The Tour profiles have been revealed and it all looks horrible. But what will probably lack gravely in entertainment could turn out to be Alejandro's best chance, perhaps ever, to actually win the whole thing.
It is very easy mountain- and TT-wise, which I guess we already knew but the Marseille TT even has a nice murito, which should suit him well. There are a couple of puncheur finishes where he could gain some seconds on the rest of the GC competitors, and the course is so easy that I don't see him necessarily have a day where it all gets too much. The biggest concern might be the two last mountain stages in the Alps, where the high altitude on Galibier and Izoard will be his biggest hindrance.
Based on this season, he should be the favorite together with Richie Porte but it would be surprising if Chris Froome won't rediscover his usual self. However, his season so far has been worrying and he has proclaimed that he would focus more on climbing than TT'ing because of the route, which in my opinion would be a mistake and blunt his best weapon if he is as bad on the time trials as in 2015.
Movistar simply must realise this opportunity, and if I see Valverde slaving one second on the front for Quintana (which would be less likely to happen if he doesn't win the Giro, so I will be crossing fingers for that), I will personally take to France to give the management a proper scolding for their incompetence. He has been the strongest rider of the season and won every stage race in which he has participated, beating practically every important rider except for Porte against whom he hasn't faced off this season.
Of course, the early season is different from the Tour, but it can't be that bad of a gauge.
Valv.Piti asked whether he was insane for believing Valverde would have a chance for the Tour. I was inclined to say yes, but those were early days, and I would like to board the hype train now.
¡Vamos Bala!