How are the others going to beat Froome?

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cellardoor said:
Vasilis said:
Cramps said:
Agreed that between-team alliances unlikely.

What about within-team possibilities? Movistar might have an option: A strong Valverde attack, maybe even train supported, while Quintana sticks on Froome. Leaves Froome the choice of letting Valverde go (risky), or towing Quintana (and everyone else) up the mountain, also risky.

But this would only work if Contdor/Nibali/TJVG let Froome do the work, and they would also be scared of Valverde podium.
And it doesn't work if Froome follows and nobody else can follow him. Even if Quintana can, Valverde will likely be supposed to work for him then.
If guys like Valverde and Kreuziger are able to hang in there tomorrow then I do think they are good cards to potentially play later on. If they are at about 2mins then it poses a massive problem to Froome/Sky if someone like that launches an early attack on a multiple mountain stage. It's always possible that Froome would just go with them, but historically GC leaders in that position have tended to rely on their team and the hope that the attacker will fade and be caught on the last climb.
I misunderstood a little, I thought you meant an early attack on the final climb, like tomorrow. Earlier in the stage is a threat indeed, but early in the stage, Froome will indeed rely on his team. Even if they do stay away and take the jersey, the might crack the next day due to their efforts the day before. In 2013 Froome managed with only six teammates, among them Thomas, who was injured. I think they'll know how to manage stressful situations.
 
Jul 3, 2012
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Netserk said:
Who will BMC have left to help at that point? Pappy Samu?
Caruso is a fine rider if the Giro didn't take too much out of him. He was one of the 5 who finished in the front for BMC in the TTT, which is probably a good sign.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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dacooley said:
i see froome/quintana alliance against ac and nibs the most probable given the pyrenees coming up
Same thoughts..... expressed in another thread a couple of days ago.
 
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Netserk said:
Who will BMC have left to help at that point? Pappy Samu?
Pappy Samu did a very good ITT in 2014 Vuelta, which is consistent with him being yesterday one of the 5 who finished in the front for BMC. In the mountains he played ninja and was dropped as soon as the big 5 (Cont, Froome, Valv, Purito and Aru) fired their engines. I'd be surprised if he stays at the front in the mountains with a main group of less that 20 units.
 
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LaFlorecita said:
dacooley said:
willbick said:
I see the usual Froome/sky haters are fantasizing once again about a latino pact where Nibali , Contador, Purito and Valverde combine forces to act as super domestiques to soften up the skytrain so Quintana can apply the coup de grace and take a glorious GC win at the top of alp duez!! Great stuff guys!!!
this ^^. the obsession of 'please only not froome ffs' is conquering the forums... :(
It is a rather universal sentiment, not just a CN forum thingy.
Froome's not very well-liked. I wonder why :rolleyes:
well, yes but he doesn't need to be generally well liked to win the tour. fans are often pretty cranky guys and whine when see something they dislike so no big deal. that's only a bike race.
 
SeriousSam said:
I can't think of any, and it's not hard to see why: The objectives just don't align. The Big 4 want to win, and if they cannot win, make the podium. Riders like TJ, Valverde, Rodriguez want to make the podium. As Contador and others have stated on numerious occasions, they'll generally take every opportunity to take time on everyone they can. That allows for cooperation to finish off anyone showing weakness, but it doesn't allow for sophisticated Anti Froome tactics. Just not in their interest.

Even if all their interests would be served by everyone sticking to anti Froome tactics, it would still not be in the interest of the individual to stick to the plan. It's a bit like cartels. Just not a Nash equilibrium.
While I agree that an alliance is unlikely, I do think that there are scenarios where GC contenders objectives can align. For example, in a Contador-Quintana alliance, the Contador camp might think it unlikely that Quintana will be able to gain back the time he has lost to Contador; but the Quintana camp might see probable weakness in Contador due his Giro exploits. I.e., in that scenario both camps would recognize Froome as the largest threat by far, while mutually underestimating each other.
 
May 18, 2015
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There are a few things that give me hope for some "unusual" tactics. Everyone knows the SkyPostal train snoozefest will be in full effect, and it will be damn near impossibru to attack off of that. Sky's TTT showed that all their men are primed for "running a train".

I think Froome's little dig at Nibali today in the press was not a good idea. Nibali IS the kind of rider to blow himself up just to give a big "EFF YOU" to his rivals. He may not try a super early attack on the first mountain day, but if he doesn't gain any real time soon, I can easily see him employing the early, hard attack tactic. Perhaps on a day with multiple high passes.

Second, AC is trying for the double. He probably doesn't care about finishing top 5 or perhaps even on the podium, although I suppose winning the Giro and getting on the podium for the Tour would be a decent consolation prize for him. In any case, if he is desperate enough to try something, I can see multiple attacks, and different kinds of attacks from him, though I would expect him to wait for the Alps if he's still behind.

Movistar have the best 1-2 of the top teams. They have to find a way to utilize Valverde to try and disrupt Sky. Having Valverde just be Quintana's pacemaker is useless, because although the two of them are really strong, the overall strength of Sky is much better. The two of them won't be able to do anything against the 4 or 5 of Sky. So Movistar have some cards to play, and I hope they try something unconventional .
 
May 21, 2015
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Pantani Attacks said:
AEAO....attack early, attack often. Froome is tactically inept, he'll blow himself up trying to follow attacks as he is a maniac that way. An alliance is almost essential.
Together they have a chance but they must begin it in earnest this week and before anyone starts thinking defensively of protecting what they have, then it is over.
 
I don't think Froome is as strong as he was in 2013 in the mountains. I have no issues with Froome (besides the way he lets his wife talk al sorts of trash) and respect him as a rider. I don't think he's unbeatable though. The key will be surviving Tuesday. If Contador, Nairo, Tejay don't lose time tomorrow, then the race becomes wide open. We've seen Alberto and Froome drop each other at different times the last couple of times they've raced. Nobody truthfully knows what Quintana is capable of, at this point.

Nobody really knows what Tejay is capable of either. I like Tejay, but for some reason he gives me flashbacks of Bobby Julich riding for Credit Agricole in 2001. He rode perfectly that first week and had many believing that he was back on form and a podium contender, having put time on Armstrong and Ulrich in the first week. Then came the first mountain stage and he was nowhere to be found; dropping before they even reached the Alpe. Obviously in those days the playing field wasn't even so it's not really a fair comparison, but Tejay's style on the bike reminds me a lot of a young Julich.
 
Aug 4, 2011
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rick james said:
ray j willings said:
Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK
So all the GC men just keep attacking each other? Who wins then? Who will tire first? You think the other GC guys will just let Froome do all the chasing? Of course not

Froome will have to chase ,He's in yellow. Froome cannot let Bertie or Quintana etc go up the road.
If Froome don't chase then he will lose the tour. The riders need to use their head and play it smart.
If someone attacks and Quintana or Bertie or Nibs drag Froome back to the attacking rider then they deserve to lose. All they need to do his sit on his wheel and at some point Froome will have to chase and they will get a free ride " if they can keep up"
 
Tomorrow is not a stage where the favorites will attack. But on stage 11 somebody lower down in the GC like Bardet, Peraud, Purito, Fuglsang, Mollema, Gesink and/or Barguil should try to attack on Aspin!

That's about 80k out from the finish with still Toumalet and a Cauterets to be climbed.
 
AlexNYC said:
SeriousSam said:
I can't think of any, and it's not hard to see why: The objectives just don't align. The Big 4 want to win, and if they cannot win, make the podium. Riders like TJ, Valverde, Rodriguez want to make the podium. As Contador and others have stated on numerious occasions, they'll generally take every opportunity to take time on everyone they can. That allows for cooperation to finish off anyone showing weakness, but it doesn't allow for sophisticated Anti Froome tactics. Just not in their interest.

Even if all their interests would be served by everyone sticking to anti Froome tactics, it would still not be in the interest of the individual to stick to the plan. It's a bit like cartels. Just not a Nash equilibrium.
While I agree that an alliance is unlikely, I do think that there are scenarios where GC contenders objectives can align. For example, in a Contador-Quintana alliance, the Contador camp might think it unlikely that Quintana will be able to gain back the time he has lost to Contador; but the Quintana camp might see probable weakness in Contador due his Giro exploits. I.e., in that scenario both camps would recognize Froome as the largest threat by far, while mutually underestimating each other.
Agree with both posts, but I also imagine the dialogue:
"Okay Nairo, let's attack Dawg until he drops.
- Sure Bertie, you first.
- No, you first.
- No, you first..."
 
May 13, 2015
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If they want to beat Froome then they need to isolate him before the last climb (won't happen tomorrow) and make the race chaotic. If they try to go toe-to-toe with him then they will most likely lose. The exception might be Nairo on the hardest stages.
 
Jul 1, 2009
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LaFlorecita said:
dacooley said:
willbick said:
I see the usual Froome/sky haters are fantasizing once again about a latino pact where Nibali , Contador, Purito and Valverde combine forces to act as super domestiques to soften up the skytrain so Quintana can apply the coup de grace and take a glorious GC win at the top of alp duez!! Great stuff guys!!!
this ^^. the obsession of 'please only not froome ffs' is conquering the forums... :(
It is a rather universal sentiment, not just a CN forum thingy.
Froome's not very well-liked. I wonder why :rolleyes:
Hmmmm. He's such a natural guy, never posed. I can't imagine.

http://www.steephill.tv/2015/tour-de-france/09b-RTX1K68E-rest.jpg
 
The key is to wear him down. First however his team has to be destroyed. If his team is able to bring him upto the 3-6 km from finish, it game over as he will probably drop the others or at least easily chase the others. Once his team is wore down, he will be isolated and that is where long range attacks will wear him down as well by forcing him to chase. As long as there are no alliances formed with Sky, he will be in a weaker position.
So strategy wise, 2 week-wear down his team 3 week- wear him down. The same strategy was employed by Astana for Contador but it came too late for them to benefit.
 
Jan 10, 2010
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much will be revealed and known after the first mtf

so far
week 1 mr froome has done very well out of the fab 5
i include tjvg to make up the 5

predictions of froome & sky being inadequate in the echelons
not capable on the cobbles
not capable on the short, steep punchy climbs
have proved to be wrong

mr froome looks strong, confident and has a full team ready to go
expect them to push play and run the well proven race program
it aint broke
don't try to fix it

i am not a fan of froome
however
i think he will throw down a marker on this stage and show the others what they are competing against
if there is time to be gained on main rivals
he will take it

disappointing if he just follows a wheel and looks to minimise time loses
froome to make a statement
the clinic to erupt

how do the other contenders combat froome & sky
i agree with zam
 
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ray j willings said:
Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK
Please don't let me be misunderstood, my friend,
but everybody knows Eric Burdon is the egg man
and he's not riding the Tour this year. :)
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Eclipse said:
Force him wide on a descent so he ends up in a ravine...
I sure hope this is not the only way to beat him. Froome is looking great but it can still be a great battle with Quintana and hopefully 2 or 3 other contenders, though not necessarily the rest of the fab four. Some unknown quantity is always bound to show up.
 
Jul 1, 2009
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The way to beat Froome is with chaos. The base assumption is Froome looks really strong in this Tour, and fresh.

Tomorrow, everyone gets to the foot together and bam! power drag race and VAM to the top. If Froome wins, it will set the tone for the strategy to come, which is either long bold attacks from far out, or wait and watch for opportunities, bad days. If he out-climbs everyone, there are not a lot of options. So Froome is all in tomorrow to out-ride the favorites. So is Quintana. It is a steep and long climb, this is his stuff, he does not mind the "drag race". TJ, Contador, Nibali will try to follow (reasons to come...) unless there is a weakness in Froome. Not surprised here if Quintana gets away somewhere and Froome is locked in with someone like Contador or TJ for most of the climb close behind.

After that:
- The Tourmalet descent is not that technical W bound, lots of long straight drops, and Cauterets is like the backside to Sestriere after the Finestre. So no major selection here unless a favorite gets dropped, etc. on the Toremylegs(off).
- The peaks before PdB are 50 km apart, so that would indeed be a daring attack along those. So this sets up like Tuesday's stage, just more fatigue at the start of PdB. This will also be attack grounds for Froome and Quintana.
- In the transitional stages: Stage 14 offers a 35-40 km out opportunity for attack (not just the final pitch), and Stage 16 into GAP descends the La Rochette (climbs from the W tho) which was memorable from 2003. If you recall who "rocked the baby" you can guess who would attack there or on the climb preceding.
- The Alps then present the REAL chaos stages because climbs and descents are immediately connected (no 20 km valley stretches between). Nibali exploited this in the Dauphine w/Pra Loop. So this the astute place to create chaos, descending attacks, 60 km out, teams and leaders all over the road...That's where the real fireworks will be...So that is where guys like Contador and Nibali will look to create chaos if they can, not in the Pyrenees. Stages 17, 18 and 19 fit this bill.
- The Alpe is essentially a drag race however, 110 km long stage, not a technical descent of the Croix de Fer E to W, so basically the guy in yellow just marks and will get attacked, not an early stage open affair like 2003 for instance.

In summary, I think the Pyrenees will be anti-climatic in terms of chaos/attacks. It's the Alps and the third week are where it will get crazy. I would even say guys like Contador may lose time in the Pyrenees (Quintana may gain back some), but the gaps going into the Alps won't be so large (<2 min) as to be insurmountable when chaos is injected. (BTW a Giro-fresh Contador with no crashes would have been a different story).
 
Aug 4, 2011
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I think the way to beat Froome is confusion. Bertie , Quintana , TJ, Valverde .and Nibs and their teams should all wear this on the back of their jerseys to freak Froome out of the race
 

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