enough in GC to attack and now Roglic himself will have to respond (unless Almeida does it for him).

Or everything stays together and 30 riders mosey on towards the finish.
On paper yes, but looking at how they played their numbers (multiple riders high up on the gc) on the Crans-Montana stage I have little faith in them...
 
I somewhat get why so many are looking to Roglic be the one to force it tomorrow, but I have my doubts about him. He is basically even with Thomas at the top of GC rankings. When was the last time he attacked several kilometers out in a situation like that?

I hope it will be a big GC shootout finally, but I think it will be someone like Caruso or Almeida doing the bigger moves, which could then become a platform for Roglic or even Thomas to counter if they are strong and willing enough. But I have a hard time seeing the latter two being the main instigators of action given their nature as riders, the GC standings and what is still to come later this week.
 
I somewhat get why so many are looking to Roglic be the one to force it tomorrow, but I have my doubts about him. He is basically even with Thomas at the top of GC rankings. When was the last time he attacked several kilometers out in a situation like that?

I hope it will be a big GC shootout finally, but I think it will be someone like Caruso or Almeida doing the bigger moves, which could then become a platform for Roglic or even Thomas to counter if they are strong and willing enough. But I have a hard time seeing the latter two being the main instigators of action given their nature as riders, the GC standings and what is still to come later this week.
I just can't imagine a situation where SOMEONE doesn't attack on the Bondone climb...whether it succeeds is a different matter. But I don't think Roglic (or GT for that matter) will attack if he isn't feeling super. My money is on Caruso as he has the most to gain (podium). Almeida looked sprightly yesterday, too...but we know his climbing style.
 
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They've been the most successful grand tour team of the decade with multiple winners. Tactics in cycling are about winning, not entertainment (however much it annoys us).
And SD Worx are the most successful women's team. That doesn't mean they're tactical masterminds. Most of Ineos' success has been predicated on a simple bludgeoning tactic built out of having the strongest rider and strongest support squad in the race and just riding on the front until everybody drops, and when they've had to think outside of the box they've been found wanting on a number of occasions. There are occasional exceptions, but by and large that has been the tactic that has underpinned their decade of dominance, and it hardly takes a tactical wizard to come up with that.
 
I just can't imagine a situation where SOMEONE doesn't attack on the Bondone climb...whether it succeeds is a different matter. But I don't think Roglic (or GT for that matter) will attack if he isn't feeling super. My money is on Caruso as he has the most to gain (podium). Almeida looked sprightly yesterday, too...but we know his climbing style.
Yes, Caruso and especially Carthy have to attack, if the pace is slow and they have the legs.
 
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I somewhat get why so many are looking to Roglic be the one to force it tomorrow, but I have my doubts about him. He is basically even with Thomas at the top of GC rankings. When was the last time he attacked several kilometers out in a situation like that?

I hope it will be a big GC shootout finally, but I think it will be someone like Caruso or Almeida doing the bigger moves, which could then become a platform for Roglic or even Thomas to counter if they are strong and willing enough. But I have a hard time seeing the latter two being the main instigators of action given their nature as riders, the GC standings and what is still to come later this week.
 
And SD Worx are the most successful women's team. That doesn't mean they're tactical masterminds. Most of Ineos' success has been predicated on a simple bludgeoning tactic built out of having the strongest rider and strongest support squad in the race and just riding on the front until everybody drops, and when they've had to think outside of the box they've been found wanting on a number of occasions. There are occasional exceptions, but by and large that has been the tactic that has underpinned their decade of dominance, and it hardly takes a tactical wizard to come up with that.
It was literally the same tactic as USPS used with He Who Shall Not Be Named. Agree, it's not really a tactic when you have the strongest rider and the best domestiques.

That said, Ineos have had bad luck with GC injuries (froome, bernal, now Tao) and their other potential GC riders didn't pan out the way Pog, Vingegaard and Remco (and even, you could argue, Almeida) have. But if GT wins this Giro, then I'd say you can't really criticize Ineos that much.
 
As far as Ineos goes, I'd say the Giro is the one GT where they've done a couple of interesting things over the years and with Rog and Remco as the favourites I initially had hopes they try to pull something off with their various options. But with the unfortunate absence of TGH those hopes have pretty much evaporated, now I expect Thomas to just grind along like he did in last year's TDF, somewhere around a podium level, with a chance of claiming the spoils if Roglic has any problems.

So I'm also hoping to see some of the other contenders like Caruso and Almeida liven things up. Once the time gaps get a bit bigger surely we'll see someone roll the dice...
 

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