Giro d'Italia Stage 16: San Vigilio di Marebbe - Kronplatz (ITT) 12.9km

[Moondance]

Rising 2'273 meters above the sea, the Kronplatz has already established a place in the heart of every cycling fan, despite having appeared only once in a race. That was in the 2008 Giro, when it took Franco Pellizotti 40'26" to climb to the top of the hill, where he surprisingly defeated Emmanuele Sella by 6 seconds. There were plans to include the Kronplatz in the 2006 Giro, but snowfall led the organizers to pull it from the course.

Given that the results were spectacular last time this Giro included some gravel roads in a stage, i think stage 16 will produce plenty of excitement, since the final few kilometers are ridden over the same type of gravel that produced all the excitement on stage 7. With the added kicker that there are several ramps with a gradient of over 20%. While it is tough to pick against Basso after his dominant display to the Zoncolan... I'm going to go for upset and excitement and pick Cadel 'Cuddles' Evans to motor up the Kronplatz and win by 15 seconds to keep things interesting.

P.S. For the flamers who might argue with the 9 individuals i offered as poll options, my answer is this. I took the 9 best finishers on the Zoncolan, in order, and added 'other'. Most neutral and objective method possible.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Basso or Evans.
I wanna believe Sastre could do something here, but I don't think were gonna see his best at the giro.

I want cunego to win though. So he gets my vote

 

[JA.Tri]

Evans... a whisker in front of Basso...Nibali....Sastre. On form Basso but Evans based on possible rain and gravel.

 

[JA.Tri]

PS sorry forgot... to repeat many others thanks to Moondance for all the work.

 

[Tornadin]

who do you guys think is gonna do better: Daniel Martin or Dupont?

why?

 

[DenisMenchov]

Basso will probably win it, but hell of a climb I must say. One of my favourites

 

[the vagabond]

I think Evans will finish ahead of Basso because of the distance and the dirt. Not sure he'll win, though - somebody could have a great day. But not Sastre - he needs a running start. Porte might have a decent day here.

Arroyo, Basso, Evans, Porte top 4 after stage. We're already down to 3 newbie contenders left in the top 8. Hard to see somebody besides Basso or Evans having a chance in the overall - too much climbing and TTing left for Arroyo to hang, and the climbs being short and steep finishes should suit Evans OK, but Basso has to be the fav.

 

[Zoncolan]

Basso will do better than Cuddles.
Cuddles climbs out of the saddle a lot more, and on the gravel road it can make your rear wheel skid, especially if it rains (remember Contador two years ago).

1. Basso
2. Evans + 0:20
3. Scarponi + 0:30
4. Sastre + 0:40
5. Vino + 0:45
6. Cunego + 0:45
7. Pinotti + 1:00
8. Nibali + 1:00
9. Arroyo +1:30

 

[Shardi]

Remember Basso's ITT at Alpe d'Huez in TDF.. think 2004, got passed by Armstrong quick, then kept his wheel the rest of the way. Don't think he can handle an MT ITT to the fullest.

Evans 0:00
Basso 0:25
Scarponi 0:32
Vinokourov 0:43
Nibali 0:47
Cunego 1:04
Sastre 1:15

 

[trompe le monde]

I voted Cunego, though it will most likely be Basso who wins the TT. It will be interesting to see if a day of rest will benefit Sastre as he's still carrying some nagging pain from the crashes in Holland.

Any chance of Szmyd winning this? I only say this because he really has done excellent work for Liquigas and he deserves a stage win for his almost Herculean efforts of grinding down seasoned cyclists into mere mortals.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

This will be the stage when Pinotti rides his way back in the top 10. He has been impressive so far, great rider!

As for Szmyd, he probably won't be allowed to go as fast as he can, he'll need to save himself for more slavery at the front. What an amazing rider he is. I wonder how he would do as a GC rider in another team.

 

[theyoungest]

I voted Cunego, though it will most likely be Basso who wins the TT. It will be interesting to see if a day of rest will benefit Sastre as he's still carrying some nagging pain from the crashes in Holland.

Any chance of Szmyd winning this? I only say this because he really has done excellent work for Liquigas and he deserves a stage win for his almost Herculean efforts of grinding down seasoned cyclists into mere mortals.

Being a domestique, Szmyd will probably take an extra rest day (as far as possible on such a climb, of course). BTW, who says he kan keep that murderous pace up until the top? There must be a reason why Basso is the team leader rather than him.

 

[icefire]

Isn't there any thread on the rest day? Isn't there any rest day on stage threads?

I'm undecided between the Ivan and Cadel

 

[Pantani_lives]

As for Szmyd, he probably won't be allowed to go as fast as he can, he'll need to save himself for more slavery at the front. What an amazing rider he is. I wonder how he would do as a GC rider in another team.

Szmyd might go fast for the team classification, because Liquigas is leading.

 

[xmoonx]

I think a well rested Vino has a good chance.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Most riders will be flying up that last km at.........ooooh...........200 metres a minute!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Being a domestique, Szmyd will probably take an extra rest day (as far as possible on such a climb, of course). BTW, who says he kan keep that murderous pace up until the top? There must be a reason why Basso is the team leader rather than him.

Szmyd came top 20 in the Vuelta last year despite his working as a domestique. The guy has one career win (on Ventoux in last year's Dauphiné), but he's been a top tier domestique for years - he was spending most of the time sat on the front over the Gavia for Simoni and Cunego as far back as the 2004 Giro. Szmyd can't descend (he fell back on the descent of the Col de la Bonette-Restefond in the 2008 Tour from the heads of state group, where his team leader Cunego had fallen to, and was caught and passed by Valverde, and caught by Kirchen. He descended on a par with Menchov. He was also one of very few not to make it back on on the descent in stage 19 of last year's Vuelta - the one won by Cobo), nor can he ITT, which is why he isn't the team leader. Not being Italian doesn't help, either.

Perhaps it's something in the psychology of Polish riders in Italy - David Harmon has commented repeatedly on frustrations that Szmyd just doesn't seem comfortable working for his own goals (except once a year at the Tour of Poland which doesn't suit him) - he got so excitable and unsure about his stage win in the Dauphiné that Valverde had to come almost to a dead stop to let him past - and prefers to be a domestique and not aspire to anything more lofty, and we've had conversations here about Przemyslaw Niemiec, another great Polish climber who consistently puts in excellent results in the Italian calendar, but has never sought to race for anyone more prestigious than Miche...

 

[franciep10]

probably Basso because he likes it steep

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's after a rest day, so we might be in for a few suprises.

Rest days always break up the rythm of some riders, while others recuperate better and might do extremely well.

Dan Martin could be one of those suprises, he was nowhere in the flat stages, and in the first mountain stages, but now he seems to have found his legs. He could upset a few.
Normally I'd say Basso wins this

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans will rip it apart and win by a minute.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Highly unlikely, as the Kronplatz is similar to the Zoncolan is thoughness. The gravel roads don't really add much advantage to Evans if you think so.

But I guess you only hope that and don't think that

 

[spanky wanderlust]

i really predict evans will win this one over basso. but that's not what's bugging me.

what i really wonder is how arroyo is going to do here. does he have a shot of defending? will basso be in pink by the end of tomorrow?

 

[Moondance]

Highly unlikely, as the Kronplatz is similar to the Zoncolan is thoughness. The gravel roads don't really add much advantage to Evans if you think so.

But I guess you only hope that and don't think that

Do you live to crush his dreams?

 

[LugHugger]

Evans will rip it apart and win by a minute.

he won't based on today's evidence

 

[issoisso]

i really predict evans will win this one over basso. but that's not what's bugging me.

what i really wonder is how arroyo is going to do here. does he have a shot of defending? will basso be in pink by the end of tomorrow?

I think Basso's most likely to get the jersey on stage 19.

16, Arroyo has a big enough lead to hang on for now.

17 looks like the "mountain" stages of the Giro Cunego won. Everyone will likely finish together with Cunego sprinting for the stage.

18 is flat.