Giro d'Italia Stage 16: San Vigilio di Marebbe - Kronplatz (ITT) 12.9km

[kjetilraknerud]

Szmyd came top 20 in the Vuelta last year despite his working as a domestique. The guy has one career win (on Ventoux in last year's Dauphiné), but he's been a top tier domestique for years - he was spending most of the time sat on the front over the Gavia for Simoni and Cunego as far back as the 2004 Giro. Szmyd can't descend (he fell back on the descent of the Col de la Bonette-Restefond in the 2008 Tour from the heads of state group, where his team leader Cunego had fallen to, and was caught and passed by Valverde, and caught by Kirchen. He descended on a par with Menchov. He was also one of very few not to make it back on on the descent in stage 19 of last year's Vuelta - the one won by Cobo), nor can he ITT, which is why he isn't the team leader. Not being Italian doesn't help, either.

Perhaps it's something in the psychology of Polish riders in Italy - David Harmon has commented repeatedly on frustrations that Szmyd just doesn't seem comfortable working for his own goals (except once a year at the Tour of Poland which doesn't suit him) - he got so excitable and unsure about his stage win in the Dauphiné that Valverde had to come almost to a dead stop to let him past - and prefers to be a domestique and not aspire to anything more lofty, and we've had conversations here about Przemyslaw Niemiec, another great Polish climber who consistently puts in excellent results in the Italian calendar, but has never sought to race for anyone more prestigious than Miche...

Great post. Riders like Szmyd are the ones that make cycling a great sport IMO.

 

[davis_123]

Basso will do better than Cuddles.
Cuddles climbs out of the saddle a lot more, and on the gravel road it can make your rear wheel skid, especially if it rains (remember Contador two years ago).

1. Basso
2. Evans + 0:20
3. Scarponi + 0:30
4. Sastre + 0:40
5. Vino + 0:45
6. Cunego + 0:45
7. Pinotti + 1:00
8. Nibali + 1:00
9. Arroyo +1:30

Basso will probably fall off his bike once he hits the gravel while Evans is a former mountain bike rider so dirt is easy for him.

 

[Zoncolan]

Basso will probably fall off his bike once he hits the gravel while Evans is a former mountain bike rider so dirt is easy for him.

The road goes uphill

 

[Woody22]

Does anyone know what the weather forecast is? Any rain expected? I know it sounds nasty but I would love to see another dirty climb.

 

[davis_123]

The road goes uphill

Are you trying to suggest that Basso will instead of falling off his bike once he hits the gravel section, will instead find a way to ride off the edge of the mountain and have to ride the 1st 7.5km again?

 

[Ripper]

he won't based on today's evidence

Two things to consider about today versus the TT. First, Evans worked harder than Basso yesterday. The value of a strong team and Nibali's awesome ride - Basso could sit on wheels for the last 10-20 km and Evans basically did a TT (once he was done decending like a Ford Taurus ). Basso definitely had more in the tank.

Second, there is a rest day, and I am pretty sure that will allow for a bit of equalizing.

Not saying Evans will beat Basso or vice versa, because I really don't know! It'll be good, and it'll be interesting. If I had to pick, I would pick Evans simply based on the fact that he tends to do better in TTs than Basso - I am thinking of the individual pacing/motivation thing (rather that just aerodynamics).

 

[luckyboy]

I say Basso.

Also, thank god tomorrow is a rest day as I'll be at the dentist in the afternoon. Great timing

 

[search]

Highly unlikely, as the Kronplatz is similar to the Zoncolan is thoughness.

I've mentioned that before: in the ITT at the Kronplatz two years ago riders like Voigt, Petrov and Larsson were in the top 15, so it can't be that demanding or in other words: being a top timetrialist still gains you a lot of advantage.

Bassos results in time trial were quite poor since his comeback. He might be the best climber at the moment but this doesn't make him win at the Kronplatz. Pellizotti wasn't even near the top at the uphill finishes before his stage win at the Kronplatz 2008.

 

[taiwan]

Any chance of Szmyd winning this? I only say this because he really has done excellent work for Liquigas and he deserves a stage win for his almost Herculean efforts of grinding down seasoned cyclists into mere mortals.

+1 this would be one of probably few opportunities for a win for himself. That would be cool

This will be the stage when Pinotti rides his way back in the top 10. He has been impressive so far, great rider!

As for Szmyd, he probably won't be allowed to go as fast as he can, he'll need to save himself for more slavery at the front. What an amazing rider he is. I wonder how he would do as a GC rider in another team.

Condescending (sp?), but I'm not sure he has that type of character. when he had that win in the Dauphineé, wasn't it reported that he wasn't really sure what to do when presented with the opportunity to take a stage? Also, have I just contradicted myself? Whocaresszmydrules.

 

[Ferminal]

Voted Pinotti because on his Zoncolan performances hes a good outsider.

Although I "think" it will be:

Evans
Vino +17s
Basso +25s

 

[Sasquatch]

If Tondo has recovered, he's the outsider.

This suits Sastre.

Sastre doesn't like fast pace at the start of a climb. A good time trialist, particularly up hill goes off easy early then works fast on the late part of the course.

Sastre on the Zoncolon, couldn't go fast at the start of the climb and dropped off, but he worked himself back to nearly grab Vino when he was miles behind.

Sastre for the win!

 

[theswordsman]

I just got to watch the climb a while ago, and I was really happy for Basso. I'm picking him to win Tuesday because he's proved his fitness, and I believe he's timed his peak perfectly. The pre-Giro wins for Cadel and Vino were impressive, but probably too early. Contador has said there's no way he'll show up at the Dauphine Libere in shape to win it, because he needs to be that way for the Tour. I think the same thing applies to these guys, except they got the early wins. It's just too long to stay at that level.

Thank goodness the Time Trial is uphill. Can you imagine Basso winning the race because of Individual and Team Time Trial wins (plus the weekend climb). We should all rest up <omday, because it's gonna be a great week.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

I think Basso takes it, he looks more and more every day like the guy who rode away from the field in the 2006 Giro. Pinotti and Mollema could also pull an upset.

 

[taiwan]

I went Evans because I had picked him earlier, he had a better ride on the Zoncolan than I expected, and should benefit from the rest day, having been so active in the first week. Basso obviously wouldn't be a surprise, but a slightly more original second choice would be Cunego. He looked sort of comfortable at the top of the Zoncolan.

 

[Cobblestones]

I'm going with Cunego, because (i) almost no one has picked him (yes he's a bit of a long shot) and (ii) it would be great to have even another Italian winner.

 

[JA.Tri]

Two things to consider about today versus the TT. First, Evans worked harder than Basso yesterday. The value of a strong team and Nibali's awesome ride - Basso could sit on wheels for the last 10-20 km and Evans basically did a TT (once he was done decending like a Ford Taurus ). Basso definitely had more in the tank.

+1 spot on

Second, there is a rest day, and I am pretty sure that will allow for a bit of equalizing.

+1

Not saying Evans will beat Basso or vice versa, because I really don't know! It'll be good, and it'll be interesting. If I had to pick, I would pick Evans simply based on the fact that he tends to do better in TTs than Basso - I am thinking of the individual pacing/motivation thing (rather that just aerodynamics).

+10 should be f awesome

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with Ripper too.

I have to like Basso's chances on GT overall though. He looked really strong today, and not like he wasted everything. I think he'll lose time on a few stages to come, but not enough consistently the way Arroyo and Porte will.

 

[Inner Peace]

Evans for the win

Mountain ITT is different to Mountain stage

If a 200km stage finished here, i'd give it to Basso, Nibali, Sastre or Scarponi as they respond better to changes of pace

Since it's a TT, I give it to Evans - I think he's the best individual climber here if allowed to go at his consistent pace

Evans
Nibali/Sastre at 30seconds
Basso/Scarponi at 45sec - 1 minute
Vino/Arroyo at 2 minutes
Porte/Gerdemman at 3 minutes

That should put top as:
Basso
Evans at 30s
Sastre at 40s
Scarponi at 2mins
Nibali at 2.5mins

After the Plan de Corones TT, I think if you're out of the top 5, you're out of the race - goodbye Vino, Arroyo, Porte and Gerdemann! Impressive rides from all of them however..

It would be fitting if Liquigas have the Jersey on Basso's shoulders into the final 5 tough stages, that way, the strongest team gets to show their worth, and the weaker teams and their leaders can have a rest

Three words:

WHAT

A

RACE!!!

This may well come down to a Basso v Evans v Sastre final time trial... not good memories for Evans trying to win a GT from the final time trial.

I'm amazed by Basso here, and I sincerely withdraw my earlier claim that "Evans can easily outclimb Basso".. it wasn't easy, but Basso took round one on the first real test on a mountain top finish

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Evans for the win





After the Plan de Corones TT, I think if you're out of the top 5, you're out of the race - goodbye Vino, Arroyo, Porte and Gerdemann! Impressive rides from all of them however..

Errr - want to take a bet that Arroyo & Porte are in the top 5 on Tuesday evening?

 

[Spare Tyre]

This is the first time I have ventured a 'prediction' as I am still learning the strengths & weaknesses of different cyclists. I voted Basso, though, as from what I have seen in the past couple of days and particularly on the Zoncolan he is in great form right now.

IIRC Pellizotti was impressed with the way Cadel shot up the Kronplatz when a few cyclists did a reconnaissance recently, but it seems to me he is only in the running if he (somehow) benefits more than most from the rest day.

Off topic, can I have some assistance with pronunciation please?

How does one pronounce Bauke Mollema, Kruijswijk and (as it came up somewhere in another thread) Sorensen?

And how do people insert diacritics in their posts?

 

[Mellow Velo]

I've mentioned that before: in the ITT at the Kronplatz two years ago riders like Voigt, Petrov and Larsson were in the top 15, so it can't be that demanding or in other words: being a top timetrialist still gains you a lot of advantage.
Bassos results in time trial were quite poor since his comeback. He might be the best climber at the moment but this doesn't make him win at the Kronplatz. Pellizotti wasn't even near the top at the uphill finishes before his stage win at the Kronplatz 2008.

Trialists have the adavantage?
This is what happened last time ...

1 Franco Pellizotti (Liquigas) 40.26 (19.142 km/h)
2 Emanuele Sella (CSF Group Navigare) 40.32
3 Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni) 40.43
4 Alberto Contador Velasco (Astana) 40.48
5 Riccardo Riccò (Saunier Duval - Scott) 40.56
6 José Rujano Guillen (Caisse d’Epargne) 41.15
7 Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre) 41.30
8 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF Group Navigare) 42.09
9 Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes) 42.11
10 Denis Menchov (Rabobank) 42.15

Not a whole bunch of trialists in there, just a couple of all rounders, with a bunch of mountain goats.

 

[ak-zaaf]

How does one pronounce Bauke Mollema, Kruijswijk and (as it came up somewhere in another thread) Sorensen?

http://www.fluency.nl/

Type a Dutch name in the box and click on 'spreek'

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans
Nibali/Sastre at 30seconds
Basso/Scarponi at 45sec - 1 minute
Vino/Arroyo at 2 minutes
Porte/Gerdemman at 3 minutes

That should put top as:
Basso
Evans at 30s
Sastre at 40s
Scarponi at 2mins
Nibali at 2.5mins

1) you think Evans is a better consistent pace climber than Sastre? Evans is good but we haven't really seen much of him climbing on his own, especially not out front, to tell. Sastre regularly brings back gaps climbing his own tempo and has won a few mountain stages in the last ouple of years by going some way out and riding his own tempo...

2) Arroyo is currently 2'35" ahead of Porte and 3'33" ahead of Basso.

In your estimated stage results, that would then make the GC
1 Arroyo
2 Basso +2'33"
3 Evans +2'43"
4 Sastre +2'51"
5 Nibali +4'38"
6 Scarponi +5'34"
7 Porte +5'35"
8 Vinokourov +5'51"
9 Gerdemann +8'12"

So Arroyo at least would still be a factor.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yup the 'it suits time triallists more' about the Kronplatz can be disregarded imho.
Because if Sella, Ricco and Pozzovivo are in the top 10 last time, then I think that says everything there is to say

 

[ak-zaaf]

Trialists have the adavantage?
This is what happened last time ...

1 Franco Pellizotti (Liquigas) 40.26 (19.142 km/h)
2 Emanuele Sella (CSF Group Navigare) 40.32
3 Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni) 40.43
4 Alberto Contador Velasco (Astana) 40.48
5 Riccardo Riccò (Saunier Duval - Scott) 40.56
6 José Rujano Guillen (Caisse d’Epargne) 41.15
7 Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre) 41.30
8 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF Group Navigare) 42.09
9 Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes) 42.11
10 Denis Menchov (Rabobank) 42.15

Not a whole bunch of trialists in there, just a couple of all rounders, with a bunch of mountain goats.

Crosspost:


Kronplatz:
1 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 40.26 (19.142 km/h)
2 Emanuele Sella (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 0.06
3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni-Androni Giocattoli 0.17
5 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 0.30
6 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Caisse d'Epargne 0.49
7 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Lampre 1.04

Urbino TT results from that same year (Normal TT with 2 small climbs)

Bruseghin
Simoni @ 1.02
Ricco @ 2.04
Pellizotti @ 2.09
Sella @ 3.17
Rujano @ 3.37

A 3 to 4 minute difference for the 'real' climbers.