How are the others going to beat Froome?

[MatParker117]

Re:

It is rare, as is gaining significant time on descents.

Particularly as Froome is very good at following Pete Kennaugh down.

 

[ad9898]

Re:

Yup. "Real mountains". Entirely different thing.

Agree with this, just the height re less oxygen is just one of the many different issues. If the weather is bad on just one day Froome could suffer, he's little more than a skeleton sprayed with skin at the min, not good when it's 1 degree Celsius and a half hour descent.

I know it was a dubious era but the teams need to look at what Armstrong and his team did almost constantly and not allow that to happen, the tops teams need to collude and against Sky and break them.

 

[ray j willings]

Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Are there even examples of alliances against the leader in recent GT history?

 

[rick james]

Re:

Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK

So all the GC men just keep attacking each other? Who wins then? Who will tire first? You think the other GC guys will just let Froome do all the chasing? Of course not

 

[Angliru]

Re:

I see the usual Froome/sky haters are fantasizing once again about a latino pact where Nibali , Contador, Purito and Valverde combine forces to act as super domestiques to soften up the skytrain so Quintana can apply the coup de grace and take a glorious GC win at the top of alp duez!! Great stuff guys!!!

Why can't you address the topic instead of opening with your usual generalized offensive against anyone that doesn't support your narrow perspective? We are 9 days into the Tour and haven't hit the real mountains yet. Things can change over the course of the next 2 weeks.

 

[SeriousSam]

Are there even examples of alliances against the leader in recent GT history?

I can't think of any, and it's not hard to see why: The objectives just don't align. The Big 4 want to win, and if they cannot win, make the podium. Riders like TJ, Valverde, Rodriguez want to make the podium. As Contador and others have stated on numerious occasions, they'll generally take every opportunity to take time on everyone they can. That allows for cooperation to finish off anyone showing weakness, but it doesn't allow for sophisticated Anti Froome tactics. Just not in their interest.

Even if all their interests would be served by everyone sticking to anti Froome tactics, it would still not be in the interest of the individual to stick to the plan. It's a bit like cartels. Just not a Nash equilibrium.

 

[Cramps]

Agreed that between-team alliances unlikely.

What about within-team possibilities? Movistar might have an option: A strong Valverde attack, maybe even train supported, while Quintana sticks on Froome. Leaves Froome the choice of letting Valverde go (risky), or towing Quintana (and everyone else) up the mountain, also risky.

But this would only work if Contdor/Nibali/TJVG let Froome do the work, and they would also be scared of Valverde podium.

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

Majka can put Sky under pressure, if he's in the break and Contador manages to bridge towards him.

Then Contador should first be able to drop Froome/they should let him go. If they let the break get 10 minutes, I don't see how he can help Contador.

Breaks don't typically hold 10 mins to the finish though and Majka can always drop back from the break if necessary. The problem as I see it is that it's too obvious. I can't see Sky allowing a break to go that contains Majka. Contador's better option is if someone like Navarro gets in a break

Edit: typo

 

[Queens Boulevard]

I don't think there's any real chance of a multi team alliance. I also don't really think there would be any team tactic that could be employed that would put Sky under any real pressure, since their doms are probably stronger than everyone else's. Maybe if Majka hadn't dropped 40 minutes already he and Contador could play the multi pronged attack game but I don't see Kruizinger, Valverde, or any of team Astana really putting the fright into team Sky. Descents don't generally create enough in the way of time differentials and long range attacks aren't as successful against power teams like the Sky train.

So simple answer to the this topic is "Be individually stronger than he is in the mountains". Which is still possible. This first week hasn't proven anything. Nibali is still the shark who absolutely destroyed last year's Tour. Quintana is a mountain specialist who's weaknesses have already been exploited and he's still only 2 minutes down. Contador is the best rider of this generation and has planned specifically all year to be stronger a little later in this race, him being 1 minute down on Froome is not the end of the world here (it's probably not even that for off the original plan).

 

[Vasilis]

Agreed that between-team alliances unlikely.

What about within-team possibilities? Movistar might have an option: A strong Valverde attack, maybe even train supported, while Quintana sticks on Froome. Leaves Froome the choice of letting Valverde go (risky), or towing Quintana (and everyone else) up the mountain, also risky.

But this would only work if Contdor/Nibali/TJVG let Froome do the work, and they would also be scared of Valverde podium.

And it doesn't work if Froome follows and nobody else can follow him. Even if Quintana can, Valverde will likely be supposed to work for him then.

 

[cellardoor]

Agreed that between-team alliances unlikely.

What about within-team possibilities? Movistar might have an option: A strong Valverde attack, maybe even train supported, while Quintana sticks on Froome. Leaves Froome the choice of letting Valverde go (risky), or towing Quintana (and everyone else) up the mountain, also risky.

But this would only work if Contdor/Nibali/TJVG let Froome do the work, and they would also be scared of Valverde podium.

And it doesn't work if Froome follows and nobody else can follow him. Even if Quintana can, Valverde will likely be supposed to work for him then.

If guys like Valverde and Kreuziger are able to hang in there tomorrow then I do think they are good cards to potentially play later on. If they are at about 2mins then it poses a massive problem to Froome/Sky if someone like that launches an early attack on a multiple mountain stage. It's always possible that Froome would just go with them, but historically GC leaders in that position have tended to rely on their team and the hope that the attacker will fade and be caught on the last climb.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK

So all the GC men just keep attacking each other? Who wins then? Who will tire first? You think the other GC guys will just let Froome do all the chasing? Of course not

They should do. It would crack him.
Say Nibali attacks from a long range and there's a group of GC guys left to chase him down. Wouldn't it make sense to make Froome chase down the move and drop him afterwards for Contador/Quintana? Considering it's the only way they might distance Froome - Even if Nibali succeeds his attack, wouldn't it still make sense for them to allow Nibali some time, if it means that they distance Froome? Afterall, they should weigh the benefits of dropping Froome higher than the costs of losing time to Nibali.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Let's not be too pesimistic. First of all Froome still has to show his superiority in high mountains. Even if he's the strongest in the Pyrenees his style of riding could cost him energy deficit in the third week - I'm sure that Quintana (and maybe Contador) will be very strong in the third week. What is more, Nibali could try fireworks on descends and of course Movistar and Tinkoff are able to isolate Froome earlier (Sky may have a weaker day) and perform long distance attacks (with leaders or super-domestiques). So there are many options but all depends on the situation after first mountain stages.

 

[SeriousSam]

If Nibali attacks from a long range, all the super domestiques are still there and they'll do the chasing.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK

So all the GC men just keep attacking each other? Who wins then? Who will tire first? You think the other GC guys will just let Froome do all the chasing? Of course not

They should do. It would crack him.
Say Nibali attacks from a long range and there's a group of GC guys left to chase him down. Wouldn't it make sense to make Froome chase down the move and drop him afterwards for Contador/Quintana? Considering it's the only way they might distance Froome - Even if Nibali succeeds his attack, wouldn't it still make sense for them to allow Nibali some time, if it means that they distance Froome? Afterall, they should weigh the benefits of dropping Froome higher than the costs of losing time to Nibali.

If Nibali attacks then one of Poels,Konig,Porteand G will just set a pace

 

[Netserk]

Re:

If Nibali attacks from a long range, all the super domestiques are still there and they'll do the chasing.

But if he attacks over the top of Allos and Glandon, perhaps with someone up the road in the latter case, domestiques won't be enough for Froome and we could see someone TJ him again on Pra-Loup.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

If Nibali attacks from a long range, all the super domestiques are still there and they'll do the chasing.

But if he attacks over the top of Allos and Glandon, perhaps with someone up the road in the latter case, domestiques won't be enough for Froome and we could see someone TJ him again on Pra-Loup.

I'm afraid that if contador and nibali do something like that BMC will help sky. Rightfully so since the podium is their aim, they know tj can't beat froome.

 

[Netserk]

Who will BMC have left to help at that point? Pappy Samu?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

We know zilch about how everyone is going to go on the real mountains.

+1.

No need to go deeper into discussions!!

 

[SeriousSam]

TJ himself might pull himself if that were to happen, as he stands to lose much, but I do think Froome chasing would be the most likely outcome in your scenario.

Let's hope Nibali is in form, I'd love to see something like that happen.

 

[Publicus]

They're not. Only Froome can beat himself. And I'm not being flippant.

 

[Cramps]

Re: Re:

Attack and keep attacking from a long way out. The egg man will crumble. If his rivals just wait for the last climb in every stage then it will be hard to get back all the time they have lost .....ATTACK ATTACK

So all the GC men just keep attacking each other? Who wins then? Who will tire first? You think the other GC guys will just let Froome do all the chasing? Of course not

They should do. It would crack him.
Say Nibali attacks from a long range and there's a group of GC guys left to chase him down. Wouldn't it make sense to make Froome chase down the move and drop him afterwards for Contador/Quintana? Considering it's the only way they might distance Froome - Even if Nibali succeeds his attack, wouldn't it still make sense for them to allow Nibali some time, if it means that they distance Froome? Afterall, they should weigh the benefits of dropping Froome higher than the costs of losing time to Nibali.

If the only thing the GC contenders cared about was the 1st place, then maybe this could work. If Contador really doesn't care about 2nd, then he might be willing to take this kind of risk. But most of the GC contenders care about podium, and by letting Nibali go, they risk podium place. Game of chicken and Froome might feel his place is secure and that it's up to the others to protect their podium.

Just can't see between-team alliances working when chasing the same objective.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Who will BMC have left to help at that point? Pappy Samu?

Tj will help froome, he'll just pull for him.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

He's going to be tough to beat. My gut feeling is the only way he get's beat (bar a big problem) is Quintana taking seconds from him on every finish. 10 secs here, 20 there etc etc and bringing the time gap down like that over a few stages, until the last couple where it gets decided.

It could go down other ways, but that's what I feel is the most likely to succeed. That said....Froome will be very tough to beat with this lead. I think Nibs is done and Contador just doesn't look right to me. Tomorrow should be a lot of fun.