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Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2023, stage 16: Sabbio Chiese - Monte Bondone 203 km

Tomorrow may be a rest day, but maybe the day after is what we've all been waiting for. Or not. Stage preview from Eshnars thread as always

Stage 16: Sabbio Chiese – Monte Bondone 203 km

Tuesday, May 23rd, 10:50 – 17:10 CEST



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Technical Overview:

The second big mountain stage of this Giro is at a comparatively low altitude, and features a famous MTF tackled from an unusual side. After the final rest day, the peloton will start their day strolling nicely along the Garda Lake, totaling 58 km of flat roads that will be just the calm before the storm. The short ramp of Nago (1.9 km at 7.5%) is only the first taste of what is to come. At km 64 the first categorized climb of the Giro starts, one that was sorely missed for 21 years: Passo di Santa Barbara (GPM1, 12.7 km at 8.3%) is a very tough climb that would cause carnage if it came later in the stage, but even here it will wear out legs nicely, at least. Its descent is only 2.7 km long, as it connects with the next climb, the very short Passo Bordala (GPM3, 4.5 km at 6.7%). This combo is going to do some damage, as we are talking about a total of 17.4 km at 7.7% average, with just the short respite of a 3-minute descent. The descent of Bordala is long and technical, and brings directly to the town of Rovereto, where the first intermediate sprint and the start of the next climb lie. Matassone (GPM2, 11.3 km at 5.5%) is a mid-size climb parallel to the more famous Pian delle Fugazze. After reaching the GPM, the riders will go back towards Rovereto on a very irregular descent that will lead them straight to the next climb, Serrada (GPM2, 17.7 km at 5.5%). The top is at 49.5 km to go, and after 3 km of descending false flat the peloton will reach the town of Folgaria, on the road to the mythical Passo Coe, from which they will, disappointingly, descend onto the valley again, instead of climbing to that pass. The descent is steep and fairly technical, but it is on a nice and wide road and I doubt it will provide anything of note. At the bottom there will be 10 km of flat until the final intermediate sprint of Aldeno, right at the foot of the final climb of the day, one of the most famous climbs of this edition: Monte Bondone (GPM1, 21.4 km at 6.7%). While its classical side is extremely regular, this one is the complete opposite, with very irregular ramps, but it can be overall divided into three sections: two steep ones divided by an easy one in the middle. Either way, it is still a huge climb that will provide a worthy winner and could revolutionize the GC, if that has not happened yet.

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The Climbs:

Passo di Santa Barbara
: GPM1, 12.7 km at 8.3%

Very steep, with the first 9 km at 9.2% followed by 3 km of easier roads, this climb was absent from the Giro since the legendary stage of Passo Coe 2002. Today it will be the first climb of the stage, so I expect it to only sort the breakaway out. See below for the profile.



Passo Bordala: GPM3, 4.5 km at 6.7%

The proverbial cherry on top of the Santa Barbara cake.

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Matassone: GPM2, 11.3 km at 5.5%

Starts with 7 km at around 7% and then becomes a false flat for the last 4 km. No profile available.



Serrada: GPM2, 17.7 km at 5.5%

Long but with very easy gradient, especially in the middle.

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Monte Bondone: GPM1, 21.4 km at 6.7%

A very irregular side of the great Monte Bondone, which hosted its last Giro finish in 2006. It was made immortal by the legendary stage of 1956, when Charly Gaul won under a terrible snowstorm.

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What to Expect:

Huge battle for the GC on the Bondone, cannot think of anything different. Hopefully the pace on the previous climbs will be high, but this is not a stage favouring long range attacks. It will be all about the final one.

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Charly Gaul, Merano – Monte Bondone, Giro 1956
 
This is the stage we've been waiting for. Enough of energy saving! Mano a mano GC battle is upon us, maybe the decisive stage of the race. JV will try to control breakaways this time and will set a strong tempo in the first half of Monte Bondone and the group will shred to pieces by its half-point. Everybody will be racing for himself in the second half of the climb. Primoz to win the stage and get the pink jersey.
 
Isn't it the place when a guy like Roglic should drop a watt bomb? (after a strong pace by JV in the first half of the climb) How much one can wait for a proper GC action? Attacking 7-8 km from the line is not asking too much.
If they're just confident Roglic has the goods then probably. Otherwise I worry for more probing *** and mititaging risks of your own attacks. Like that's why Almeida attacked today, cause there's no downside.
 
You attack when you are strong, regardless of the stage (not being sprint stage of course). Because you never know when you will be weak. Especially if you are planning to make an assault in a hard stage when you don't have it. Lanterne Rouge invoking the Tour 2020 again for waiting too long:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVCCx4qaKAw


That was Froome, Armstrong, Contador formula.
 
It would make sense for Arensman to attack on the final climb, if he has the juice for it. De Plus staying with Thomas, Ineos trying to force Roglic' hand. If Kuss isn't switched on, then Roglic will be exposed (Bouwman, Hessmann, Dennis and Oomen will probably no longer be there). If Kuss is still there, even De Plus is close enough in GC to attack and now Roglic himself will have to respond (unless Almeida does it for him).

Or everything stays together and 30 riders mosey on towards the finish.
 
It would make sense for Arensman to attack on the final climb, if he has the juice for it. De Plus staying with Thomas, Ineos trying to force Roglic' hand. If Kuss isn't switched on, then Roglic will be exposed (Bouwman, Hessmann, Dennis and Oomen will probably no longer be there). If Kuss is still there, even De Plus is close enough in GC to attack and now Roglic himself will have to respond (unless Almeida does it for him).
Yeah, tactical masterplans that skyneos is known for.
 

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