• The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?


  • Total voters
    120
  • Poll closed .
75% ish and if you ask me to pick an over/under on that number I'll go higher.

I think you have to break it down into loss conditions and for me there are no loss conditions based on pure strength or team strength even if he's slightly worse at the Tour than he would without a Giro. Then we're talking about crashes et al. and Pogacar crashes very little and nobody really fights him hard for position and his team is always in front of the peloton and all that, so I think random events are much less likely then you'd normally assume as well.

To me it just looks like people are projecting the logic of Contador and Froome Giro/Tour doubles on Pogacar, which is ignoring about 5 million data points in recent years that the common logic of 2000s and 2010s cycling is merely a joke to Pogacar.

It's weird how most don't question that he'll 99% guaranteed will win with Redoute attack today yet keep underestimating him in other areas.
 
75% ish and if you ask me to pick an over/under on that number I'll go higher.

I think you have to break it down into loss conditions and for me there are no loss conditions based on pure strength or team strength even if he's slightly worse at the Tour than he would without a Giro. Then we're talking about crashes et al. and Pogacar crashes very little and nobody really fights him hard for position and his team is always in front of the peloton and all that, so I think random events are much less likely then you'd normally assume as well.

To me it just looks like people are projecting the logic of Contador and Froome Giro/Tour doubles on Pogacar, which is ignoring about 5 million data points in recent years that the common logic of 2000s and 2010s cycling is merely a joke to Pogacar.

It's weird how most don't question that he'll 99% guaranteed will win with Redoute attack today yet keep underestimating him in other areas.
I'm not as bullish as you that he is certain to be the strongest rider in the Tour. As backloaded as it is, I think there's a fair risk that he has a bad day or two in the last weak, worse than he was on Marie Blanque.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gregrowlerson
I'm not as bullish as you that he is certain to be the strongest rider in the Tour. As backloaded as it is, I think there's a fair risk that he has a bad day or two in the last weak, worse than he was on Marie Blanque.
Problem is the Tour route is really easy for him so recovery shouldn't be an issue. There's effectively 4 big mountain stages, and all are gonna be about the MTF basically, and if Jumbo don't bring Vingegaard nobody is gonna go crazy about putting the TSS in. Roglic isn't gonna drop mano a mano I don't think, and if they're equals I don't question Rogla's magical TdF bottle factor.

But I guess the main speculation would be why Pogacar sucked early in the Tour last year and why he hasn't bothered with the Vuelta after the Tour. And I think the answer for the latter is mostly the super heavy spring schedule he's done in 2021-2023, in combination with the WC and Olympics that came right after in 2 of 3 years.