Giro d'Italia Giro D'italia 2025 Stage 16: Piazzola sul Brenta – San Valentino

[Boehmand]

Under normal circumstances I'd say a clear break away stage, because it's the first big mountain stage and after a rest day, so most GC teams will want to hold off until the last climb.

But looking at the rest of the Giro, Wednesday probably won't see big time gaps, Thursday is a sprinters stage, Friday looks big but ends on two relatively easy climbs - and that just leaves Saturday as the only other option to take significant time on GC.

Add to that a Roglic who may be in survival mode tomorrow, and a Del Toro who is yet to be seriously tested on a big mountain - and I feel a lot of GC teams may want to drill it to eliminate Roglic and possibly get rid of Del Toro as well.

I'm not so sure tomorrow will be a break away day

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Can Gee descend over and above following wheels? Maybe he can take advantage if things stalls near a top mid race. Put some pressure on the bus.

 

[kamaveli]

Lets see if Bernal and Carapaz can rip the wheels off the clown bus or go down in flames trying to. I would prefer if Roglic goes all in on this stage, see if anything sticks.

I have doubts that Bernal can keep tempo up for long enough, although I'd love to be wrong about that. My bet is on Syates grinding UAE down.

It will be pretty hard to win time against UAE riders since they have such a dominant team. Maybe other teams should co-operate to find out if Del Toro or Ayuso cracks.

 

[Boehmand]

Can Gee descend over and above following wheels? Maybe he can take advantage if things stalls near a top mid race. Put some pressure on the bus.

If Fuglsang is good enough to stay with him he can - Fuglsang is a great decender, and guided Gee down most descents at the Tour last year.

If memory serves Houle is also a quite good descender (not sure on that one).

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I have doubts that Bernal can keep tempo up for long enough, although I'd love to be wrong about that. My bet is on Syates grinding UAE down.

It will be pretty hard to win time against UAE riders since they have such a dominant team. Maybe other teams should co-operate to find out if Del Toro or Ayuso cracks.

A concerted effort will not happen imo. Too many interest, different ambition levels etc.

 

[Boehmand]

I have doubts that Bernal can keep tempo up for long enough, although I'd love to be wrong about that. My bet is on Syates grinding UAE down.

It will be pretty hard to win time against UAE riders since they have such a dominant team. Maybe other teams should co-operate to find out if Del Toro or Ayuso cracks.

I think both EF and Ineoes are balls to the wall on this race - Bahrain too if Tiberi has recovered (otherwise they'll be conservative).

Visma I'm less certain about, they might want to ride conservatively with Simon Yates and try to nurse him to a podium finish.

Israel and Bora I'm guessing conservative, as Gee has a weak team and Roglic is hurt.

But as soon as Carapaz/Bernal/Arensman move on Santa Barbara (as I suspect they will), all the dominos will fall, unless UAE shut them down immediately.

 

[Potomac]

Am I the only one that constantly reads it as "Pizzaiola"?

No.
And as it happens I'm making a Detroit style pizza tonight.

Edit:
I just checked cabinet, it looks like I'm drinking a Rioja with it.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If Fuglsang is good enough to stay with him he can - Fuglsang is a great decender, and guided Gee down most descents at the Tour last year.

If memory serves Houlse is also a quite good descender (not sure on that one).

Can't imagine Fuglsang and Housle being in play at the top of Barbara. Anyway I think you answered the question.

 

[Boehmand]

Can't imagine Fuglsang and Housle being in play at the top of Barbara. Anyway I think you answered the question.

Haha - meant "Houle" of course, typing error

It all depends how the stage is ridden - and who is out in front, Israel may send one of them out ahead.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Haha - meant "Houle" of course, typing error

It all depends how the stage is ridden - and who is out in front, Israel may send one of them out ahead.

a perfect plan? executed to 10/10. Wout driving the pace for Yates sounds more plausible.

 

[Lequack]

Ayuso's only chance is to attacks early, like Vinge/Roglic did in the Vuelta, and force Del Toro to play the good teammate and not follow. But it's hard to see that happening without Del Toro just following immediately.

 

[Boehmand]

a perfect plan? executed to 10/10. Wout driving the pace for Yates sounds more plausible.

It's not implausible that a bunch of GC teams send guys out in front tomorrow - if anything it is likely.

Specifically for Gee it would make sense, if it was good descenders who climbed well enough to stick it out till the top of Santa Barbara.

 

[YavorD]

Tomorrow will show finally who isn't winning the Giro.
The most likely scenario is Ineos/EF driving the pace on the early climbs and Bernal/Carapaz attacking on Santa Barbara.
Won't be surprised if Visma try to send someone in the break to help Yates ln later stages.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Finally the Giro starts. Can't wait for today's stage.

I think a break will take it and Poels seems like the most obvious pick.

Among GC guys, my guess would be that Carapaz, Gee, Caruso and Tiberi (although there's some uncertainty due to his crash) are getting better, while Bernal, Ayuso, S. Yates and Roglic are getting worse. Logic says that Del Toro should be getting worse as well, but I'm not too sure (or perhaps it's just wishful thinking). Arensman I just can't read. I have no idea if his form is getting better or worse.

Most likely candidates to jump into the top 10 (today or by the end of the Giro): Rubio (as always he seems to be getting better and better), Pellizari (although he could start to fade). Poole and Piganzoli could as well, but Poole is hard to read, and I haven't seen Piganzoli yet.

 

[HashRouge]

The main problem I see for today is I don't know that any team has the sort of climbing domestiques they'd need to properly take the race to UAE. I expect EF and Ineos to really go for it, but I don't know if it will stick against the UAE boys. I could see a little bit of collaboration between Ineos and EF, courtesy of Carapaz and Bernal though. They both want the same thing and the two would definitely work together if they attacked at the same time.
Will UAE set a hard pace? I guess that will depend on how confident they are in del Toro. They certainly won't if they think there's a chance he or Ayuso will crack.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Today we might finally get some time gaps that aren't the result of crashes!

 

[Dazed and Confused]

DS to Carapaz: We need you to stay calm, follow wheels until 500m to go. Attack if you see any weakness and see if you can gain a couple of seconds on your main rivals, okay?
Carapaz: Que?

 

[Netserk]

Rogla to do a Contador/MvdP. Attack, go in the break and then quit.

 

[Rackham]

Rogla to do a Contador/MvdP. Attack, go in the break and then quit.

You must be really popular at parties. I mean that's a really sad scenario you conjured up right there and the mental image alone has ruined my morning.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Considering this is the first serious mountain stage, I think we're up for quite a few surprises.
But who's gonna be the main actors of the surprises, I've got no clue.

 

[Stubb]

Should be rainy and cold at the top of s Barbara; Giau 2021 incoming, maybe with live coverage this time.

 

[altigraphs]

Massive mountain stage today!!

Giro d'Italia 2025 | Stage 16: Piazzola sul Brenta - San Valentino (Brentonico)​

🏷️ Mountain
📏 Distance: 198 km
📈 Ascent: 6,036 m
⛰️ Climbs: 5

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/giro-d-italia-2025/stage-16-stage-16

Valico della Fricca from Lastebasse​

🏷️ Category HC
📏 Distance: 12.85 km
📈 Ascent: 820 m
📐 Average gradient: 6.38 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/lsti02/valico-della-fricca-from-lastebasse

Candriai from Trento​

🏷️ Category 1
📏 Distance: 10.44 km
📈 Ascent: 793 m
📐 Average gradient: 7.61 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/krc45x/candriai-from-trento

Vigo Cavedine from Padergnone​

🏷️ Category 3
📏 Distance: 10.08 km
📈 Ascent: 283 m
📐 Average gradient: 2.82 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/vd4mq4/vigo-cavedine-from-padergnone

Monte Velo - Passo Santa Barbara from Bolognano​

🏷️ Category HC
📏 Distance: 12.93 km
📈 Ascent: 1101 m
📐 Average gradient: 8.52 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/2a7e2d/monte-velo-passo-santa-barbara-from-bolognano

Passo di San Valentino from Mori​

🏷️ Category HC
📏 Distance: 17.64 km
📈 Ascent: 1258 m
📐 Average gradient: 7.14 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/1pk1l2/passo-di-san-valentino-from-mori

 

[Netserk]

You must be really popular at parties. I mean that's a really sad scenario you conjured up right there and the mental image alone has ruined my morning.

I think he is injured and in a lot of pain. Better then to lower expectations fully and appreciate whatever happens above and beyond that.

 

[Netserk]

Ineos don't have the team to pull the peloton all day at a high pace. Better to use their rouleurs to keep it together before the first climb and then put Arensman in the breakaway moves so that other teams will keep the pace up.

 

[Rackham]

Should be rainy and cold at the top of s Barbara; Giau 2021 incoming, maybe with live coverage this time.

Rog's favorite weather conditions right there.

/s.

I think he is injured and in a lot of pain. Better then to lower expectations fully and appreciate whatever happens above and beyond that.

I fully expect some sort of Thibaut Pinot moment today, with camera shots of "rider gets off bike and takes off number"... along with "abandon Primož Roglič" on screen.

That's my expectation. We'll see what really happens. In all seriousness the scenario whereby he actually attacks and then gets dropped would be a strange irony considering Rog's breakthrough victory in Serre Chevalier back in the 2017 TdF, i.e. where Contador had gone on the attack with one last roll of the dice (& got beaten by Rog).