Hindsight 20/20, where did Andy lose it?

[Velo Dude]

He led by 57 seconds going into the ITT. How could it be anything other than the ITT where he lost the Tour?

 

[K-0tic]

He led by 57 seconds going into the ITT. How could it be anything other than the ITT where he lost the Tour?

Cause perhaps he didn't gain enough time before the ITT?

 

[ManInFull]

Going slightly off topic for a moment. While Andy S may not actually have lost the Tour, Thomas Voeckler certainly lost a podium spot, by fighting on in the unequal fight to keep in yellow.
27 seconds lost on his Kamikaze descent into Pinerolo and then 2-25" lost to Frank, on the final ascent up the Alpe.
Without Pinerolo and with his 27 second gain in yesterday's ITT, he could have finished 1-46" down on the Alpe and still finished 3rd.

Killing himself on the Telegraphe/Galibier chase was the nail in his podium coffin.

If he had dropped back to the peloton and set Europcar to work alongside BMC.........


.......ah, the benefit of hindsight!

Yep. I think AC's attack on Friday resulted in Andy wasting his legs and caused TV a chance at the podium.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Pyrenees. I think if Andy had did a long attack earlier in the Pyrenees(like he did in the Galibier) and get a couple of minutes on Cadel, he would of been able to recover in time and attack Cadel again on the Galibier considering the resting days between the two sets of mountain stages. That would of probably given Andy more than 3 minutes over Cadel.

 

[rickshaw]

Exactly my thoughts

He lost it last season when he left Riis to form his own team.

That and starting the season as #1 ranked team, that hadn't actually raced a single mile together. Leotard and Sky have both proved that you can't simply buy a lot of talent, throw them on stage and come out with a winner.

Flawed concept from the start

 

[SpeedWay]

He led by 57 seconds going into the ITT. How could it be anything other than the ITT where he lost the Tour?

It isn't. Ever other winner of the tour in the recent era except Sastre(still within 30 seconds of Evans in 2008) and Pantani(great climber and one of the clinics poster boys) were strong time trialist. Ever thing else is shoulda, coulda, woulda arm chair quarterbacking with the added luxury of unlimited matches to burn.
Cadel rode the better race - plain and simple. Andy will have a hard time winning the tour if his TT skills don't improve.

 

[Franklin]

It isn't. Ever other winner of the tour in the recent era except Sastre(still within 30 seconds of Evans in 2008) and Pantani(great climber and one of the clinics poster boys) were strong time trialist. Ever thing else is shoulda, coulda, woulda arm chair quarterbacking with the added luxury of unlimited matches to burn.
Cadel rode the better race - plain and simple. Andy will have a hard time winning the tour if his TT skills don't improve.

You are very wrong here..

Pantani was an absolute top-notch Time trialist in the years he was a real contender

That said, of course your point is completely true.

Considering I have been saying that GT's get decided in the TT and I was poohpoohed away this is quite funny. What's even funnier is that the facts every time proof that the key is not the mountains, but the TT.

Even when the TdF is completely suited for a climber it's being decided in the GT... by an allrounder. Well, I'm sure that this has driven home the point for awhile.

 

[Jeanne]

Andy himself just had an insight in an interview: "I'll never be like Cancellara in a TT. I have to win the tour in the mountains." Amen

 

[Franklin]

Andy himself just had an insight in an interview: "I'll never be like Cancellara in a TT. I have to win the tour in the mountains." Amen

If he says that he should realize that he is in severe trouble.

Van Impe and Sastre were the only "mediocre" TT riders to win in "recent" history. And these two were a lot better than Andy when it counted.

So clearly focussing on the mountains is setting up for defeat. He should work more and more on his TT or just accept that he should go for Polka.

 

[Jeanne]

If he says that he should realize that he is in severe trouble.

Van Impe and Sastre were the only "mediocre" TT riders to win in "recent" history. And these two were a lot better than Andy when it counted.

So clearly focussing on the mountains is setting up for defeat. He should work more and more on his TT or just accept that he should go for Polka.

he also said he will work on his TT (of course he keeps saying that) - but I seriously doubt he will ever be as good as he would need to be.

 

[AboutTimer]

He should have tested the other riders more in the Pyrenees. He should have forced the tempo and dropped the yellow jersey onto cadel and made him defend it. Andy is too concerned about Frank making it as well. If Frank would just ride as a super domestique instead of coleader Andy would win the tour.

The Schlecks have claimed repeatedly that they care more about one brother being in yellow than having two brothers on the podium, but their tactics didn't seem to bear this out. Unless Frank was not on form, there was no reason not to send him up the road repeatedly, or alternate with Andy and make Evans and Contador chase.

Everyone knew how much of a lead could not be recovered by Evans in the TT, and they failed to secure that amount of time. Adding Contador into the mix complicates the equation, but only a fool would believe that Evans was not as credible a threat. IMO he would have won the dreadfully boring Tour we had last year if not for the bad luck of crashing and breaking his elbow. Which, of course, is part of the game. But as seemingly plodding a contender as he is, Evans has always been a threat and could never be counted out as long as he was uninjured and hadn't had a 'bad day'. One of which happened to him every year except this one.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

He lost in the months before.
With this course, under these conditions, he should have never lost this race.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He lost in the months before.
With this course, under these conditions, he should have never lost this course.

certainly.

Maybe I am wrong, But I feel he was better 12 months ago.

 

[Velo Dude]

Cause perhaps he didn't gain enough time before the ITT?

But he still led going into the ITT, so he clearly lost it in the ITT.

Otherwise, it's pointless to ask where he lost it, because he lost it everywhere he lost time.

 

[the asian]

Andy never shows in many events other than the Ardennes and the Tour, so it was business as usual. He also always does the Tour de Suisse, instead of the Dauphiné. What's wrong with doing the Tour de Suisse as Tour prep? It's seen as one of the main Tour prep races, alongside the Dauphiné. It didn't do Cunego, Danielson or Rojas any harm to be racing in Switzerland, and both he and his brother ended up on the podium. Gesink and Rodríguez did it last year en route to the top 10.

This is year the ITT used at Dauphine was the same used for the tour. Cadel did the dauphine and did a smashing ITT. also recovery time is longer if u do the dauphine rather than Tour de Suisse.

 

[rata de sentina]

I never thought I would see the day that CE outclimbed the Schlecks which he did to all intents and purposes. He completely pwned them in the Alps by the time they got to the Alpe they were scared to attack him. The only time AS gained time was in that crazy long range attack which was borne of desperation rather than tactical nous. I doubt if he hadn't been so far down he would have ventured such a risk. That it paid off to a modest extent was mainly due to luck, if AC and SS (even Basso) hadn't been on a bad day then I think it's fair to say they would have hauled him in. Otherwise the time gap would have been even greater.

 

[Spaniard]

Why everyone assume that was Andy who lost the TDF? IMO Evans won the TDF not Andy lost it, Andy never had that punch on the High mountains and he was outclimbed a couple of times by Contador's attacks where Evans could follow Alberto's wheel, in the Pyrinees his attacks were too soft, if he had the legs he would have crushed the field.

In the Alps he showed guts, but I think the gap he got in that stage was due to the lack of organization of the other contenders and after that stage Andy was cooked, see how he finished in alpe d'huez.


Being optimistic , Andy's form this year was like 2009.

 

[Tuarts]

These days it seems (at least to me) that in a GT, the main contenders only have 1-2 cards to play. We witnessed the lack of it in the Pyrenees and then saw it in the Alpes.

Andy's card was to go on the Izoard and it worked, he got the gap.

However Cadel's tour was almost defined by the way he rode up the Galibier, taking to the front at a pivotal time where Andy looked like winning the Tour, and riding everyone bar Frank off his wheel in the process. He then played his "card" in the TT. Very well done.

...and Contador's was the Telegraphe

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Maybe I am wrong, But I feel he was better 12 months ago.

I have the same feeling. Last year he could compete with a fit Contador. No way he could have done that this year...

 

[Spaniard]

These days it seems (at least to me) that in a GT, the main contenders only have 1-2 cards to play. We witnessed the lack of it in the Pyrenees and then saw it in the Alpes.

I don't agree, skilled riders has more cards, Evans and Contador can do well in TT, explosive climbs , descending and long climbs so they can put the hammer in differents situations.

 

[Tuarts]

I don't agree, skilled riders has more cards, Evans and Contador can do well in TT, explosive climbs , descending and long climbs so they can put the hammer in differents situations.

Of course they can have more cards than one and yes it is over-simplifying things. Riders abilities in certain areas wasn't what I was getting at, yes Cadel having more of a completeness to him was why Cadel won over Andy. However the main "cards" or actions that each played can be narrowed down to the selections I posted. You could make a case for Cadel on Stage 1,4 too and Andy riding away with Contador on Stage 19 and heck, maybe Frank's display on Luz Ardiden was his Velvet Hammer.

 

[Angliru]

When he and Frank chose to put in their feeble attacks and not truly commit to a real attack in the Pyrenees, that is where the Tour was lost. It appeared by their attitudes and by their actions that they felt that the Tour would be won in Alpes and they took the Pyranees as simply a warmup. One of them would've been able to gain significant time on Evans had they taken the chance. Instead their focus was on Contador and with Contador having lost significant time early, it's my belief with their eyes on Contador, the strategy that he would be tiring come the Alps and by doing this they totally ignored the threat that Evans posed.

 

[Angliru]

It was a total failure that came from arrogance, overconfidence, and stupidity. He did not even recon the ITT. Without the crashes that took out the other contenders, Andy would have struggled to get on the podium.

This sums it up quite well.

 

[thehog]

When he and Frank chose to put in their feeble attacks and not truly commit to a real attack in the Pyrenees, that is where the Tour was lost. It appeared by their attitudes and by their actions that they felt that the Tour would be won in Alpes and they took the Pyranees as simply a warmup. One of them would've been able to gain significant time on Evans had they taken the chance. Instead their focus was on Contador and with Contador having lost significant time early, it's my belief their focus was on Contador, the strategy that he would be tiring come the Alps and by doing this they totally ignored the threat that Evans posted.

The baffling part for me was the lack of a plan. It didn’t appear in the Pyrenees they knew what they really wanted to achieve. Andy came out of those stages with a mere 2 seconds on Evans in a frustrated attack to the line. If Frank wasn’t the GC man then he never should have attacked to gain time as that stopped Andy from gaining time.

It also didn’t appear they were racing to win the Tour de France but racing to beat Contador. On that front they could have distanced Contador by a lot more time in the Pyrenees which would have relegated him out of the race. That way Contador wouldn’t have been a factor and they could have concentrated on working Evans over.

 

[joe1265]

Originally Posted by Damiano Machiavelli
It was a total failure that came from arrogance, overconfidence, and stupidity. He did not even recon the ITT. Without the crashes that took out the other contenders, Andy would have struggled to get on the podium.

+1 to what Damiano says....