Katusha came 2nd in the TTT so they should be capable of riding very strongly on the front on the flat. Then again how much effort will they be willing to expend to get Rodriguez an extra 20 seconds bonus? If the group really breaks up on the climb and Scarponi or Hesjedal was to come second then it wouldnt be a 20 second bonus over the other contenders but Purito may well see Basso as his main challenger and Basso is unlikely to win even a very reduced bunch sprint.
J-rod gained 25 seconds in a few kilometres the other day so you could argue he will do the same again tomorrow. However, the lower amount of climbing beforehand should mean that someone like Szmyd will be able to hammer along on the front on the climb and so he shouldnt gain the same gap. Then in the final flat few kilometres he could be closed down although 15-20 seconds would probably be enough to stay clear.
I think it will depend on how many people go clear. If its a large break then Katusha will just roll along; if its just Kaisen and Keizer off the front then Katusha will chase. I think quite a lot of the punchier riders will fancy tomorrow's stage so i can see a big break trying to form. Probably be a fast early pace and then the break forming on the bump at 40km.
Like the idea of Slagter doing well tomorrow. He could even try to infiltrate a break as he has lost time and the leaders wouldnt be worried unless he looked like taking the jersey. If it is a big break then any people around that place in the GC might not have to use too much energy in the break.
To the person who was wondering if Geraint Thomas might go in the break. I had been wondering that too - he has been doing ok on the climbing stages, not in the autobus so maybe will feel he has the legs to go for it, if not then maybe Flecha. Interesting point about the points competition tomorrow, maybe that could be extra encouragement for Sky to get a man or two in the break (no talk of TTTs though please

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