Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Impeccable shape. Better than what he did last year in Amstel - he was maybe the strongest rider here, but was hampered by the fact that he only is 62 kg. Great, great perfomance.

If he doesn't crash, he wins Fléche. Liege is always more complicated, but he is still the big favourite.

If there is one single team except movistar trying to control FW I'll get angry. Valverde looked so much stronger than his rivals for fleche today that it would really be a present. No way valverde can be beaten on the mur

You know Quickstep will help very simply because Alaphilippe's best shot at winning and an almost guaranteed podium is to ensure that mass "sprint" up the Mur de Huy the final time.

 

[Arredondo]

Valverde for sure will win his 6th FW. Only Alaphilippe could follow him today, but he lacks the composure to finish it off.

Liege, like Valv.Piti says, is more complicated because of possible team tactics. But mano a mano, he can't be beaten.

 

[DFA123]

Very nice race by Valverde today. Looked great on the climbs - I think he would have probably won on the old route with the form he had today, but with this route it's out of his hands really; with no team-mates he has to gamble on it finishing in a sprint.

I wonder if the 7 man teams will make Fleche a bit more testing to control this year for Movistar. I think it could get quite complicated, especially if the likes of Quickstep and BMC play some of their other cards and race for Alaphilippe/Teuns only if it comes back together just before the Mur.

 

[movingtarget]

Yeah it looks like another Fleche for Valverde.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

Very nice race by Valverde today. Looked great on the climbs - I think he would have probably won on the old route with the form he had today, but with this route it's out of his hands really; with no team-mates he has to gamble on it finishing in a sprint.

I wonder if the 7 man teams will make Fleche a bit more testing to control this year for Movistar. I think it could get quite complicated, especially if the likes of Quickstep and BMC play some of their other cards and race for Alaphilippe/Teuns only if it comes back together just before the Mur.

Other teams will probably help Movistar again. I don't understand these other teams, but it is what it is.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Impeccable shape. Better than what he did last year in Amstel - he was maybe the strongest rider here, but was hampered by the fact that he only is 62 kg. Great, great perfomance.

If he doesn't crash, he wins Fléche. Liege is always more complicated, but he is still the big favourite.

If there is one single team except movistar trying to control FW I'll get angry. Valverde looked so much stronger than his rivals for fleche today that it would really be a present. No way valverde can be beaten on the mur

You know Quickstep will help very simply because Alaphilippe's best shot at winning and an almost guaranteed podium is to ensure that mass "sprint" up the Mur de Huy the final time.

Quickstep didn't help must last year, when Martin was second favourite for the race. They sent Jungels on the attack instead. I doubt they will this year either; they have several riders who could win from a break - and can save Alaphilippe for if Movistar manage to keep it all together.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

 

[tobydawq]

Today was another proof of Valverde's biggest weakness as I see it - the ability to keep together a small group when the final kilometres are flat. Sagan needed his help today, and he rode stupidly in the end.

To be fair, if he were to beat Sagan, he would need him to do the bulk of the work and tire him maximally for the sprint. But he should have gone past him when Sagan appeared to not be able to close down the gap to Kreuziger because that was when the boat sailed.

I'm a little disappointed in him but he showed both aggressiveness and immense strength but rode the finale foolishly - comparable to Lombardia 2014 and Firenze 2013. He will win the next two Ardennes races, though.

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

Both Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg are barely hills. That he was able to drop most of the elite group is very impressive.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

Would be great if that's the case. I mean, it would be nice if Bala is able to win his 6th FW, but i rather have an exciting edition of FW with a different - Valgren-a like - winner.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

 

[Netserk]

I think a winning attack would have to come before Cherave. Even with only Landa left to pull, attackers wouldn't have enough of a gap and would probably be too gassed as well.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

No, they don't.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

No, they don't.

Teuns and Alaphilippe want a sprint. I'd say Martin as well.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

No, they don't.

Sure they will. Martin, Teuns, Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski/Henao will all fancy their chances in a sprint.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Today was another proof of Valverde's biggest weakness as I see it - the ability to keep together a small group when the final kilometres are flat. Sagan needed his help today, and he rode stupidly in the end.

To be fair, if he were to beat Sagan, he would need him to do the bulk of the work and tire him maximally for the sprint. But he should have gone past him when Sagan appeared to not be able to close down the gap to Kreuziger because that was when the boat sailed.

I'm a little disappointed in him but he showed both aggressiveness and immense strength but rode the finale foolishly - comparable to Lombardia 2014 and Firenze 2013. He will win the next two Ardennes races, though.

Unfortunately he's done that more than just those two races. He's good for screwing things up and costing himself both wins and podiums during the season. He has gotten better at doing it less often, but he still does it.


Yes there are several teams who WILL work with Movistar to keep the race together because they have leaders who all would prefer to take their chances in a final sprint up the Mur de Huy regardless of rather they think they have a chance at Valverde or not.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

Quickstep and BMC both made a move in the last 20km last year, they weren't co-operating with Movistar. I agree they'd probably be happy with a sprint, but I don't think they will work with Movistar to secure it, not when they can send potentially dangerous riders up the road instead.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

It will need to come before or after that climb, cause on that climb Movistar and Valverde won't let serious group to escape. I remember last year there was some serious regrouping and attacking on Cherave, Majka went with Moscon and Kreuziger, Valverde reacted himself and close the gap. Best place is perhaps immediately after penultimate Mur de Huy pass. But it needs to be serious group, 5-6 strong men.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

It will need to come before or after that climb, cause on that climb Movistar and Valverde won't let serious group to escape. I remember last year there was some serious regrouping and attacking on Cherave, Majka went with Moscon and Kreuziger, Valverde reacted himself and close the gap. Best place is perhaps immediately after penultimate Mur de Huy pass. But it needs to be serious group, 5-6 strong men.

Movistar will be a man shorter than they were last year though. And, presumably they''ll have been riding at the front most of the day, so I think they could be vulnerable to an attack. Also, last year Orica did loads of work helping them as well - if not it might have been tricky to even catch Jungels.

They probably just need to mark Quickstep, as long as none of their riders get away then they'll presumably have a strong ally to assist in closing down any attack. But Valverde is such a strong favourite, that there are going to be a hell of a lot of teams riding to distance him this year - even more than ever before.

 

[Velolover2]

Triple Mur de Monty and Citadelle De Namur could be nice additions to Fleche Wallone. Those are steep, short climbs as well, similar to MDH.. so Fleche Wallone would still be the official "muro" race.

You could still finish on Mur De Huy but it would give a strong breakaway of climbers a much, much better chance to survive.

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's pretty simple. Any group over the Cherave must have Landa in it. Landa then does nothing in that group.

 

[Koronin]

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I think it's pretty simple. Any group over the Cherave must have Landa in it. Landa then does nothing in that group.

Wouldn't shock me if that will be part of Landa's role. Today he looked more than happy to work for Valverde, which he said he would do in the Ardennes.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

I think you're way overstating it. 2 or 3 riders could be very dangerous. Jungels wasn't that far from staying away last year. If he had another one or maybe two strong riders - the likes of Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Izagirre or Kreuziger - they would be very difficult to catch for 7 man teams, who are filled mostly with climbers.

Everyone will lean on Movistar until the last possible moment, and there's a decent chance they will misjudge it and only start to help when it's too late.