Re:
lenric said:
Don't quite know about endurance falling first. I believe the first thing that falls is the "explosivity" (for a lack of a better word) required to do attacks like Contador used to do. Even Froome has somewhat changed.
2015 Tour, the stage Quintana dropped Froome and Valverde marked Contador.
Contador not as fresh as the rest after riding the Giro, was left devastated by Valverde, who was 35 at the time, riding by him and almost catching Froome.
At last years Giro, I'd say your point held when longer climbs come into effect.
Shorter steeper ramps, Valverde still has the strongest punch of any GT rider other than Purito. The constant winning of Ardennes classics proves this. Maybe Dan Martin can match him with Froome a bit behind that. Problem is, we don't see a lot of those types of climbs in GT's. When we do, it's in the first 7 days and everyone is at a high level, so the gaps are minor.
I'll agree Contador has lost some of his high end punch. It's not a consistent weapon he can fall back on.
This is actually the first Tour where I don't think Contador can win.
I'd say Quintana's chances are possibly as high as his, even with a Giro in his legs. Contador would need his 2011 Giro ability to win the Tour. I don't see that happening...it might, but probably won't.
The Valverde speculation is just that. I want him to win, just to see him win and everyone squirm. I think that would be brilliant!