Giro Points Competition

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Now more or less down to Cav or Cadel, with the bookies calling it a coin toss.

3 Mountain stages, 1 sprint and tomorrow left.

Cav leads by 6 and wins in the event of a tie.

A lot will hinge on tomorrow (and the day after, and the day after that...)

 

[Netserk]

Cadel will win his second Maglia Rossa.

EDIT: Would you mind if I added a poll?

 

[nesocip]

I think TdF points competition scoring system (in its current incarnation) is leaps and bounds better than Giro one.

Does Cadel even care? Did Purito care? Does any GC contender who (inadvertently) ends up in the mix for this jersey care?

It should be a thing for the sprinters, they do care at least.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cadel will win his second Maglia Rossa.

EDIT: Would you mind if I added a poll?

To be honest, I dislike polls, so I'd rather not.

 

[Netserk]

Fair enough.

Do you think Cav will take any TVs?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The way I see it -

- Cav is 6 points up
- I expect him to take 25 on Sunday, so 31 in front.
- On current run rate of mountain stages, Cadel takes about 10 points per day, so for Friday and Saturday that makes it 12 more net over the next 2 days for Cadel to become favourite in my book.

You would expect Cadel to take 20 or 16 on Thursday, but not impossible for him to get 25, or 14, 12 or less.

Cav could in theory put himself in a good position by chasing the break back early tomorrow and taking 10 points, but i'm not sure Cadel would be happy to sit back and take 0 in that situation anyway, and no one other than OPQS would be trying to contest him out of it.

Tomorrow's stage is interesting - on the face of it too hard, but after last Friday you have to give Cav a 2nd look. It's ~4km of 8% then 1 km of 3-4% and 15km run to home. Not sure how much the extra gradient will push it beyond Cav, but despite the nonsense I've seen a few times recently on here, this is Cav's best climbing season in his career already, even before Friday, if you followed his spring closely rather than just looking at Romandie, so he has enough of a chance I suspect he will go all out for the stage, and not bother with an early chase back.

Who knows, we might even get some fun and games with the intermediates on Sunday.

 

[jens_attacks]

cav will take it
the mountains are over

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think TdF points competition scoring system (in its current incarnation) is leaps and bounds better than Giro one.

Does Cadel even care? Did Purito care? Does any GC contender who (inadvertently) ends up in the mix for this jersey care?

It should be a thing for the sprinters, they do care at least.

Cadel cares enough to sprint for points when the bonuses are gone. I think this is possibly the best way to test the balance of a route. That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right. Cavendish can win it, but it's not like it's an automatic gift to the sprinters like the Tour's jersey - he has to work hard to get it, possibly even do something out of his comfort zone like fight for intermediates or win stages that people don't think he'll be able to (he's already managed that one with stage 13 of course). I'm sure that points jerseys are just a consolation prize to the GC contenders, but that puts the balance in the favour of the sprinters, who are more likely to take the risk of going for the intermediates etc than the GC men. Maybe we might even see OPQS fight the break back early tomorrow for the intermediates (or make it so only a couple of men go so there's some leftover points to play for) or, even more left field, see Cavendish go in a break and try to hold out for the points on stage 20 (unlikely, but it would also give him a strong headstart on the time cut of course. Petacchi used to do things like this, him getting into the break and trying to get over the Gavia with the leaders in 2004 was particularly memorable) - or if he's close but not quite there, trying to take intermediate points on the very last stage.

But it keeps the competition alive right to the end without doing that by having no competition UNTIL the very end, which is in and of itself a sign that the competition is organised in a pretty good way.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

The way I see it -


Cav could in theory put himself in a good position by chasing the break back early tomorrow and taking 10 points, but i'm not sure Cadel would be happy to sit back and take 0 in that situation anyway, and no one other than OPQS would be trying to contest him out of it.

Pirazzi would probably have a go

 

[Afrank]

Hope that Cav can take it, it would be a shame to see him go all this way only to lose it for the 2nd year in a row.
Tomorrow could be an important day in the competition, Cav looks to be climbing well. He may be able to make it. No matter what though OMPQS should put their resources into either making sure he can get the intermediates or the stage (or both, if they could). And I still think it wouldn't be too bad a idea for Cav to get in the break.

 

[cycladianpirate]

Cadel cares enough to sprint for points when the bonuses are gone. I think this is possibly the best way to test the balance of a route. That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right. Cavendish can win it, but it's not like it's an automatic gift to the sprinters like the Tour's jersey - he has to work hard to get it, possibly even do something out of his comfort zone like fight for intermediates or win stages that people don't think he'll be able to (he's already managed that one with stage 13 of course). I'm sure that points jerseys are just a consolation prize to the GC contenders, but that puts the balance in the favour of the sprinters, who are more likely to take the risk of going for the intermediates etc than the GC men. Maybe we might even see OPQS fight the break back early tomorrow for the intermediates (or make it so only a couple of men go so there's some leftover points to play for) or, even more left field, see Cavendish go in a break and try to hold out for the points on stage 20 (unlikely, but it would also give him a strong headstart on the time cut of course. Petacchi used to do things like this, him getting into the break and trying to get over the Gavia with the leaders in 2004 was particularly memorable) - or if he's close but not quite there, trying to take intermediate points on the very last stage.

But it keeps the competition alive right to the end without doing that by having no competition UNTIL the very end, which is in and of itself a sign that the competition is organised in a pretty good way.

Six stage wins and no green? But I take your point. There should be an overall/combative element to the jersey.

 

[nesocip]

Cadel cares enough to sprint for points when the bonuses are gone. I think this is possibly the best way to test the balance of a route. That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right. Cavendish can win it, but it's not like it's an automatic gift to the sprinters like the Tour's jersey - he has to work hard to get it, possibly even do something out of his comfort zone like fight for intermediates or win stages that people don't think he'll be able to (he's already managed that one with stage 13 of course). I'm sure that points jerseys are just a consolation prize to the GC contenders, but that puts the balance in the favour of the sprinters, who are more likely to take the risk of going for the intermediates etc than the GC men. Maybe we might even see OPQS fight the break back early tomorrow for the intermediates (or make it so only a couple of men go so there's some leftover points to play for) or, even more left field, see Cavendish go in a break and try to hold out for the points on stage 20 (unlikely, but it would also give him a strong headstart on the time cut of course. Petacchi used to do things like this, him getting into the break and trying to get over the Gavia with the leaders in 2004 was particularly memorable) - or if he's close but not quite there, trying to take intermediate points on the very last stage.

But it keeps the competition alive right to the end without doing that by having no competition UNTIL the very end, which is in and of itself a sign that the competition is organised in a pretty good way.

There is no competition whatsoever, shown in Cadel's half-assed sprint today.

Ask yourself this. If the situation was different, would Cadel go for intermediaries, or would BMC pull back breaks so he could get a chance at them? No way in hell. Cadel is here for GC, and he ended up in the thick of Rossa competition by sprinting for bonis.

On the other hand, wasnt Green won in the last two years (since they introduced the current format with one big intermediate sprint) by guys who definitely werent the best "sprinters" around? Thor won it by going into breaks, and Sagan won it by doing good on hilly stages.

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion of course, but i consider giro and vuelta points jerseys non-competitions, while i see the tour points jersey as a "GC for sprinters".

On topic: I dont know whos going to win it, probably Cuddles, but i wish Cav won it just because he CARES for it.

 

[Netserk]

I like it how it is. Every stage is equal.

 

[qwerty16]

That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right.

No it's not. We're talking about a sprinter who has taken nearly all the points he could take and a GC-guy who isn't exactly bossing it in the difficult stages and has shown just a little interest in the points competition by placing himself near the front of the group he finishes in (which he always does by the way).

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cadel cares enough to sprint for points when the bonuses are gone. I think this is possibly the best way to test the balance of a route. That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right. Cavendish can win it, but it's not like it's an automatic gift to the sprinters like the Tour's jersey - he has to work hard to get it, possibly even do something out of his comfort zone like fight for intermediates or win stages that people don't think he'll be able to (he's already managed that one with stage 13 of course). I'm sure that points jerseys are just a consolation prize to the GC contenders, but that puts the balance in the favour of the sprinters, who are more likely to take the risk of going for the intermediates etc than the GC men. Maybe we might even see OPQS fight the break back early tomorrow for the intermediates (or make it so only a couple of men go so there's some leftover points to play for) or, even more left field, see Cavendish go in a break and try to hold out for the points on stage 20 (unlikely, but it would also give him a strong headstart on the time cut of course. Petacchi used to do things like this, him getting into the break and trying to get over the Gavia with the leaders in 2004 was particularly memorable) - or if he's close but not quite there, trying to take intermediate points on the very last stage.

But it keeps the competition alive right to the end without doing that by having no competition UNTIL the very end, which is in and of itself a sign that the competition is organised in a pretty good way.

Everytime a GC rider wins a points competition, it's like the competition might as well never have existed.

Winning this has 0 value for Cadel's palmares. It is worthless to him. No one will look back in 20 years and think remotely different of him either way this goes.

For Cav this competition is probably the last gaping hole in his palmares.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There is no competition whatsoever, shown in Cadel's half-assed sprint today.

Ask yourself this. If the situation was different, would Cadel go for intermediaries, or would BMC pull back breaks so he could get a chance at them? No way in hell. Cadel is here for GC, and he ended up in the thick of Rossa competition by sprinting for bonis.

On the other hand, wasnt Green won in the last two years (since they introduced the current format with one big intermediate sprint) by guys who definitely werent the best "sprinters" around? Thor won it by going into breaks, and Sagan won it by doing good on hilly stages.

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion of course, but i consider giro and vuelta points jerseys non-competitions, while i see the tour points jersey as a "GC for sprinters".

On topic: I dont know whos going to win it, probably Cuddles, but i wish Cav won it just because he CARES for it.

Thor won the green jersey in 2009, before the current format was brought in. Cav won it in 2011 despite being docked points for missing the time limit twice, because the fact flat stages gave twice as many points as mountain stages meant he didn't need to give a flying one about making the time limit as long as the autobus was big enough. It's not the sprinters' competition, it's the points competition. If they want to make it the sprinters' competition at the Tour, they should drop the pretence. Until then, it's a prize for consistency. In Spanish races they even call it the maillot de la regularidad.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I like it how it is. Every stage is equal.

They're not equal though.

They should have 50 points for every stage finish, and the organisers can divide those points between mountain and sprint points as they see fit.

 

[The Hitch]

Six stage wins and no green? But I take your point. There should be an overall/combative element to the jersey.

Cav won 6 stage wins and no green at the 2009 tour, 5 and no green at the 2010 tour, and those are races where gt riders get small ammounts of points.

Thing is in the tour, which is where the defenders of the sprinters jersey over an actual points one, make their big stand, the sprinter would win the jersey almost always anyway. Its difficult for gc riders to match their consistency in top finishes. Cav would have still come 2nd 2nd 1st those years.

It would just make it more interesting. and give more prestige to the win. Cav, hushovd, sagan would not just be winning a sprinterse jersey but an overall points competition.

 

[search]

They're not equal though.

Cav can win 41 points on sunday, show me one stage where Cadel can

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Everytime a GC rider wins a points competition, it's like the competition might as well never have existed.

Winning this has 0 value for Cadel's palmares. It is worthless to him. No one will look back in 20 years and think remotely different of him either way this goes.

For Cav this competition is probably the last gaping hole in his palmares.

Points jerseys - like GPMs - are now fairly devalued anyway. The last points competition won in what I thought was a genuine competition for the points jersey, was Petacchi winning it in the 2010 Tour.

All of the others recently have been either a consolation (or bonus) prize for a GC man (Evans, Mollema, Rodríguez, Valverde), or an overly simplistic cakewalk due to the over-weighting of flat stages and the lack of competition (Sagan, who had such a lead from hilly stages being called flat at the start of the race, and Cavendish, whose only rival for the jersey was the time limit, since the tweaked competition was so clearly biased in the favour of a dominant sprinter, with Prudhomme even being quoted as saying that it was re-designed because he didn't like that Cavendish hadn't won it despite his sprinting strength in the previous years). Petacchi won it by being a strong sprinter and outscoring the slower guys who tried to win it by smarts (Hushovd), and being a more durable and consistent finisher than the fastest guy out there (Cavendish). But Cavendish could still take it, up until the final day, if Petacchi faltered - and the competition was also aided by the Renshaw DQ because we got to see Cavendish fend for himself (and prove the doubters wrong about needing the train).

If the points competition is about sprinters, then Petacchi vs. Cavendish vs. Hushovd in 2010 proved that the competition should have been set up like so. But they then decided that the obviously sprinter-biased competition wasn't sprinter-biased enough.

 

[nesocip]

Thor won the green jersey in 2009, before the current format was brought in. Cav won it in 2011 despite being docked points for missing the time limit twice, because the fact flat stages gave twice as many points as mountain stages meant he didn't need to give a flying one about making the time limit as long as the autobus was big enough. It's not the sprinters' competition, it's the points competition. If they want to make it the sprinters' competition at the Tour, they should drop the pretence. Until then, it's a prize for consistency. In Spanish races they even call it the maillot de la regularidad.

What does "Malilot la de relugadirad" mean?

Im joking.

Yea, Thor's win was 2009, dont know where i lost two years in between.

Anyways, I remember some survey RCS management was doing last year i think about Rossa. It was something like the discussion we are having at the moment.

Anyways, at the moment the winner of the Red is decided by parcours, not by rider, which is not really OK. Yes, your argument of a fight between a GC guy and a pure sprinter on a balanced parcours stands, but how often is the parcours balanced?

To sum it up, yes i do think it should be a "Sprinter's Jersey" in all three GTs, pretense or no pretense. Creates another "race within a race", which is never a bad thing, and adds another layer of complexity to the race itself. What do they call it, doesnt really matter. They could be giving out points for every km spent in a break, for example, and still call it a "points jersey". They get points after all.

Now that ive mentioned it, i hope some bigger race soon introduces a jersey for a guy that spent most km in 1st group on the road in a race, i think technology is advanced enough for that now.

 

[Netserk]

Giro already does that (last paragraph)

 

[Froome19]

Cadel cares enough to sprint for points when the bonuses are gone. I think this is possibly the best way to test the balance of a route. That the two contenders for the points jersey are a GC contender and a dominant sprinter is a sign that they've got the balance right.

If we were talking about a climber or puncher who was podiuming stages and really featuring at the end and in contention for stage victories, then I would say you would have a fair point. But Cadel has almost stumbled upon his points, they are not his priority. Of course Cav wants to win stages as well, but if you asked him now what he would take.. a stage win or the points jersey I have a feeling he would go for the latter. What would Cadel take a higher placing on GC or the points jersey?

It would be a fair appraisal of the competition if this was Purito of last year for example who was winning uphill stages etc But Cadel is not and anyways he would by no means jepoardise his GC placings for a shot at the Points jersey (not like Purito would either)

 

[Ruby United]

Now more or less down to Cav or Cadel, with the bookies calling it a coin toss.

3 Mountain stages, 1 sprint and tomorrow left.

Cav leads by 6 and wins in the event of a tie.

A lot will hinge on tomorrow (and the day after, and the day after that...)

Why would Cav win in a tie?

Because he won more stages?

 

[Netserk]

Why would Cav win in a tie?

Most stage wins.