Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

What's his race calendar before the Tour?

Dauphine, Im almost positive about that. He did Suisse once and safe to say it didn't go that well. Will be a great race with basically everyone who contends for TdF showing up, only Quintana is missing.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Dauphine, Im almost positive about that.

He's on the startlist

He did Suisse once and safe to say it didn't go that well.

Twice
The second time it didn't go well because he crashed during the Tour and was coming back from a year and a half out. The first time he climbed at the Tour better than he ever has.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I froze the first time out, but he DNF'ed that race so attributing it to that is probably wrong and you are obviously right that he was coming back from suspension in 2012, but thats not doing so hot in Tour de Suisse still compared to the two wins at the Criterium du Dauphine

 

[tobydawq]

In 2015 and 2013, he was not very good in the Dauphiné. It actually seemed to be the low-point of his form curve those years. In 2014, he rode Route du Sud, and last year he took a break after doing the Giro.

So it could be wise to wait betting on the Tour victory until after the Dauphiné, because his odds are likely to increase if he puts in another mediocre performance there.

On the other hand, he is yet to lose a stage race this season, so that may be a mistake.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, I don't expect him to be a world beater at all either. Top-5 would be a nice result, maybe a stage, but I definitely think that Mont du Chat and Solaison are too hard for him at this point. But who knows!

In both those years, 13 and 15, he had podium shape in Tour de France.

 

[Brullnux]

Congratulations to him for becoming the new Barca boss. Do you guys reckon this will mean a change in his schedule, or is he going to retire to focus 100% on his managerial career?

 

[movingtarget]

If Richie Porte's form can warrant inclusion into the possible winner of the TdF short list, then Valverde's amazing form also warrants inclusion.

When the Giro in 2016 went over 2400m, Valverde lost time in the last 200-300m of the two big climbs. Both hit 2700m.

They hit nothing that high in the Tour. Valverde struggled with one climb, the one where John Lee Augustin went head over heals, back in 2008 during the Tour.

That was 9 years ago. So yes, I think elevation can play a part in messing with him...but they won't go high enough this Tour to mess with him.

Can he win?

Darn right he can!

Valverde winning the Tour is on the cards this year!!

I don't see him winning even if his one day and one week form is sensational. The GT is the weakest type of race for him and he has only won one, could have one two. What is weird is that age doesn't seem to be having much effect on him at least in the shorter races but sooner or later it will have to effect him in the GTs. That's the way it usually works, it's the endurance that declines first. Really at three or four years older than Contador they are riding on just about the same level in GTs. With the classics he could still be winning for a few more years.

 

[lenric]

Don't quite know about endurance falling first. I believe the first thing that falls is the "explosivity" (for a lack of a better word) required to do attacks like Contador used to do. Even Froome has somewhat changed.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Don't quite know about endurance falling first. I believe the first thing that falls is the "explosivity" (for a lack of a better word) required to do attacks like Contador used to do. Even Froome has somewhat changed.

GT riders seem to decline before classics riders who often continue to win in their late thirties which never happens in GTs except in Spain and a bit later ! I guess there are sometimes exceptions and Valverde's GT level seems to be not declining much so far. I don't see much change in Froome and a lot of people seem to think he had something in reserve in the Tour. His Vuelta ride indicated as much. He didn't win a big mountain stage in the Tour by his normal margins but with his TTs he didn't have to and he didn't show any decline in the third week unlike other years. This was probably due to his training and trying to do the double.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Don't quite know about endurance falling first. I believe the first thing that falls is the "explosivity" (for a lack of a better word) required to do attacks like Contador used to do. Even Froome has somewhat changed.

GT riders seem to decline before classics riders who often continue to win in their late thirties which never happens in GTs except in Spain and a bit later ! I guess there are sometimes exceptions and Valverde's GT level seems to be not declining much so far. I don't see much change in Froome and a lot of people seem to think he had something in reserve in the Tour. His Vuelta ride indicated as much. He didn't win a big mountain stage in the Tour by his normal margins but with his TTs he didn't have to and he didn't show any decline in the third week unlike other years. This was probably due to his training and trying to do the double.

I'm only addressing his attack's style. Until 2014 they were different from what we've seen after it.

 

[SeriousSam]

The point is that the physical ability to do those full genius attacks is probably still there, he just hasn't used them because he's a multi Tour winner focused on winning now, and no longer so eager to demonstrate his power, like he was in 2013.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I think stage 5 to Planche de Belles Filles is the key how this year's Tour will develop. If Froome drops them all (and he will try for sure), we already have a winner. But if he fails to do that, then we have a race.

The gaps won't be huge on such a short MTF after an easy stage.

I know the gaps won't be big, but it's going to be a huge blow to Froome mentally if he doesn't win this stage. It's the first serious MTF and he always goes full gas at them to demonstrate his strength and demoralize his rivals. If Valverde can stay with Froome until the last 500m he's going to win that stage most likely, and that's going to change the dynamics of the whole race. Froome will become insecure, just see what happened to Quintana after Oropa.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Neither Froome nor Valverde will win on La Plance, Richie Porte will do a Richie Porte and win comfortably.

 

[yaco]

Will not get a better parcours to suit his talents - Question is whether Valverde or Quintana will be the number one rider.

 

[Galic Ho]

If Richie Porte's form can warrant inclusion into the possible winner of the TdF short list, then Valverde's amazing form also warrants inclusion.

When the Giro in 2016 went over 2400m, Valverde lost time in the last 200-300m of the two big climbs. Both hit 2700m.

They hit nothing that high in the Tour. Valverde struggled with one climb, the one where John Lee Augustin went head over heals, back in 2008 during the Tour.

That was 9 years ago. So yes, I think elevation can play a part in messing with him...but they won't go high enough this Tour to mess with him.

Can he win?

Darn right he can!

Valverde winning the Tour is on the cards this year!!

I don't see him winning even if his one day and one week form is sensational. The GT is the weakest type of race for him and he has only won one, could have one two. What is weird is that age doesn't seem to be having much effect on him at least in the shorter races but sooner or later it will have to effect him in the GTs. That's the way it usually works, it's the endurance that declines first. Really at three or four years older than Contador they are riding on just about the same level in GTs. With the classics he could still be winning for a few more years.

April 1980 birth date versus December 1982.

Evans at Valverde's age, managed a Giro podium. Evans faded out faster than Valverde has.

At Valverde's age, Contador's 37 year old team mate managed a third at the Tour.

Age matters in cycling?

Not so much these days. Heck, at this age Chris Horner was still stuck in the corner waiting for his go.

Valverde had moments in all 3 GT's last year, where he looked very strong.

A podium place in the Tour is on the cards. A win?

I'm not ruling the possibility of that out. Unlikely. But possible.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

I think stage 5 to Planche de Belles Filles is the key how this year's Tour will develop. If Froome drops them all (and he will try for sure), we already have a winner. But if he fails to do that, then we have a race.

The gaps won't be huge on such a short MTF after an easy stage.

Gaps could be similar to PDBF 2012 or Oropa 2017. Not huge but significant.

 

[Galic Ho]

Re:

Don't quite know about endurance falling first. I believe the first thing that falls is the "explosivity" (for a lack of a better word) required to do attacks like Contador used to do. Even Froome has somewhat changed.

2015 Tour, the stage Quintana dropped Froome and Valverde marked Contador.

Contador not as fresh as the rest after riding the Giro, was left devastated by Valverde, who was 35 at the time, riding by him and almost catching Froome.

At last years Giro, I'd say your point held when longer climbs come into effect.

Shorter steeper ramps, Valverde still has the strongest punch of any GT rider other than Purito. The constant winning of Ardennes classics proves this. Maybe Dan Martin can match him with Froome a bit behind that. Problem is, we don't see a lot of those types of climbs in GT's. When we do, it's in the first 7 days and everyone is at a high level, so the gaps are minor.

I'll agree Contador has lost some of his high end punch. It's not a consistent weapon he can fall back on.

This is actually the first Tour where I don't think Contador can win.

I'd say Quintana's chances are possibly as high as his, even with a Giro in his legs. Contador would need his 2011 Giro ability to win the Tour. I don't see that happening...it might, but probably won't.

The Valverde speculation is just that. I want him to win, just to see him win and everyone squirm. I think that would be brilliant!

 

[Galic Ho]

Re:

Neither Froome nor Valverde will win on La Plance, Richie Porte will do a Richie Porte and win comfortably.

The hype in Australia if this occurs will be LEGENDARY.

Don't over hype the Porte train any more. It's going to be on EVERY stage here in Australia.

If he wins the Dauphine...yeah, hype x1000!!

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Will not get a better parcours to suit his talents - Question is whether Valverde or Quintana will be the number one rider.

I think they will start as Quintana #1 and Valverde #2 with no obligation to work for Nairo until it becomes clear who's stronger of the two. Already after stage 9, or stage 12 they should know who's going better.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Will not get a better parcours to suit his talents - Question is whether Valverde or Quintana will be the number one rider.

I think they will start as Quintana #1 and Valverde #2 with no obligation to work for Nairo until it becomes clear who's stronger of the two. Already after stage 9, or stage 12 they should know who's going better.

Yes, probably like T-Mobile in the glory days of Vino, Klödi and Jan.

 

[Red Rick]

Usually the least 'natural' abilities go first. For Contador his flat TT's starting going first. For Valverde it's his hair apparently.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Usually the least 'natural' abilities go first. For Contador his flat TT's starting going first. For Valverde it's his hair apparently.

Just be glad we live in a time of mandatory helmets
You don't want to see those implants being held together by a bandana

And on a serious note, his sprint isn't half what it used to be. I remember him beating Zabel as a neo-pro. Hell, he won 100+ rider bunch sprints.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Id generally say you' get more of an endurance athlete and you lose some of the explosiveness which in this case holds true for Valverde. Unless your are Chris Anker Sørensen of course, then you just get plain bad and get dropped on Ventoux by Greipel.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Neither Froome nor Valverde will win on La Plance, Richie Porte will do a Richie Porte and win comfortably.

The hype in Australia if this occurs will be LEGENDARY.

Don't over hype the Porte train any more. It's going to be on EVERY stage here in Australia.

If he wins the Dauphine...yeah, hype x1000!!

It will stop being hype if he wins. Then will come the comparisons to Cadel and Froome maybe even Eddy !

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Id generally say you' get more of an endurance athlete and you lose some of the explosiveness which in this case holds true for Valverde. Unless your are Chris Anker Sørensen of course, then you just get plain bad and get dropped on Ventoux by Greipel.

That's strange because all I have seen this year is Valverde exploding off the front. Maybe his opposition in classics is not what it was at least not in the hilly classics. Even his TT has been very good. He seems to be winning some of these races with something in reserve. Not bad at his age !